Now is the Time

[CharlesHarris]

Depending upon which doom and gloom estimate you choose to believe, the various news media claim from 10-40,00 Americans stranded in Astan. This is not going to end well.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...istan.html

https://www.witn.com/2021/08/18/camp-lej...l-airport/

https://lieber.westpoint.edu/afghanistan...perations/

[bigpaul]

say what you like about Trump I dont think he would have made such a mess of the withdrawal as Biden has.

[Ajax]

(16 August 2021, 15:26)LAC Wrote: Chicoms done a deal with the Teletubbies and Sleepyhead! I'm betting the Chicoms annihilate the Teletubbies after things settle down a bit and annex Afghanistan into the PRC.

Spot on. I just wish the USA had occupied UK and then bugged out and left their M16s laying about.

Brace for September - it will likely be hell.

[Ajax]

(16 August 2021, 15:38)Mortblanc Wrote: Paul, where have you been for the past 20 years?

The Taliban is the multi-national military wing of a radicalized Islamic sect. They have no national affiliation. They operate wherever they can form a base to use as a training center and go out from there to do their work. Afghanistan has been a long term favorite since they have access to large scale opium farms to support their need for arms.

They are the group that has been cutting off heads, blowing up car-bombs and staging knife attacks all over the world, including GB.

This success will embolden them to new feats in the west.

Certain centralised agencies bird's have seen your tax dollar getting mobilised into Iran - just sayin'

[Tartar Horde]

(16 August 2021, 21:05)CharlesHarris Wrote: Throughout the history of Afghanistan various attempts to "colonize", "liberate" or "modernize" the country have been attempted.

"Maurya Empire, the Greek Empire of Alexander the Great of Macedon, Rashidun Caliphate, the Mongol Empire led by Genghis Khan, the Timurid Empire of Timur, the Mughal Empire, various Persian Empires, the Sikh Empire, the British Empire , the Soviet Union, and the United States".

"There are as many as 14 recognized ethnic groups in the country, with Pashtuns making up between 40 percent and 50 percent of the population. Tajiks account for about 25 percent, while Hazaras and Uzbeks are about 9 percent each. Then there are a handful of other groups in smaller numbers."

As more recent events have shown neither the British Empire, the Soviet Union nor the United States proved to have the "staying power" let alone the will to transform a multi-tribal country into a unified trusted ally, or for the people there to embrace whatever form of government those occupying powers offered.

In monetary value, as of April 2,021, the US has spent $2.261 trillion. Far more priceless are the lives lost, US service members 2,448, US contractors 3,846, NATO forces 1,144 and over 66,000 Afghans.

So, in the 20 years we were there what have we accomplished?

Nation Building?
Unifying the population?
A better life for its citizens?

As I watched events unfold during the last 72 hours I became speechless as some Department of State minion stated on national television;

"This is nothing like Vietnam".

Really?

Ask yourself the following;

Has the United States not learned anything since 1968?

Do you really believe we won't make the same mistakes again?

How will other countries view our long term commitments?

How will our enemies?

It troubles me that this nation continues to believe paying the "Dane Guild", during any international conflict where our forces are involved, will always resolve the issue, then being clueless as to why we don't get the results we expected.

Part of the reason for the rapid collapse is that the security forces have always been heavily infiltrated by Taliban fighters.
They simply changed clothes when the US and out paychecks ended in any area.

A more critical aspect is that Kabul has never had much control beyond the cities. Afghans are tribal and they reflexively resist central authority. Taliban understand this and use it to their advantage by leveraging tribal structures that exist in every valley. They also don’t mess with the poppy trade, as Afghan farmers use poppy as currency and cash crop.

We didn’t properly colonize the place because it’s not a country. It’s 3 nations occupying adjacent territory. Taliban know how to play both ends against the middle in that situation. They also use Islam as a tool. Taliban simply understand reality on the ground because they live there. Pakistan helps out a lot with intel and material support because it keeps the fighting North of the border.

Astan will never be like the west. They don’t want to live like us. They have 7th Century society with 21st Century technology.

Corruption and incompetence are certainly factors in the swift consolidation under Islamic rule. Not the proximate causes tho.

Dan Greenfield summarized it nicely and gives a fair analysis. A bit of oversimplification; but generally accurate.

Mission creep is a real thing. It’s a political disease without cure. Soldiers and Marines on the line seem immune to it.

The fundamental purpose of war is to bend the enemy to your will; to make them subordinate to your command. It’s a wrestling match to be sure, where strength, commitment, skill, and luck all play a role.

Conquest is different from punitive war. We seem to have forgotten that distinction. Exporting democracy (or anything else) is a component of neither.

Our leaders of political both parties have failed miserably.

Genghis didn't try to colonise them, he destroyed them.