Ref Ukraine

[River Song]

NR < not so much lady muck but somewhere in between her and fat slag !!

Anywayze, Gas and Fuel supplies today. At present I've only got enough for around 1 week
with Camping Gaz and I've got nothing in terms of propane. Wood there's a lot of but a bit damp at the moment !! I really don't want to cook over an open fire but needs must of course.

heating - more coal and wood for the one fire we have in the lounge but need some form of heat elsewhere but I guess we are going to have to ear a lot of jumpers and lots of blankets

allons-y

[NorthernRaider]

River Song the Lilly Savage of prepping
BTW here is Reuters take on this issue
EG price of crude oil has gone up $2 already today and they also report about the Ruskies turning off the gas
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/0...NJ20140303

Sooooo in my estimation I need more firewood, more bottled gas and NOW I need to store more flour as well
RS my gas is only the blue butane / propane stuff I feed to a calor gas portable camping cooker.

[Tarrel]

Unlikely that Russia would cut off gas supplies to the EU. there would be limited benefit to them in doing so, and they need the income. If they had military ambitions beyond Ukraine, then cutting off the gas could be a military strategy to "soften up" the EU, but otherwise, why would they? I don't think Putin is stupid enough to just engage in a simple "tit for tat" sanctions war.

However, there are reports on BBC news this morning about gas prices to Ukraine for the next quarter being raised. The argument is that Ukraine has not been paying well, so the current low price can't be justified.

In a political climate where there is no love lost between the EU and Russia, and when the EU needs Russia's gas, putting the price up seems to be a more sensible move than cutting off the supply.

(By the way, apparently the Baltic pipeline has something like half the capacity of the Ukraine one)

We have had a mild winter and, as a result, our gas storage is in good shape compared to last year. Long range weather forecast is not suggesting a major late cold snap, so I think we're pretty safe from any immediate supply shocks in the UK. However, I would expect the uncertainty over supply to impact on future wholesale prices, so expect big energy price increases next Autumn.

If there's any prepping to bed one, I would suggest it is medium-term, in thinking about how to minimise one's dependence on the grid (both gas and electric) for next winter.

[NorthernRaider]

Good reply Tarrel thanks for sharing I was somewhat surprised to see your signature again on here, I thought you had gone with the rest of the better authors to pastures anew.

[Tarrel]

Thanks for the feedback. I still lurk from time to time. Forum seems to be going through a quiet patch.

On the prepping front, my main thrust is still to be progressively disconnecting from the financial system. It's handy that this has spin-off benefits in being less reliant on gas, elec., etc. Haven't cracked the food self-sufficiency bit yet, so we're still vulnerable to shocks. Working on that, but just hope we're able to get there quickly enough!

[NorthernRaider]

I wonder how the old highland Scots fed themselves in days of yore?, they must have been pretty self sufficient, I'm guessing sea food and hunting played a major roll?

All the forums appear to be quiet or even comatose , most of my time is now spent doing other stuff or using E mail groups to share info, no OTT or mad moderation to worry about, Nice to hear from you again though.

[Tarrel]

Depends how far you want to go back. We were in Shetland last October, and had a look at some old Bronze Age settlements on the coast. Amazing that they managed to survive given that there was little wood and poor soil. Seafood played a major role, stone was used for building and driftwood for heating. More recently, grazing of animals on poorer quality upland soils did, and still does, provide a source of food and income. A typical crofter's income comes from breeding sheep which are then sold further south for fattening on the richer grasslands there. Areas such as Easter Ross (where we are) and Caithness are lower-lying and have very rich agricultural soils - as good as some of the best in the UK. You can pretty much grow anything there.

Then there's the venison...

[Lightspeed]

(3 March 2014, 11:26)Tarrel Wrote: Unlikely that Russia would cut off gas supplies to the EU. there would be limited benefit to them in doing so, and they need the income. If they had military ambitions beyond Ukraine, then cutting off the gas could be a military strategy to "soften up" the EU, but otherwise, why would they? I don't think Putin is stupid enough to just engage in a simple "tit for tat" sanctions war.

However, there are reports on BBC news this morning about gas prices to Ukraine for the next quarter being raised. The argument is that Ukraine has not been paying well, so the current low price can't be justified.

In a political climate where there is no love lost between the EU and Russia, and when the EU needs Russia's gas, putting the price up seems to be a more sensible move than cutting off the supply.

(By the way, apparently the Baltic pipeline has something like half the capacity of the Ukraine one)

We have had a mild winter and, as a result, our gas storage is in good shape compared to last year. Long range weather forecast is not suggesting a major late cold snap, so I think we're pretty safe from any immediate supply shocks in the UK. However, I would expect the uncertainty over supply to impact on future wholesale prices, so expect big energy price increases next Autumn.

If there's any prepping to bed one, I would suggest it is medium-term, in thinking about how to minimise one's dependence on the grid (both gas and electric) for next winter.

Tarrel,

the problem is that the primary pipeline to W Europe runs through Ukraine.

Any attempt to manipulate Ukraine with reduced or severed flows of gas or oil will create collateral damage to everyone downstream of UKR.

The new pipe line opened across the Baltic will take up some slack, and of course Germany where that pipe arrives will of course endure shortages in order that sufficient volumes make it through to the United Kingdom.... Of course they will ( NOT!)

There 's even the scenario of the UKR government in a position of losing control completely might cut the pipeline in order to cause damage to the RF economy.

Several scenarios here... none of them rosy...

[Tarrel]

Yes, agree with the above. Collateral damage has occurred before when Russia had a spat with Ukraine over gas supplies. I still don't think there's an immediate major threat to UK supplies though. If this was happening in October I'd be a lot more worried.

Of course, we do rely on good supplies through the summer to top up our long term storage. So, there could be issues with supply next winter, as well as price.

[Lightspeed]

Agreed, if October it'd be a lot more worrying.

Central Europe enjoying warmest winter for 40 odd years, with very strong likelihood of continued mild temperatures until spring.

1st day of spring just a fortnight away by the way.