Activity On The Sun Flatlines:Bitterly Cold Winters Ahead?

[Prepper1]

The Sun is almost completely blank, all but devoid of sunspots. This is odd considering we are meant to be at the solar maximum this summer. NASA has released a chart showing the downturn in activity





The maximum could be double peaked which would see a further surge in activity over the next couple of months, but scientists are split on this. Scientific opinions vary not least because observations indicate that the Sun’s magnetic field is about to flip. This only happens at the solar maximum.

Todays sunspot number is 12. That figure is the Boulder number which is about 35% higher than the International sunspot number used by some other countries. The difference comes from the way the sunspots are counted.

There are worries that the very low activity during the current cycle,Cycle 24, could lead to decades of cold weather due to the knock on effect going into Cycle 25.

Sunspots need a minimum amount of magnetic energy in order to form in the first place. The Gauss laws of physics determine the levels at which sunspots form, and this is acknowledged to be 1500 Gauss. Each solar cycle is affected by the length and strength of the one before it. Cycle 24 has been long and weak, indicating from past records that Cycle 25 could be even longer and even weaker than this one.

The worry with that is that the historical record shows that long weak sunspot cycles lead to much colder weather heading towards the cycle minimum. In this case the next 11 years, and then for a decade or so after the end of the cycle. Data from Cycle 24 has indicated to scientists that Cycle 25 may be so weak that few, if any sunspots form. This could give us 30-40 years of colder weather. These were the conditions at the time of the Dalton minimum and the better known Maunder minimum when the weather changed giving cool summers and bitterly cold winters.

There were many other periods of cold weather that back up the work that was primarily carried out by Livingston and Penn. The Wolf and Sporer minimums both saw low sunspot activity followed by extremely cold weather.

Those scientists looking at long term weather trends are already saying that the climate is cooling. More and more people are ‘coming out’ and stating that AGW (anthropogenic global warming) has ceased. Some question if it even existed in the first place.

The trends show that there has been no warming since 1998 and that cooling has actually started. Thankfully it is gradual rather than the globe being plunged into a new ice age overnight. There is currently no evidence that we are closer to an ice age today than we were 15 years ago, but ice ages come and go, and we are ‘overdue’.

Ice ages are interspersed with interglacials, we are in an interglacial right now. There are periods where the ice retreats and a warmer more hospitable climate prevails. How long the current interglacial lasts is anybody’s guess, sadly, that’s something the Sun can’t tell us.


The Maunder Minimum

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

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gives you something to think about... global cooling alone, or entry into a new Ice age over the next few decades....

Only time will tell I suppose, better stock up on the arctic gear just in case...

[Lightspeed]

Thanks for this P1

Very interesting stuff.

The scientific community has been banging on about global warming for the last 10 years or so, and the phenomenum is now broadly accepted. What triggered you to research global cooling?

[bigpaul]

I reckon we are due for a proper cold winter.

[Skean Dhude]

Lightspeed, Global cooling has been the thing for a while now. It is why it went from Global Warming where we were going to cook to Climate Change where we don't know what the fuck is going on but we will tax you because it is your fault.

[Prepper1]

Tut tut SD was that an anti government reply?
Shouldn't that be deleted.....

Shame on you...

Well anyway, have a look at the data, it may well be a new trend but Nigel Farage also did a piece on it in European Parliament because they are still banging on about taxing you more aggressively for global warming, so Global coolings not government policy yet.

He showed and had data to prove at least that the antarctic Ice shelf grew by 60%

These fluctuations are completely normal as most sensible people agree, other data shows mans impact on the climate via warming has been negligible anyway.

BUT THE POINT TO THE ARTICLE THAT YOU MAY HAVE MISSED is that we MAY if the cooling trend continues experience much colder winters ending up in a Maunder Minimum mini Ice age.

Whilst not dramatic on its own, it makes sense to prepare for the possibility if you havent already does it not?

Nobody is saying the really cold winters are guaranteed after all the planets a living thing and changes its mind willy nilly with what its doing especially weather wise, we just cant reliably predict such things, its just pure guess work.

Most scientists agree we're in a warm period between ice ages and that we are overdue for another.

The point of this article is to make you think.

Have you prepared in case of really bad winters, with that comes power failures because of ice or snow on the power lines, possibly no transport because were ALWAYS unprepared ie no gritters, etc.

Normally its a mild inconvenience to us with roads closed for a few days, and no school for a week or so, imagine if it were for four, five months at a time with power outages, central heating not working because yes you have gas but the boiler wont work without electric.
etc etc bla bla bla...

[Nix]

Global warming, ice from the poles melting.....ice shelf grows, new ice age cometh.......global warming.......ice age.....global warming.....ice age......

Wish they'd make up their ferking minds!

Either way we could be in trouble here in the UK cos desalination of the Gulf Stream will give us much colder and extreme winters but a new ice age, well, kinda speaks for itself! It'll happen but how fast and when are the burning questions that no one knows the answers to.

Heads we win, tails we lose.

[Skean Dhude]

P1,

It is already on my list. That is the most expensive task to prep for. I'm still short my nuclear reactor.

[Sunna]

iv noticed over the past 5/6 winters it has got colder for longer , my main way of telling is how much wood i use and how much i have to stock up .
iv even built a new wood store this summer beleveing that it going to be at least as cold as last winter if not more so .

stock up now while you can....

[Lightspeed]

P1 I've had my nose to the grindstone for a good few months now and have misses the general chatter about global cooling the SD refers to.

Yes, I prep for cold, long winters and currentlky have multi=layer solutions and fall backs in place.

Certainly the last few winters have been the worst we;ve had for a few years, but nothing really spectacular.

Personally I'm skeptical of all the PR driven fear mongering generated by scientists looking for research funding and opportunist governments who use that PR to find new and novel ways to tax the hell out of us.

[Prepper1]

;

(16 September 2013, 14:48)Skean Dhude Wrote: P1,

It is already on my list. That is the most expensive task to prep for. I'm still short my nuclear reactor.

theres probably a nice man in marrakesh that can get you one of them cheap