Time for AU and AG

[Skean Dhude]

Barter is when both sides make a mutual exchange. You may be the one needing something and they would have the same concerns..

However, I'm with TOF, I won't be trading certain things.

[Paul]

Got to share this one!
As one of my friends just pointed out (with his permission).
"There's no better way to barter with someone than them being at the end of your gun barrel".
Funny how some CP personnel think isn't it?

[Timelord]

Not much of a barter that one.... Maybe it would be best if everyone bartered at the end of a gun or even just didn't bother at all. That would be secure don't you think?..

Problem is, you wouldn't gain much respect locally by bartering using your gun. Word would get round and people would avoid you like the plague. In any other sense, you would just be deemed a raider and expect to be treated like one.

Historically people have bartered for their needs. Those that purposefully live by the gun, invariably die by it. Bandits are often hunted down when they become a threat to groups of people trying to make a go of it. Bandits that shun co-operation with others are more likely to live a shorter lifespan on average and that is likely to reflect on their surviving family as well.

Of course, while during TSHTF, then self preservation with family or any mutual compatriats is a priority. In a PSHTF world, then the above would be relevant. (IMO)TL

[The Local Ned]

Yes...bartering could be a dodgy situation , then again , if you lay down ground rules assuring your bartering partner of their speedy demise if the barter isn't observed correctly then it should be fine.

Beyond that..lets just say it would be better to have worked out what you will require well beforehand than acting when the situation happens and you're caught out.

My outlook is - I'd rather have it and not need it , than need it and not have it.

The police ,and a threat of a jail-term is all that stops a lot of people from stepping over the line , take them away and the resulting mess is anarchy.
Human life is cheap as it stands today in a lot of places - once TSHTF then it will be a free-for-all in a lot of areas that aren't normally as bad.

People WILL be prepared to kill you for those medicines, those supplies etc.
Batering was usually done under the watchful eyes of the local head honcho / or his official , to ensure fairness....I dont think we will see anything like that for some time.

The only bartering we're likely to see is how much it will take for someone NOT to pull the trigger / cut your throat / smash you on the head.

I can't understand why a lot of you think that the country will go this way ?
The watchword for the future will be ' standoff ' , the closer you come into contact with others the more you lose the ability to standoff and absorb any damage that could occur ,and by that I mean maybe losing one or two of your people and some of your supplies in a barter that has went wrong.

I hate thinking like this - as its cheap,nasty,inhumane and downright deviant....but..if someone turned up unannounced near a location , with food or equipment to trade - I'm sure those involved WOULD give it serious thought to taking things by force if they didn't have what the others wanted , but the others had what they needed.
After assessing the situation I think they would act in the most productive manner they could.

Another reason for you all to steer clear of established groups until you recce them, and be sure they were generally peaceful.

---

(15 May 2012, 23:33)The Local Ned Wrote: Just read the above post.

Yes - the situations will be different if you are static in your desired locale or mobile passing through.

Obviously if you're mobile - then you wont be too upset if you are cautious around barters , you will be moving on anyway.
The opposite is the case when static - you won't want to piss off your neighbours in any way.

[Timelord]

I think it would depend on the general situation combined with the time lag after any big event. During any event, then bartering is going to be very risky and best avoided if at all possible. Really I see the way most people view the subject of bartering as something which takes place once the dust has settled.

During this PSHTF phase then individuals or groups are going to have to seriously consider their long term capabilities & objectives. It is more likely to be unwise (for anyone wise enough to think ahead) to be knocking off fellow survivors with the capacity to trade. Raiders/Bandits may do well initially, but as small bands or communities form, then their days of free reign will be numbered. Capital punishment will be a normal procedure.

History has a lot to teach us here and by studying it and in so doing, not having to reinvent the wheel from our armchairs, then it will become apparent how humankind manages these situations. We are lucky enough nowadays at this rare timeframe in history, to be able to study and learn from our ancestors with such the wealth of knowledge afforded to us by modern information systems. We can learn the from the historical mistakes and from the successful productive courses of action undertaken in similar circumstances. The American West has a lot of similarities and there is more recent literature on this than from earlier times. We can read how groups of people came together and which rules they lived by that allowed them to succeed, How they dealt with adversity, 3rd party threats or even weak leadership. They had rules/codes of conduct they all adhered to. In Saxon times of Alfred the Great, every common man was grouped into a party of 8. These 8 men were each responsible to police the action of the others. Any wrongdoer of the group who absconded, was pursued by the remaining seven and brought back to justice. This was their responsibility or the burden of the crime would fall on their collective shoulders. It was a quite an effective self policing policy. There are many instances that we can learn from in history that would save us from being overwhelmed and in uncertainty over what course of action would be the best at any given time. A wise man would be threefold wise if he could learn to read in history. TL

