A Hard Winter

[Tarrel]

First time I've written one of these, so here goes...

October; A blocked lubrication channel causes a bearing to overheat in the tail rotor assembly of a transport helicopter as it is approaching one of the North Sea's largest natural gas production platforms with a delivery. The tail rotor seizes, causing the helicopter to lose control and execute a crash-landing on the platform. As it does so, vital gas lines are severed, causing a catastrophic leak and immediate explosion. 20 people are killed instantly. The injured and remaining staff are evacuated. Damage is so severe that the platform is taken out of action for the forseeable future. The UK immediately loses 10% of its gas production capacity.

November; Continued tensions between the Russian and Ukraine governments lead to Russian state-owned Gazprom using the trans-Ukraine gas pipeline as a political weapon, intermittently restricting the Ukraine's gas supply. The uncertainty leads to an immediate 20% increase in the wholesale price of natural gas. Norway, having been suffering from the recent demand-destruction-led falls in oil prices, sees an opportunity. It switches supplies of gas away from the Norway-UK pipeline to the increasingly desperate Ukraine, reneging on its commercial contract with the UK and resulting in a 20% reduction in supplies to British shores.

December; An early cold snap causes a surprise jump in natural gas demand at home, mostly among domestic consumers. The recent fall-off in supply availability means that the UK's gas reserves are drawn upon unusually early. However, people enjoy a great Christmas, putting all the World's troubles behind them, and fire up those stoves for cooking the traditional Christmas turkey.

January; As has become common in recent years, the position of the jet-stream creates a prolonged high pressure blocking weather pattern over the UK, leading to biting North-Easterly winds and heavy snow. Temperatures plunge, reaching overnight lows of -15 commonly in southern England, and as low as -25 in the Scottish Highlands. Gas demand soars, leading to unpredictable pressure-drops. Reserves reach critically low levels. Gas distribution companies begin interrupting supplies due to the unsafe low pressures. People start to suffer. The sick and elderly start to die. The Government is under pressure to act.

An emergency debate in parliament grants the Government power to enact rolling gas-supply cuts to both residential and industrial customers. There is a knock-on effect on electricity supplies and rolling black-outs are also introduced. Companies start to introduce informal three-day weeks and begin laying off zero-hour-contract workers and agency staff.

February; The icy temperatures continue. Hundreds of thousands of workers are laid off, unable to pay their bills. Energy costs rocket. The bad weather isn't helping. Protesters take to the streets, blaming the Government for its short-sightedness in energy security. Many of these demonstrations turn nasty. An incident of heavy-handed policing during one of the demos is the spark that creates a new round of rioting. The word soon spreads through social media and, before long, civil unrest is spreading through many of Britain's towns and cities. Continuing demonstrations, and striking worker picket lines become ready flash-points for riots to develop. Unlike the summer of 2011, the bad weather is hampering the police's attempts to maintain order. The disorder escalates to the point where whole town-centres become no-go areas night after night. The disorder on the streets, and the continued severe weather, start to affect transport and deliveries.

Early March; Supermarkets start to run short of basic foodstuffs....

Questions:

How would you react?
When would you react?
Would you be prepared for:
- Keeping warm?
- Keeping safe?
- Keeping fed?

[NorthernRaider]

Very nicely done
I believe in being PROACTIVE not REACTIVE for this type of highly likely threat ( Energy shortages and power outages) ergo I have stores of timber and bottled gas enough for best part of a year, along with bottled gas powered cookers, heaters and lights, I have tilley lanterns and some parafin, Candle Lanterns and lots of candles, Light Sticks etc. Converted the houses gas fire over to a multi fuel AGA stove. Double glazed house, Cavity wall and loft insulation and everyone also has full winter clothing and - 18 rated sleeping bags.

If something happened I would increase food stocks BEFORE the panic hit home among the sheeple, I would get more fuel for vehicles though I'm set with a modest amount of treated fuel already.
October would see me moving into reactive mode i think with checking both food and fuel stocks. Then NOV / DEC would see me sourcing extra timber and bottled gas plus moving one vehicle to secure parking area.

Before Crimbo I would be fully in prep mode constantly looking for extra wood, coal, bottles of propane, extra foods

Nice first appraisal .
NR

[Metroyeti]

Nice scenario.

I need to get an alternative heating/cooking source asap.
Stock up on food and beef up my security

[Nenook]

this I believe could happen , so I installed log burners in my house and insulated it , I have enough wood to last a winter and a bit, bottled gas , and stove , candles, a plan to move my bed downstairs, so as to only need to live in one room , canned food , pasta, flour to make bread , (I can make banack in front of the log burner) dried fruits , salt ,sugar, coffee, soups , dried milk I've also stocked some general antibiotics (in case of flu epidemic)that I buy when I go on holiday, anywhere in Europe you can buy over the counter , my trusty bow and arrows , and some surprises should anyone try to take it away from me !

regards

nenook

[Hexyprep]

