Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[Lightspeed]

SCENARIO: The S has hit the fan. The grid has failed. Petrol /diesel fuel deliveries to commercial filling stations have ceased. Quickly food supply chains break down, water and sewerage pumping slow / stop. After a week city food sources have dried up and water is getting harder to find. Those with the wherewithal to get out will do so, but they will be a small minority.

Families who enjoy ( or in the past enjoyed) camping and caravanning type holidays will have mind-set, skills, equipment, and the self-reliance to allow them to move. They will probably favour evacuating to regions that they know to have favourable climate, perceived plentiful food and water supplies, and with which they are somewhat familiar. Simplistically, this equates to rose tinted memories of past summer holidays, so this is where they may well head out for. (source: self-reference. This describes my own family’s pre-prepping situation and mind-set)

There are at least 11 million tents, caravans and mobile homes in semi-regular use in the UK. Assuming that each unit will have an average body count of 3, that’s a potential of 33million refugees! Further assuming that only 10% of those that can actually do that reduces the refugee count to 3.3 million (although Pareto principle would give a value of double this, let’s hope he’s wrong this time….) ( Source: http://www.visitbritain.org/Images/Fores...-14790.pdf‎ + http://www.thencc.org.uk/our_industry/statistics.aspx)

Most popular caravanning and camping region in UK is the South West with over 33% of all touring caravan and camping holidays are to this region. ( source: extrapolated from ( Source: http://www.visitbritain.org/Images/Fores...14790.pdf‎)

This scenario could mean 1 million or more refugees descending on Devon and Cornwall, who’s combined current population is around 1.6 million ( 2011 Census). And how many more will come, returning to family and friends with homes in the region?

To put this in context during ww2 Devon’s absorbed approx. 186,000 new arrivals, of which 85,000 were the US Army. This number is dwarfed by the potential numbers of refugees calculated in this scenario. (source: https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bits...S_Vol1.pdf page 18)

Plausible or misguided?

[Steve]

Not many people will have enough fuel to get there and those that do will run into the vehicles abandoned by those that don't. I imagine a huge jam somewhere on the A303, with desperate refugees, on foot, flooding the area between Southampton and Swindon.

[Lightspeed]

The dreaded A303 will be easily blocked as you mention.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the camping and caravanning set will have the wherewithal to get out somewhat earlier than the masses, and have the skills to get around blocked roads... after all they deal with them every time they journey to the SW over a bank holiday.

These folk also tend to be quite well prepared. I know I was. I always stored enough fuel to be able to travel the best part of 1000 miles.

[bigpaul]

there are at least 2 choke points I know of in this scenario. the first is Tiverton Parkway where the A361(North Devon link road) joins the M5, another is near Exeter where the M5 ends and joins the A30(West) and the A38(Devon Expressway), given a few storms, some trees down and some flooding..Dawlish, Cowley Bridge to name but 2, flooding across the Somerset Levels between Glastonbury and Taunton, some parts of the A377(Exeter to Barnstaple road) have recently fallen into the river and are currently under repair. you can see it wouldn't take much post SHTF to make the West Country cut off from the rest of the country .that's even if these so called "refugees" had enough fuel to even get half way, and what about tail backs and traffic jams, to say nothing of scavengers and looters?

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in any case even if they make it here-which I somehow doubt- they will head for the coast, Torquay, Paignton, Brixham, Torcross, Dawlish, Teignmouth,through the South Hams and on to Plymouth and down into Cornwall, I doubt if many have the knowledge to go "wild" camping, they will head for the camp sites and caravan parks where they have stayed and "been entertained" before, most kids these days have to be "entertained" even on holiday, very few will have any idea of where they will obtain food and water, outside of a few fishermen and someone who may have some vague recollection of rock pools.

[bigpaul]

like I say I doubt very few in number will actually make it here, given the distances that these "refugee's" have to travel, every town or city they have to travel through or past will see a few drop by the wayside or be actually "dealt with" by the inhabitants, so that by the time any get to the South West they will be few in number. we don't get tourists where I live, its not a tourist area, oh sure we see some but that's usually cos their LOST!! they usually head for places like Morwelhamquay, RHS Rosemoor, Castle Drogo or places like Princetown, like I say they have to be "entertained"!!

[Scythe13]

My first paragraph on this is just a personal annoyance...Pareto's principle is the principle of disproportionate distribution. It is often referred to as the 80/20 rule, but that is not a genuine figure set in stone. It can be 90/10 or even 99/1. It's simply disproportionate distribution.

Secondly, I think people will be very reluctant to leave their homes. VERY reluctant. If they're forced out...the roads will block up. They won't get far on foot.

[Devonian]

I'm sure a lot of them will stop in Surrey; Hampshire; Wiltshire; Somerset; Glos; Dorset etc as well.......

They will be peeling off at every junction and side road along the M5/M4/A303 etc when they see the volume of traffic.

Devon and Cornwall certainly won't be isolated in this respect.

[bigpaul]

(21 March 2014, 11:53)Scythe13 Wrote: I think people will be very reluctant to leave their homes. VERY reluctant. If they're forced out...the roads will block up. They won't get far on foot.

this is the first thing that happened in America before some of their hurricaines, everyone evacuated in their cars and the freeway became one giant car park!!

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(21 March 2014, 11:56)Devonian Wrote: I'm sure a lot of them will stop in Surrey; Hampshire; Wiltshire; Somerset; Glos; Dorset etc as well.......

They will be peeling off at every junction and side road along the M5/M4/A303 etc when they see the volume of traffic.

see what I said about the choke points Devonian, by the time they get to the far south west they will be few in number.

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I doubt very much that a refugee from London or the Home Counties would make it this far.

[John]

The A303 has other choke points before then. Namely the single track bits between Countess Services and the new Honiton road. Block that and you can have fun.

I like BP doubt that many will make it and those that do will be headed for the holiday resorts where they think that they will get looked after.

I also think that many will leave it too late and be unlikely to get further than the end of their road.

[bigpaul]

absolutely John, I'm thinking also of the single track road from Monkton up the hill towards the turning to Yarcombe...they've been talking about dualling that stretch for years, but it never happened due to the lie of the land,a lot of the A303 and A30 is single track, that's why there is a lot of tailbacks in the summer with people towing caravans and boats.dont think anyone would get very far before all the traffic came to a shuddering halt.