[Paul]

Quaint civil and criminal law, respect, codes of conduct, civil niceties, please and thank you, etc, are meaningless to someone who is watching their kids starving.
Especially if their neighbour (i.e. you) has excess and yet expects payment whilst your kids go hungry. Think they are just going to sit next door quietly and listen to their kids crying?
Think again.

Is it even possible to negotiate with an armed gang who have been running amoke shooting and looting anything or anyone they come across?
Now they appear at your gate looking for whatever they can get and you offer to barter!!!!
Yeah, right, double tap to your head if you're lucky and maybe they'll keep your wife and daughter for a while to keep their newly acquired house clean.

Why does anyone think people will obey any laws except the law of survival i.e. take what you can when you can as tomorrow there may not be anything to have?

Why obey any laws anyway when there is no rule of law or local authorities capable or even willing to uphold them!

Everyone thinks long term on forums when the rule of 3 applies to most every survival situation i.e. 3 days without water or 3 weeks with no food is normally enough to kill off the very weak, elderly or young?

Sure eventually things will settle down.
Feudal settle down if TEOTWAWKI has occured.
The strong will take and make laws, their laws i.e. tribute is due, pay up or die.
The sheeple will pay and work for them in servitude much like now, today.

Bartering? Sod being nice, pass the ammo!

[Timelord]

Historical lessons are not quaint or meaningless - The military school at Sandhurst certainly don't think so. Bartering in most of these posts gets mixed up & confused in SHTF scenarios. I would not barter with an armed gang running amok etc. I am sure no one else will either. It seems incomprehensible that you suppose I would.

Whilst I can see the law & order disappearing during a SHTF situation, It does not mean my response would be to barter. I do not understand why the gung ho, guns blazing, armageddon, self centered, kill or be killed reasoning is being put forward here. It is not the answer to all scenarios.

I repeat -->>> As far as I can make out, the majority of preppers see bartering as something which may take place after the dust has settled. ---- That is PSHTF & then some. Without barter, exchange & some mutually beneficial codes of conduct, then there will be no re-emergence of any form of society. Naturally humans in history have migrated towards some type of society. A warrior class can only exist with an economic base to support it. A feudal leader supports & is supported by his warrior class - which in turn can only exist with an economic base to underpin it. A leader with warriors and no economic base will either be very poor and not able to retain his followers or he will have to resort to brigandry or conquest. Both high risk strategies. We are not talking during SHTF. This is later, after the initial bad times.

There will always be differentiation geographically as to the severity of PSHTF situation - as ever there is individually also. Just like there are murders nowadays. What we are talking in is generalisms and things like bartering placed in its proper context. Even in Feudal times, Bartering is carried out from the Lord down to the peasant. Bartering can be with goods or strategic assets or anything else suitable.

Laws are irrevelent, but mutually beneficial co-operation or lack of it is not. Markets were places people took their produce to barter. in Bronze Age, Neolithic, Mesolithic & earlier times, people took their wares to predetermined special points in the landscape at certain times of the year. Bartering & merrymaking commenced. It was neutral ground with many different people present. It was an important event for the valuable exchange of resources & cross community links. It was a valued resource and would have been protected by obligated manpower while it was underway. It was a secure neutral location for the participants. This is not something that can be arranged overnight, but it is an example of a workable system that lasted for many thousands of years for isolated communities & traders.

Those unwilling in the longer term to benefit from this type of activity could find themselves left on the margins and those who look to prey on others after the dust has settled had better be prepared for the retribution.

A Feudal Lords/leaders power stems from his economic base. The martial power this enables is available to enforce security of that economic base. A key part of this system is barter & exchange.

[The Local Ned]

I respect your opinion TL - you are entitled to view things this way.

In all honesty - I dont think any of US will be around to see the rebirth of a barter based society , in fact - I dont think any of us will be around to see the rebirth of any meaningful form of society - our grandchildren might see it though...

