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the depression begins?
6 December 2012, 23:31,
#31
RE: the depression begins?
(6 December 2012, 22:51)Cloud Wrote: Well from what im reading about stuff in the US atm, the dollar is pretty much dead, and its just a matter of time till it hits home over there, and has a chain effect bringing down the rest of europe russia etc.

The price of stuff is going to keep going up quite simply.

I agree. There are a couple of billion people in India and China, all aspiring to be middle class and have the same stuff we have. There's only so much stuff to go round (well, resources to produce it, anyway), so prices will rise. Basic supply and demand.

So, where at all possible, we need to become less dependent on stuff (especially basic necessities):
- Move closer to work (or work closer to home) - cycling or walking distance
- Insulate (It's cheap, and maybe even free)
- If you have the capital, invest in solar electricity and/or solar water heating (latter is cheaper and effective)
- Try to grow some food, even if it's only a small patch of ground, or a windowbox.
- Invest in low energy lighting
- Switch to Economy 7 and invest in time switches to run energy-hungry appliances at night (e.g. washing m/c, immersion heater)
- Install a small woodburner and scavenge for wood

This is a different kind of prepping; preparing to be resilient against a long-term, chronic stagflation which we all know is coming (or already here?)

I'd even consider taking savings out of the bank and investing in some of the above, as each action results in a small reduction in day-to-day outgoings, and will continue to provide returns on an ongoing basis. Also, the more prices for fuel, energy, food, etc. go up, the more you save. You become more insulated against the effects of inflation. £2000 that would have been sitting in the bank losing value, could be invested in solar thermal panels that will save on ever more expensive gas, for ever.

Just out of interest, if you are a tax-payer and are able to save, say, £100 a year on your electricity bill, it's actually like saving £130, because you would have had to earn an extra £130 before tax and national insurance in order to have the £100 in your pocket to pay the extra electricity cost. Reducing usage where possible always pays.
Find a resilient place and way to live, then sit back and watch a momentous period in history unfold.
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7 December 2012, 00:52,
#32
RE: the depression begins?
On the woodburner front. It is tempting to put a backboiler on your stove to generate hot water. But unless you have a switch valve as soon as the power goes off and the pump shuts down you have a shedload of boiling water with nowhere to go. We have 2 stoves and a rayburn. We do have backboilers but know how to pull them out if we have to so that we can still use the stoves even if we have no power for the pumps.
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7 December 2012, 09:43,
#33
RE: the depression begins?
What about thermosyphon central heating systems?

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7 December 2012, 11:04, (This post was last modified: 7 December 2012, 11:08 by Scythe13.)
#34
RE: the depression begins?
(6 December 2012, 22:51)Cloud Wrote: Well from what im reading about stuff in the US atm, the dollar is pretty much dead, and its just a matter of time till it hits home over there, and has a chain effect bringing down the rest of europe russia etc.

The price of stuff is going to keep going up quite simply.

The dollar died back in 1971. It's just that nobody noticed.

The dollar came off the gold standard, same as the GBP did much earlier on, I think back in the 1920's or 1930's. Which allowed for the money to be unbacked, and thus able to print more money, without the need for gold to facilitate the increased national wealth. The money supply could increase independently of a nation's wealth. If you have a ratio of £1 to 1oz gold, then you have a pound values to one ounce of gold (this is hypothetical, so let's not be knobs about how expensive gold is). If you then start printing money, so that you now have £1.00 and £1.00, but still have only 1oz of Gold. Has the gold increased in value, or has the pound halved in value? (once again this is only an example, there are much more complex economic models involved, but this is a basic lesson)

The truth is, the gold is still the same. The variable in the equation is the pound coins. Their buying power has halved. However, their buying power has only halved, if everything else doubles in price. If everything stays the same value, e.g. A bar of Chocolate starts at £1.00, when the other pound is created, the chocolate still costs £1.00, then the gold has doubled in value, relative to the other items....providing that the gold is valued at £2.00. So, as you can see, increasing the money supply has a lot of issues. Leaving the gold-standard can play a HUGE problem with currencies.

What America later did, after coming out of the gold backed monetary system, was create the OPEC agreement. This meant that if oil was to ever be traded, that it needed to be traded in dollars......regardless of where on earth the transaction was taking place. Which basically means that America was once again, backed by gold. It just so happened to be black gold. Dollars had value because they were used for oil. No dollars, no oil transaction. Clever hu? NO!!!

This backing system is, at best......retarded!

