Gold. Is it any use?

[bigpaul]

(11 December 2013, 23:23)Scythe13 Wrote:

(11 December 2013, 10:19)bigpaul Wrote:

(10 December 2013, 22:38)Scythe13 Wrote: History is doomed to repeat itself.

only if you let it.(those who ignore-the mistakes of-) history are deemed to repeat it

I think that as a species, we are more than willing to let it repeat, time and again.

then break the cycle.

[Timelord]

Gold or similar high value items like diamonds, jewellery etc are only any use for expediating your ass over a national border to a safer place or to buy a boat or plane passage away from danger. That is about all it was any good for historically if you are in the middle of a SHTF situation. Historically then only barter of items of use have been used during a SHTF crisis. As pointed out by Scythe, human nature in regard to shiny precious metals has not changed over the millennia BUT this does not mean it has stayed at a constant worth.

The myth of gold & silver is a dangerous misdirection. It is only able to be used when there is a surplus of material items available. It is then used as a medium of exchange in the form of a substitute material value. It is in a way similar to a bank note or promissory note as they are in reality - "I Owe the Bearer the sum of this note", The "I owe" relates to state who backs and regulates the medium on a great scale.
For precious metals then it is on an individual one to one basis, but the value of wealth or goods or material objects - whatever you wish to call it, is likewise temporarily stored in the substitute medium of the precious metal. Again I state to you, that throughout human history, any precious metal medium of exchange only has a worth when
A) there is a surplus of wealth in whatever material form that takes, to be able to barter with and
B) the person you are bartering with regards the substitute precious metal as having a value you are prepared to accept in exchange.

Historically and all throughout our history, ancient and to this very day, human nature has defined the worth of a refugee passage as being worth a very great amount of valuable metals and jewels. This could take the form of all your family silver plates in exchange for one sack of potatoes to feed your starving family or all your jewellery you and your wife are wearing in exchange for that boat passage out of a war torn or major disaster area. This is the reality of human nature and gold and silver in a SHTF event. The talk of markets and exchange rates is all about now, pre SHTF and will not matter one iota when SHTF for real.

Secondly, at any other time you are in possession of precious metals or jewellery etc, it could attract unwanted attention to yourself in a very bad way. In Germany post WW2, the only people accepting gold and silver in exchange for goods like food mainly, were the farmers living in the rural areas around the cities. They had a surplus of food and could afford to accumulate large amounts of other peoples family wealth of precious metals in exchange for only minor amounts of food. they became pretty wealthy from this and there was much bad feeling in later years. The farmers could afford to sit on the metals until the economy eventually picked up and the metals resumed there original PSHTF prices. This is due to the limited scope of the disaster and their own surplus of materials/food production.
If we take away the limited scope of disaster and make it a "Biggie" and if there was no surplus of food/goods due to the type disaster, then the precious metals would have been of no value whatsoever to those people.

This discussion now brings up two further points.
1) Gold and silver and other precious materials do have a very useful trading value when an economy or bartering individuals have achieved a surplus. Then it can be used as a substitute value of material wealth as described before. This is the norm through history and is where coins also originated from in the form of discs of a precious metal, stamped and regulated by an overseeing authority.
VERY IMPORTANTLY :- 2) Having a prep based ideology and putting your hard earned labour or surplus wealth into precious meals could in fact be seriously detrimental to the realisation of your material preps. The reason for this is that as discussed earlier, if the SHTF or even the PSHTF scenario results in massive devaluation of the precious metals in relation to real physical goods, then what you are in effect doing is putting a chunk of your "now assets" into a medium which may massively devalue in a time when you wish to reconvert it back into useful real goods. "That will be £20,000 pounds" worth of gold for this nice working Remingtom 870 Wingmaster 12gauge shotgun...... Oh.. and that lovely ring there your wife is wearing for a box of shells please ..... Take it or leave it mister"

"Empty all your jewellery and rings, cash into the bag and then you can get on board.. That's you and your wife, not the old folk!"