I understand the points you make - re: 'Bandits' and I use the inverted commas intentionally.
The title 'bandits' suggests outlaws - people beyond the law , lawbreakers.
As their will be no form of law and order I fail to see the point you make , maybe 50 years after TSHTF then there could be some form of society emerging with leaders strong enough to lay down the law to the sheeple surviving under them , and as I have said - at that point it will be immaterial to most of us.
IMHO in the first 10/15 years post SHTF - there will be no effective form of society , so why should anyone play by the old rules ?

You have stuff I want - I have weapons and better experience using them than you , > I take your stuff...maybe leaving you alive in the process , maybe not.

Society , of course , will re-emerge , its in our natures to do so....but only after a substantial period of time has taken place to allow us to forgive,forget and move on.


"Those unwilling in the longer term to benefit from this type of activity could find themselves left on the margins and those who look to prey on others after the dust has settled had better be prepared for the retribution."
-
"I do not understand why the gung ho, guns blazing, armageddon, self centered, kill or be killed reasoning is being put forward here. It is not the answer to all scenarios.".
- But it will be the final answer to anyone that isnt armed similarly ,and as the saying goes - history is written by the winners.

I dont think that anyone with viable weapons will be marginalised in any way - more likely they will be incorporated into a larger group who will then " look to prey on others " whilst serving their own form of " retribution ".

The men with the greater firepower are ALWAYS right...no matter what...right or wrong , might is right.

Bartering will only occur long after the dust has settled - for the first decade at least , those with weapons will be strongest placed to survive , once things calm down , then we can all move forward and begin a peaceful path out of the darkness.

Stock up on gold and silver if you want - me ? I will be concentrating on ammunition.

[Timelord]

Mutual respect is given. :-) This is useful debate after all and I hope to learn or understand more by it..


I see the darkness you percieve is coming. Banditry is not directly related to outlaws and so therefore transposing it to discussion about the law and the fact it will be irrelevent is not applicable or what I said. Banditry is a description of a type of action that preys on other folk for material gain. This is not about the rule of law. I have said I expect there to be no recognisable rule of law.

I see what some preppers write about there being no rule of law and so therefore not playing by the rules and I see this allows them to think they have free reign to live and murder by the gun. What I am trying to point out (which does not apply to during the SHTF stage), is that humans do not exist together without codes of conduct. These codes do not have to be written or documented by any authority. There have always been natural systems that allow people to coexist and to have mutual gain through it. Wether this relationship is peaceful or forced upon others by stronger wills, it will still have codes of conduct to adhere to. Just expecting to be able to shoot anyone you feel like because thay have something you want is going to result in a bloody mess. Being overconfident in this respect is failing to grasp the real precariousness of the survival situation that may be faced. If you are in a gang of firearms holders that makes its way by preying on others, then you will still be working in a co-operative to codes of conduct. These are not laws! You do not need law & order to live by mutually agreed codes of conduct. 50 years seems a random figure for estimating the start of any strong leaders emerging. Generally leaders emerge pretty soon. I don't think the leaders bit was referring to on a national or regional basis. That could well be 50 years if thats what you meant. There will be leaders right from the word go in surviving or forming communities. Some will wain & some will rise. There have always been those that lead. It is necessary for groups to function.

As for those with weapons not being marginalised, well I think that if there are small groups of guys running round with weapons preying on other folk, then once or if communities form, these raiders will eventually be sought out if they have survived that long. Any raiders that are successful and form larger groups and take others material possessions or resources/land, will in their own turn settle down and form communities. They may be preyed on in turn by others and will act accordingly.

You know you say history is written by the winners and the final answer IS for these winners to be armed to the teeth similarily - this does not mean these winners have to be the trigger happy raiders who are prepared to blow someone away for their stuff. Often in history these raiders had spectacular but short careers. Only the few wrote their history as winners. Mostly it was Autobiographies. Are you going to form an army of distrusting compunctual raiders? With no leader? that would be an interesting cocktail. People band together for mutual support & protection. This contributes to being the winners. There will be guns on all sides, not just the guy who thinks he can do whatever he wants because there being no law & order allows him to do so.