If there is an unknown amount of oil in circulation, in storage, is useable, tapeable, accessible, and unknown quantities on earth, then how can you use that as backing for a currency? I don't know, but America didn't care. They didn't have gold, but they had oil, and their currency was never going to crash, as long as the world used oil.....which it does.


The fun begins when people stop trading oil, or they stop trading oil with dollars. That's when America will crash!!! That crash then means that a world superpower, could well end up going the way of the Mayans. Or it might go the way of Spain, who were once a dominant world power, now a damaged flailing has-been-country. An also-ran, in the global model. Or it may come back and become a superpower again, like how Germany WOULD be if they weren't stifled by the EU and EuroZone bollocks!
Oh, forgot to mention the babyboomer generation that will be retiring between 2012 and 2016, who will be cashing in their pensions, selling the shares into the market, making an influx of shares....supply/demand.......which will crash the prices of the shares, reducing the value of everyone else's shares, that isn't retiring, and could then lead to another stockmarket crash, bigger than that seen over 2007-2008.

What will happen then? Well, history says that people transition from shared to precious metals. Which, to me, sounds like a great time to sell what I have.
Dissent is the highest form of Patriotism - Thomas Jefferson
Those who sacrifice freedom for security deserve neither - Benjamin Franklin
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7 December 2012, 16:07,
#35
RE: the depression begins?
And the fact that China is moving back to gold, and russia china and half of asia have recently turned around and said screw the dollar, i can see things escalating, only a matter of time before all those dollars make their way home.

Tbh im really hoping to have a few more years before the whole financial system collapses, just purely for time to prep more, cos im woefully unprepped for anything long term atm, but that may just be wishful thinking unfortunatly.
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7 December 2012, 16:56,
#36
RE: the depression begins?
(7 December 2012, 16:07)Cloud Wrote: Tbh im really hoping to have a few more years before the whole financial system collapses, just purely for time to prep more, cos im woefully unprepped for anything long term atm, but that may just be wishful thinking unfortunatly.
what you havent had time to prep, you can "scrounge" AFTER TSHTF!!Big Grin
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7 December 2012, 19:46, (This post was last modified: 7 December 2012, 19:49 by Prepper1.)
#37
RE: the depression begins?
They can prop up fiat currency "for ever"...

They print it, people get paid it, people pay it into banks, banks destroy the "extra" surplus currency thereby hiding the true problem by reducing the amount in circulation.

China has billions of "funny money" in storage from the u.s. and other countries.

If you put millions/billions into circulation it destabilizes its economy because its not supposed to be there in the first place.

China and or Russia hasn't decided to do that yet, nor call in the u.s. debt it owns.

They will choose the right moment then do it.

Technically destabilizing the economy beyond repair.

But just as easily that can be bypassed by saying "bog off we're not paying our debts and by the way we dont use dollars any more and using another currency such as the peso or another new made up currency freshly printed.

Thereby rendering all there debt useless..

Yes technically they would still be liable for the debt but whos going to make them pay?


Currency only collapses when somebody wants it to for some nefarious reason.

The euro is collapsing because they want a stronger union and members.

They think destroying countries and people and economies that use it is the way to achieve it.

BIG MISTAKE.
I tried to be normal once.... Worst two minutes of my life...
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7 December 2012, 20:09,
#38
RE: the depression begins?
Not sure how true it is but I read the 2nd gulf war was really because saddam done a deal to trade Iraqi oil in a different currency to $. Can't remember the details as it was months, if not years ago now that I read it.

Like I say, I don't know if its true or not, but we all know WMD's was just a smokescreen & they were as real as unicorns, the tooth fairy & Santa Claus.
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8 December 2012, 00:37,
#39
RE: the depression begins?
(7 December 2012, 20:09)Geordie_Rob Wrote: Not sure how true it is but I read the 2nd gulf war was really because saddam done a deal to trade Iraqi oil in a different currency to $. Can't remember the details as it was months, if not years ago now that I read it.

Like I say, I don't know if its true or not, but we all know WMD's was just a smokescreen & they were as real as unicorns, the tooth fairy & Santa Claus.

just like gadaffi.
he never planned to fail, he just failed to plan. like lambs to the slaughter the wolfs look down from the hill tops. we are those wolfs!!!
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8 December 2012, 01:26,
#40
RE: the depression begins?
Is there any point discussing the gold standard? I admit to little knowledge or experience so am quite happy to be corrected. However, if we are living in a post apocalyptic society (regardless of type or degree of apolcalypse) where does paper money, supported or otherwise by vaults of gold, come into survival?
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