I also see this sort fo thing as a real possibility and while I am not able to stock up as much as I want right now, I have been doing what I can. But looking at it for a longer term.... seeds are high on the list and water purification tabs, nets/small traps/ thermal everything... HATE being cold!
I have to be honest I don't think I would start to really react until January when the first gas interuptions start. That to me would be the point where I would know for certain that the S had HTF... up till then its all speculation and debate. The I would plow my money asap into the things I have been getting slowly.
However that doesn't mean I do not have some prep already for this sort of thing.
Our house is well insulated. We have a lot of extra blankets, socks and thermals already

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(23 October 2012, 11:22)Hexyprep Wrote: I also see this sort fo thing as a real possibility and while I am not able to stock up as much as I want right now, I have been doing what I can. But looking at it for a longer term.... seeds are high on the list and water purification tabs, nets/small traps/ thermal everything... HATE being cold!
I have to be honest I don't think I would start to really react until January when the first gas interuptions start. That to me would be the point where I would know for certain that the S had HTF... up till then its all speculation and debate. The I would plow my money asap into the things I have been getting slowly.
However that doesn't mean I do not have some prep already for this sort of thing.
Our house is well insulated. We have a lot of extra blankets, socks and thermals already

opps only half my post came up don't have time now to rewite

[Scythe13]

(22 October 2012, 21:41)Nenook Wrote: I've also stocked some general antibiotics (in case of flu epidemic)that I buy when I go on holiday, anywhere in Europe you can buy over the counter

Thank you!!!




As for the scenario, this is pretty much what I'm expecting this year. The forecast, although premature, does look like a beast of a winter! Living where we currently are, we really would be alone!!!

So, in regards to this scenario, I've already taken action.

In October (currently) I'm upping my toilet paper, and tins. I already have 2 camping gas cookers and have bought extra gas for both. Remember that certain mixes freeze quickly and are hard to use in low temps, while others do freeze and are 100% useless unless you warm them with your body.

I've bought my lady some HeatHolder socks. I use them snowboarding, they're brilliant!!! And we both have full snowsport clothing, so that'll maintain good heat for outdoor trips. Personally I have 6 or 7 full sets of thermals. As for blankets and the alike, we have loads!

Our neighbour sells big bottles of cooking gas. Our other neighbour has a big log store. Sounds like being a thief would be useful, however, having a good community feeling is more effective.


How would I react?
Tell my boss the weather was nuts, roads frozen (or something like that) and I'd try to sort out some time off work, as of and when our lifestyle was affected. I wouldn't bother reacting until I'd noticed a change in our lives.

When would I react?
When effected. Why react sooner? This scenario may not effect certain people, and until it does, I don't get why it would be good to act. For riots, act early, for floods react early. For cold, react as of and when.

How would I....
Keep warm.
Thermals, heaters, hot water bottles, electric heating, extra blankets, exercise, sex, outdoor fires, and much more.
Keep safe.
We are in a village miles from most places. I believe people will be too busy staying in their homes than to cross over miles of cold to come after our stuff. If someone decides to come this way, they'll have a hell of a time with an air rifle and a load of knives.
Keep fed.
As for food...got a good few months worth of food, and enough for a couple of neighbours. However, with the village community, most have the same attitude of parlours, pantries, and having a good few weeks worth of food stored up for a bad winter.

[Tarrel]

Scythe, sounds like your local community is a bit like mine. Rural, smaller communities do seem to have a greater in-built level of resilience compared to interconnected and inter-dependent folks in the cities.

For what it's worth, camping gas stoves can be made much more effective in cold weather by inverting the cylinder. It's therefore a good idea to go for a stove that attaches to the canister by a flexible hose, rather than screwing directly onto the cylinder. Then you can invert the cylinder and mount it in a holder of some kind (home made or bought for the purpose). Also, the very popular "briefcase style" stoves that run on the long thin cylinders are butane only, rather than a butane/propane mix. This perform worse in cold weather, to the point of being useless (unless being used indoors of course).

[Scythe13]

Cheers Tarrel,

I always get the type of fuels mixed up. Some places are using isopropane, which is meant to be really good at very low temps. That's the one I've loaded up on.

[TheGuru]

I see now that my extremely poor up-bringing in a rural part of Scotland with shit loads of snow and just an open fire to provide all the heating and cooking needs, with long spells of no power due to the snow bringing the lines down has set me up ok. When I look back on them times with my brothers and sisters it was probably some of the best times in my life, as a kid we had fantastic fun all living in one room and driving our parents crazy. Although my mum stocked up a lot of the time the food came from the odd sheep or cow that went missing to feed several families, or my sister and myself would join the que at the local bakers to get rolls freshly made. Its strange to read on here about storing weapons and stuff and getting ready for mortal combat when it comes to your door, (me included) but the reality back then was that the locals stuck together and helped each other out and I can ensure you they were real tough times.

[bigpaul]

Thats more the pity, TheGuru, in general the mass populace will NOT be sticking together(unless they are rioting together that is) but will be putting their hand out for everything they can get, they Wont prepare, they wont store food, they'll just expect the govt to provide and will protest when it dosent, well have the" its my right" and "i've got to have it, i've got kids" brigade...but they dont have the braincells to look after themselves!!