Having bigger guns & firepower does not guarantee success in conflict. Co-operation & co-ordination are also important martial skills. Where the hell are these guys or gangs with superior firepower going to get all their ammo over the years? I have never understood this. In fact how many of these prep experts even have a military calibre semi auto weapon AND the huge stocks of ammo that would be needed?? Not many I bet... How much ammo can you carry on your travels & there will be no military supply train! A lot of these superior weapons could rapidly become obselete as the ammo runs out or repairs are needed. How many preppers with a mil calibre semi auto + heaps of ammo have the ability to repair modern weapons systems? Will these guys with the above mentioned guns have reloading equipment & the knowledge to use it. Do they have all the primers, powders, bullet molds etc etc to make the stuff up? Where do they get fresh empty shell cases from. How do they carry all this stuff? The list is long... So many factors when you really think about it...

I do agree with you about the bad times and the general depravity that may ensue. I am under no illusion and I prepare as such. I understand this general type of thinking about firepower & might is right etc and there is a place for all this in a major SHTF scenario. What I attempt to do is look at the situation in a bigger comprehensive way and to utilize lessons already learnt from our past (cause its hard to learn from the future - at the moment anyway). I just feel that many preppers have a very blinkered close focused view of how their part in it all may play out. I know a self focused view is necessary during & probably immediately after TSHTF, but now is the time to look with a broader view and realise all the many variables & situations that may evolve from it and in by doing be better prepared mentally for when or if some of these situations arise PSHTF. It is not all about surviving by the power of a gun barrel at others expense.

Someone said preppers tend to think long term on these forums, when really only the rule of three applies. That is fair enough but out of context. It is a shame that a discussion on PSHTF scenarios is dragged back to the SHTF stage with all its badness and dismissed as such. There is nothing wrong with discussing prep related long term PSHTF issues. Maybe some people can't see beyond the initial SHTF stage yet and can only see this bleak scenario extending on & on.... Maybe it will , but if it dosn't last forever, then they will not have prepped mentally for the myriad of possibilites that could arise.

Regards, Timelord.

[The Local Ned]

All good and valid points TL.
Very well put also.

I concur - timing and context are key to the levels of violence we will see , also - a good point regarding ammunition and its likelihood of being universally available.

Weapons and ammo availability ?
Weapons are very very easy to disable and very easy to jam if incorrectly looked after too.
These are valid points you bring up , there will be very few armourers around with the skill and knowledge to repair firearms.
Weapons will degrade through time unless well looked after , as will the ammunition if stored incorrectly , and the availability will decrease as time wears on too...but its those first few years that has me worried.

- Forgive me TL if these posts have come across as any form of personal disagreement with your views, they are not , I agree 100% with you on a lot of the points we discussed ,and as usual I am trying to play devils advocate here , I only seem to see posts suggesting a pacific though hard existence after the event , rather than the total carnage which I think will happen for a period of time - I am guesstimating that ammo sources will either be totally depleted very quickly unless the users are switched on to the fact that their wont be much going around for long , in which case it will only be used as a final solution.

I believe that your long-term views on PSHTF are entirely correct - in that context
Regarding timeframes , yes you are correct in assuming I meant regional or national leaders emerging and local government being re-established in some form or another...although certain areas will no doubt have their own warrior based leaderships springing up too within the first few years.
As you have said - these will be forged with codes of conduct / rules of engagement , and anyone outside of them will then be seen as outlaws.

I will end by saying that I will avoid large concentrations of sheeple for as long as I can , especially if I see weapons , for the opinions I have stated , I do not want to become someones figure 11.
If I see and recognise organised groups / preppers then I may make myself known to them as the circumstances dictate.

Having said that....
My aim is to find and try and integrate with the still functioning parts of the armed forces , they will need civilians ( with mil experience ) around to carry out tasks to enable frontline troops to be tasked elsewhere.
We each have our individual views and individual areas of expertise , mines unfortunately is an armed one , I am not a great adaptor , I am not a great planner , but I think I am good at surviving.

I apologise for hijacking the thread , but to summarise - I believe:
Weapons will play a major part in deciding many of our fates come the time..more so than AU and AG ,which I think was the point I was struggling to make , we cant eat gold and silver , and neither of them will stop bullets killing us... that is why I dont think they will play a major role PSHTF for a long time , their value will equal their usefulness , and not their assumed worth at some PSHTF date.

Sorry scythe but when we mention gold and silver the vison I get in my head is of an emaciated person sitting on a chair surrounded by coins of silver and gold.
I think buying long-life or greater quantities of supplies would be a wiser use of your cash right now mate.