Food for thought: The variable value of our preps.

[Lightspeed]

At start of this heating season our stock of coal ( estimated on the basis of subsistence cooking and a little heating ) stood at just short of 4 years-worth . A good prep or so I thought.

But the reality is that this is heating fuel, and gets eaten into pretty quickly once we’re into the heating season. By Christmas that reserve was down to half of its start of season value. More was ordered and delivered bring us back to the start of season stock level.

Our heating season can extend well into May, and normal usage will see the fallback reserve dropping to 16 months worth. If we have abnormally severe weather, this figure will reduce to just 6 month’s worth.

If a supply chain issue had stopped the top-up delivery we’d have been lucky to get right through the season.

This has gotten me thinking. My belief is that a catastrophic, long term fuel supply chain problem is unlikely. So, at first if there was a slowing down, I’m pretty sure that we’d go on consuming from our perceived large stock at the same rate as normal on the assumption that things would get back to normal before things became critical for us. After all who wants to live in a cold house when the means to keep toasty is both immediately at hand and already paid for? It would be some time before we’d realise it would be a long term disruption to supply. What appears to be a healthy 4 year stock, in probability, would have been eroded to around a quarter of its original value before hard truth stared us in the face.

It’s the same with all daily consumables. Water, bottled gas, vehicle fuel , rice, potatoes rotating tinned goods etc.

Food for thought: Unless a prep is set aside, isolated from main stores, its value should be considered dynamic, and probably best assesse at only a percentage of what we were expecting from it. This is even more the case if the prep in question is prone to spoilage with time.

[Mortblanc]

I am confused with the analysis here.

If your 4 year supply was half used in 3 months then it was not a 4 year supply.

If cold weather will diminish it at 3x the normal rate then the "normal" can not be used as a prep standard.

We prep/plan for the worst case scenerio. If things are "normal" we do not need the preps and the only thing you are doing different from your neighbors is ordering by the 3 month time frame rather than by the one month time frame while a little more than you need is in the bin.

And with solid fuel heat sources interruption of the supply chain and severe weather are the two main factors one preps to meet. I can not see planning around those two things being "normal" during any crisis/strike/disaster/weather disruption.

When I heated with wood I had a one year supply in reserve due to the need for fresh cut wood to cure. I stocked for the worst weather we could have by factoring the capacity of the stove and its burn rate of logs per day. I did not count on the norm with added wood for severe weather, I counted on severe weather with surplus if things were mild, but I never counted on having mild winters as being "normal". That is prepping for failure.

[Pete Grey]

We live in a bungalow with gas central heating and have a “little wenlock” multi fuel stove which when well stoked up will heat the whole house and cut out the heating. We normally burn “stoveheat premium” smokeless fuel, last winter we used 30 25kg sacks.

I’ve never thought much about interruptions to the fuel supply chain, we normally order 40 sacks each time, this gives us some discount and does build up a stock, like any other prep fuel needs to be stored dry and secure,

If we are to store more we will need another shed, if we stock an extra 40 sacks with care it could stretch to 3 years, then we will to burn wood. Another shed would be useful as it would free up workshop space.

[MaryN]

In a previous property we reckoned on getting through 3 cordes of wood in the "burning" season - this was in a large Charnwood stove with a 10kw output. That is a lot of wood to stack and store for the season. At the moment - with one open fire and a smaller stove (4.8kw) - I reckon we are probably getting through the same amount with a burning season of, say, end September to end of March. I have approx. 3 cordes in hand in addition to the season's stock. We will start to restock again in Spring.

[Lightspeed]

MB: I see the confusion. We stock the coal specifically to fuel the CH furnace, but it can be used very effectively on out muli-fuel stove. The four year value was based on " subsistence cooking and a little heating" on that stove. Subsistence is key here.

In addition we have a large wood store containing many years worth of fully seasoned fuel, so we're not 100% dependent on coal. Coal does have the advantage of much longer burn times though.

PG

[Easy rider]

We have gas ch , this in the main heats out property pluss dhw.

We too have a few open fires that we store logs and coal for.
However these are only used 6-10 Times per season when weather is very very cold or heating ch has a problem until it's fixed.

We have built up solid fuel stock this season because the winter a seem to be getting colder longer.

This coupled with the potential gas shortage earlier months back via Austria line disruption were the reasoning.
I believe oil shortage were in highlands months back too as tankers couldn't dock in ports to unload ?.
Looking further according to scientists 2030 UK could see very extreme winter a mini ice age even.
Here in uk we are not used to such.I too can see shortages of gas,price inflation as demand surges.
Coal supply running out ,wood running out.
Over the next few years we will build up a substantial store just in case.
My own thoughts instinct not just scientists tell me that at some point the planet could face another mini ice age if not extreme temp change .
If nothing else stocking up will buffer against fuel price hikes in coal timer in future.
Other concerns are that many modern houses have no open fires or chimney so to speek for open fires anymore.

[Straight Shooter]

Well i have plenty of fallen trees at the moment ,i have logged up and split two cords last week and stacked out....there is easy another fourteen cords to do .......on a trail close by there must be at least ten cords on the ground just laying about...all that is required is my trusty powered dumper to get it back for processing , there again i am lucky to have have access to a huge amount of trees , in 34 years of living here i have hardly made a dent.

[Lightspeed]

(12 February 2018, 12:08)Easy rider Wrote: If nothing else stocking up will buffer against fuel price hikes in coal timer in future.
Other concerns are that many modern houses have no open fires or chimney so to speek for open fires anymore.

This is a good strategy IMHO. Build up a stockpile and use it to enable you to get through peak demand and then purchase replacement stock less expensively out of season.

Of course there is the important caveat that the backup stock should be stored in such a way as to prevent it spoiling. This applies both to wood and coal.

Re no-chimney houses: You're right. More and more houses are being built without chimneys now, and those that do have them, they are really only good for chinz wood burners. The good news is that those self same houses are by and large built using super lightweight high insulation blocks. So it could be viable to put a suitable micro-multi-fuel stove and steel tube chimney into storeage, and if absolutely necessary to commission it, to chistle a hole through the cheese-quality wall to allow the chimney tube to pass through?