Think carefully about the reality of strife torn scenarios, not what the best return you can get is based on current market models and some online expert.

Disregard any of the above as you feel fit. lol all the way to the bank.... lol .. TL.

[Me_Again]

Can't argue with any of that really. But I always emphasised that the PMs should only be a part of an overall strategy, another string to your bow. Someone should only buy into that piece of prepping when they've done/bought all else that is needed, AND they have a plan for turn over/cycling. Investments are for the NOW not the then, yeah that's kind of obvious.

If I could buy a Remington with it and if I needed one [which wouldn't be a bad thing to have around if TSHTF] then it would in fact be a good buy. Not only that but it would be a buy that you wouldn't achieve by any other means.

There's another possible thread that you only touched on. If as I keep hearing TPTB [and I don't mean the government] are moving towards changing the way things work, maybe a return to 'yellow stuff' backed purchases instead of the worthless paper backed purchases today. Bonds are the big problem, in fact owing the interest on bonds is the big problem. I think China is hedging its bets, buying US bonds for now and taking the interest, but also buying the yellow stuff' as fast as it can because they too think that things can't go on as now, and, they have an idea of what will come.

There could be a time when, as in the Weimar Republic, you desperately need to buy something and they won't take paper.

So like a good prepping planner I want to have the ability to do some dealing.

PS Bearing in mind my first posts regarding a virus as the source of the STHTF, I forgot to mention FFP3 masks. These are fairly cheap and will keep the bugs on the outside, to minimise your exposure OR, in the unhappy event that someone does get ill they can be worn to keep bugs IN. These are just like the masks that people wear in dusty environments but they will work. Cheap plastic gloves would be a good idea too..

[Timelord]

You are quite right and I agree. Regards, TL.

[Scythe13]

I totally get where you're coming from TL. PM's are only a PART of prepping.

But let me play this another way....using your scenarios:

"That will be £20,000 pounds" worth of gold for this nice working Remingtom 870 Wingmaster 12gauge shotgun...... Oh.. and that lovely ring there your wife is wearing for a box of shells please ..... Take it or leave it mister.....WHAT NO GOLD OR SILVER?!?!?! Then you can [insert expletive] right off fella!

"Empty all your jewellery and rings, cash into the bag and then you can get on board.. That's you and your wife, not the old folk! WHAT, IS THAT ALL YOU'VE GOT?!?!?! SOD RIGHT OFF!!!! NEXT....

You're right about people being ripped off for their PM's as refugees. 100% on there. For a lot of people in WW2, the gold was moved to Swiss banks for safe keeping, but some of the deposits were used to buy freedom.

Personally, I plan to be in a position where I can get the gold and silver off other people, but not too much as to make myself a target.

If you have a load of gold and silver already, nice going. If you have a load of tins and the alike, nice going. If you're just starting, PMs can wait for a while for you!

However, PMs are currently of value, and as I predict, if the collapse is financial, then we'll see the purchasing power go through the roof. When it does, I'm cashing out to different assets, e.g. property (land), and other things. Post SHTF, I plan to be well enough established with preps and skills to not really need to barter, or to keep barter to a minimum...thanks to the preps from PMs.

[Timelord]

(13 December 2013, 19:03)Scythe13 Wrote: I totally get where you're coming from TL. PM's are only a PART of prepping.

But let me play this another way....using your scenarios:

"That will be £20,000 pounds" worth of gold for this nice working Remingtom 870 Wingmaster 12gauge shotgun...... Oh.. and that lovely ring there your wife is wearing for a box of shells please ..... Take it or leave it mister.....WHAT NO GOLD OR SILVER?!?!?! Then you can [insert expletive] right off fella!

"Empty all your jewellery and rings, cash into the bag and then you can get on board.. That's you and your wife, not the old folk! WHAT, IS THAT ALL YOU'VE GOT?!?!?! SOD RIGHT OFF!!!! NEXT....


