Ref Ukraine

[River Song]

Well the UK is not going to put boots on the ground
but it seems we\ve lost the bottle for trade sanctions.

Big Vlad must be laughing his head off

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26426969

[NorthernRaider]

Well we all know full well the western world always puts profit before people.

[Tarrel]

Quote:Well the UK is not going to put boots on the ground
but it seems we\ve lost the bottle for trade sanctions.

Will our politicians NEVER learn to carry documents in a briefcase??

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Quote:Again folks I refer you to the point in question, As preppers what can you do to minimise any effects the Baltic crisis may have on you. What the Ruskies, Ukranians, EU, Brits and Merkins do we have no control over.

Well, let's play out a couple of scenarios:

1. Russia DOES play hardball, and cuts off gas supply to the EU, causing a fall-off in input to the UK. This happens at a time when weather is settling and amount of power generated by wind is reducing. This could have an impact on our power generation, leading to intermittent or rota power cuts. Even if this doesn't happen now, it could happen as early as the Autumn, once the weather gets cold.

Prepping response:
- Consider installing / procuring alternative heating options (wood burner, calor heater with ample stocks of gas)
- Ditto cooking (flat-topped woodburner, camping stove, Trangia with meths)
- Build a simple battery backup system; 1-2 leisure batteries, battery charger and inverter. Will keep essentials running (e.g. fridge)
- (Goes without saying) Candles, matches, oil lamps. Cheap and easy to get (for now)

2. The stresses of the current uncertainties are the "straw that broke the camel's back", leading to Financial Crash 2.0. European banks with high exposure to Ukrainian debt feel the strain. Worries lead to capital withdrawal, which could escalate to full-on bank-runs. Contagion spills over to UK banks, leading to restrictions on asset-withdrawals, temporary bank-closures and other pre-emptive measures to prevent disorderly bank collapse. Worst case scenario; credit system collapses, leading to freezing-up of supply chains and empty supermarket shelves.

Prepping response:
- Keep cash on hand (as much as you can afford)
- Spread bank savings across several banks
- Bolster food stocks
- Keep car full of fuel (so don't have to spend precious cash on fuel when debit cards aren't working)

3. NATO backs up its rhetoric with a military response in support of Western Ukraine. (Probably best not go there!)

All in all, the well-prepped prepper should already be ready for many of the outcomes that this crisis could generate.

I think what this crisis has probably already done is to suppress the fledgling recoveries that are being seen in many parts of Europe. Just look at the stock markets today. So one could be well-advised to remember the "hidden" form of prepping, i.e. reducing debt, reducing consumption, reducing the income-level you have to rely on, becoming more self-sufficient so that economic shocks have less impact on one's ability to provide basic needs. All this gives more options should a geopolitical shock lead to an economic one, which leads to a job-loss, etc.

[River Song]

Tarrel< Rep+1
Couldn't see the thanks button
Mwah

[NorthernRaider]

Tarrel, The Russian Rouble is falling fast its at some periodic low apparently, so the issue is affecting the Russian economy.

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Right on key " Gas prices on the international market soar, petrol is set to follow" another excuse by the energy companies to screw us.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...tions.html.

So
Extra FIRE WOOD, BOTTLED GAS, FLOUR /GRAIN, PETROL/DIESEL plus top up other essentials, I say regardless of how this plays out, be it turning to war or frizzles out peacefully you just know the oil companies will use it as an excuse to shaft us. Naturally the government will do nothing.

[Tarrel]

You know, one of the most threatening and scary things Russia could do generally in the world, would be to declare "unilateral self-sufficiency":

"We're not going to sell you our oil - we'll keep it for ourselves thanks"
Ditto gas
Ditto grain
Ditto coal, etc, etc.

Then pull the drawbridge up and watch the world go to ratsh*t from their rocking-chair on the porch!

There is a peak-oil principle known as the "Export Land Model", which examines how global oil supplies will pan out during the downslope after the peak. It basically says that countries that currently export oil (and gas) will start to retain more of it for themselves, and the international free trade in such commodities will gum up. The result is that the decline of supply will be a bit of a "postcode lottery", depending on whether you live in a "have" or "have not" country. The potential for conflict also goes up as desperate countries go in and take what they need.

Apologies for going slightly off topic.

[NorthernRaider]

Dunno about that during the Cold War even with Russia and the Ukraines enormous tundra they still had to buy millions of tons of grain from the US and Aus and Canada, I think we could soon go it alone on the grain aspect anyway.
Gas of course is a different issue !!

[Lightspeed]

NR, you wrote:

I think we could soon go it alone on the grain aspect

How do you mean?

[NorthernRaider]

Well during the Cold war the west grew all its own grain and only took a small percentage from areas outside the US, Canada, UK, etc, it should not be to difficult to go it alone again and not import Russian grain.

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The UKs own grain crop could not feed Milton Keynes never mind the rest of the country we appear to be growing nothing but Rape seed up here.

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Crop years per acre in the US and Canada have increased quite a bit due to selective breeding of various wheat grains, though the current drought out their wont help.

[bigpaul]

well I don't know whats going to happen,but just got back from our monthly "big" shop and the pantry is heaving at the seams again.