Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

[Steve]

Well, whether there is another crash or not you can't go far wrong by buying something tangible and useful, preferably second-hand at a price as low as it's likely to get. You can always sell if you need to later.

I've been putting off topping up my red diesel stock, but I think I'm going to buy some now - it's too useful to risk losing out if there is a crash. In fact, it's such a bargain I won't cry even if the price does go down further.

[Straight Shooter]

Baltic Dry Index ....new.... all time low (337).

[Devonian]

With the number of new super sized container ships on order and currently being delivered and built, the Baltic Dry index is going to continue to reach new lower and lower lows over the next few years, there is massive over capacity and this is being expanded and expanded.


http://www.velta.co.uk/news/173/76/Globa...s-in-2015/

Global shipping fleet capacity soars in 2015

A record 214 new containerships were delivered in 2015, increasing global fleet capacity by 8.5 per cent to 19 million 20-foot equivalent units, according to Alphaliner.

The shipping industry placed orders for 255 more vessels in 2015, with an estimated total value of $20.2 billion, 98 percent higher than in 2014.

World fleet capacity grew by 1.72 million TEUs in 2015, while only 200,00 TEUs were deleted as a result of scrapping, conversions or casualties. The increase in capacity, coupled with a global slow down meant that idle fleet soared to 1.36 million TEUs by the end of 2015, having only stood at 230,000 TEUs at the beginning of the year.

A number of new vessel build orders placed in 2015 were the result of carriers bringing forwad planned orders to avoid revised, stricter emission standards for ships with keels, introduced on 1 January 2016. The race among carriers to operate the largest vessels also contributed to the increase in orders, with 60 ships of 18,000 to 20,000 TEUs accounting for 24 per cent of all orders.

With the delivery of many of these vessels still outstanding, the arrival of these ships will ‘add further to the overcapacity pressure” Alphaliner said.

[Straight Shooter]

With all due respect Dev....iron ore , coal , grains....raw materials are not carried in container type ships....finished products DO ...so it looks even worse ! thanks for pointing that out though.

[Straight Shooter]

Just to point out ....on the 14th January i posted the index was (403) TODAY its (337).......that's (66) points lost in 14 days ?.......time to wake the fuck UP !

[River Song]

Thats for keeping us uptodate SS

As you say so rightly, we weren't talking about containers although as
was pointed out by Dev, we have an over capacity problem there.

The dry index ralates to bulk carriers and I really don't buy the over capacity
bit of spin.

Was there over capacity in 2008 at the beginning of the last crash?

The reason then and the reason now is the same - China !

[Devonian]

SS, I know you are only trying to keep us all informed and forewarned etc, but no matter how much research I do on this I really cannot find anything that would suggest the collapse of the BDI would lead to a economic Collapse in the UK or EU, or even in China for that matter. It is all about the supply and demand of bulk carriers (not container ships - sorry!) and the following statement sums it up well for me:

".....The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and the cost of laying up a ship is too high to take out of trade for short intervals, the way you might park a car safely over the winter. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..." The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains......"


Also just like the container ships there has been an increasing number of bulk carriers added to the global, and this is coupled with reduced demand from China:

http://shippingwatch.com/carriers/Bulk/a...120996.ece

[Straight Shooter]

Thing is RS these updates are useless if no action is taken to protect ourselves....all i am doing here is simply relaying information available to EVERYONE ...no big deal really ...however a very BIG DEAL if ignored by US ....this is not done to scare the shit out of anyone....simply prepare for the inevitable conclusion of the circumstances.....the good news IS some are doing something about it .....it does not matter how small....SD only keeps enough in his bank to cover living expenses.....Steve buys stuff to use of a practical nature in tune with his life style....these things are good things to do as a safety nett and the preservation of future wealth all said and done that's why we are all here...to survive....what is surely coming our way....WHEN ? .....all i see....its here... and its now rolling out ....i wish i was wrong....play it as you see it....that's what i do...everyone to their own.

[Straight Shooter]

I have NO problem with your views DEV....as i have said earlier ......play it as you see it......i feel a landy and bitchy dual is in order lol .

[Devonian]

(29 January 2016, 00:48)Straight Shooter Wrote: i feel a landy and bitchy dual is in order lol .

now you are talking