However, PMs are currently of value, and as I predict, if the collapse is financial, then we'll see the purchasing power go through the roof. When it does, I'm cashing out to different assets, e.g. property (land), and other things. Post SHTF, I plan to be well enough established with preps and skills to not really need to barter, or to keep barter to a minimum...thanks to the preps from PMs.

---

I'll sell you a shotgun like that now for £20,000 worth of gold at todays international prices. Then you will be ready and won't have to barter. Why wait?

Will it be a gamble over whether the gold will be worth £20,000 pounds at todays prices and is what you have to pay for it NOW to be able to buy the shotgun PSHTF or is it that you think the gold will be worth a relative value many times multiplied PSHTF if the national currency has hyper inflated?

If paper currency hyper-inflates, then real world goods are worth more in relation to the paper currency. These real world goods will probably be of a value in relation still to the real world gold. So even if the gold is worth a million times more than it was of paper currency, then so will the real world goods. It seems of some exchange medium but limited use. (unless you are already trying to get a large amount of paper money in this country converted to the international medium and value of gold - which is a trend already underway)

Without the hyper-inflation specific scenario, then the gold will be worth whatever you are able to barter with it for, which may be just a bag of food. ((& possibly within a localised economic situation))

It is a lot of money/asset potential investment - at todays gold prices, to put into a gamble on a specific type of disaster/monetary collapse at a later SHTF or PSHTF date.

Maybe a secreted gold dollar/sovereign might be good for buying passage in an emergency, like the US airmen were issued in the Gulf war in case they were shot down.

[Me_Again]

All valid points guys but it's all about hedging your bets isn't it.
If you can afford it I think having some PM is a sensible 'hedge' against come what may.
Would I prefer to have it than the Remington if TSHTF? No of course not, but I can't buy one now without a risk of 5 years in the slammer.

In the hyper inflation scenario it is only PAPER currency which becomes hyper inflated, in fact there comes a time when sellers say 'no' to paper currency and will only accept PMs or jewellery or goods. Jewellery is not good because the skill to assess its value is going to be premium so it goes through at a much lower 'price' or not at all. That is why hallmarked, verified, pieces of pure gold and silver will still have a good exchange rate whilst there is still an exchange of goods for a currency. If we dial back all the way to 'goods for goods' it's no use at all, but that's what hedging is all about.

Gold is at its cheapest for 3 years http://goldprice.org/gold-price-uk.html, the market is rigged for staying down for the moment [probably so the rich gits can stock up] but just like a cork it is going to bounce back high. If you look at the graphs on that page you can see that even if nothing happens before you need to cash it in, you won't have bought a pup.

[bigpaul]

in any SHTF situation where the stock & other markets are shut, who is going to be able to fix how much the PM's will be worth? there may be some people who are willing to take a chance on accepting it but I'm guessing many wont, after all "you cant eat gold" is a well known phrase and quite rightly so, people will be more interested in filling their bellies than filling their purses!

[TOF]

I think the main point is being missed. It's not so much about how much PM's are worth now, or how much they will be worth post TU. Throughout history to way before Saxon times precious metals have an intrinsic value of some form or another. It doesn't matter whether they are worth £1,000 a 1,000 loaves of bread or 1,000 worms. The point is, gold and silver have always been held in high regard.
Don't for one minute think everyone will be in the same boat after armageddon. The rich and powerful will still be there and they WILL be happy to fill their purses.
It never ceases to amaze me how it's always the common man who survives. If the place were to go to custard on a permanent basis, the Wolves of this world will soon have a good old feudal system going, and that's when you need your PM's. Get in with the big boys and buy a Wolf.

[bigpaul]

I'd be very interested to know how much PM's were about in "The Dark Ages" during the post Roman era up to and including The Black Death, I bet no one was buying PM's during "the plague", they would have more important things to worry about, like staying alive