Chances

[Skvez]

But Argentina didn't run out of food in the cities.
When there is no food people wait a while then they move somewhere (often anywhere) else.

[NorthernRaider]

(1 November 2011, 18:14)Skvez Wrote: BigPaul,
Initially most people will sit tight but once rioting and looting break out very badly and once the food and water runs out many people will try and go somewhere else.

By then for most it will be to late cos at best they will have to walk, that makjes them extra vulnerable to predation and crap weather, The avertage city dude could not walk five miles vin a day with luggage.

[cryingfreeman]

The problem is, people think the countryside is a larder, dripping with livestock to kill and vegetables to plunder. The truth is, the average farmer is not even self-sufficient or anywhere near it. They generally go into town to buy groceries like the rest of us. So when the masses in the cities run out of food to plunder from warehouses, etc, they might find very quickly that the countryside is not what they thought. And then they might think of an alternative food source... In the city again.

[bigpaul]

(1 November 2011, 21:44)cryingfreeman Wrote: The problem is, people think the countryside is a larder, dripping with livestock to kill and vegetables to plunder. And then they might think of an alternative food source... In the city again.

City people do not know anything about the countryside, if you ask them where there food comes from you get the answer:"duh, the supermarket??" there was a survey done not long ago where people were asked what they knew about farm animals, most thought you got eggs from cows and pork from chickens-i kid you not! your average city person does NOT go to the countryside, they think its full of mud &, sh1t, they might get there new clothes dirty!

[Skvez]

Yes half the people are stupid and will die.
I'm not talking about those people.
I'm talking about the 5% that will come into the country
And 5% of the town and city population is a lot of people.

[bigpaul]

(2 November 2011, 11:16)Skvez Wrote: Yes half the people are stupid and will die.
I'm not talking about those people.
I'm talking about the 5% that will come into the country
And 5% of the town and city population is a lot of people.

can you please tell me where this 5% comes from? how did you arrive at the calculation/conclusion??

[Skvez]

5% is an estimate.
Based on the assumption that 10% of people have some form of outdoors experience (whether sporty or ex-military) and 50% of them make it out of the populated areas alive.

[bigpaul]

i think 5% of the POPULATION is an overestimate, it will be 5%(or less) of the SURVIVORS, if it is a result of a pandemic, say like the black death/plague then survival rates(as i have already discussed on my own site) may be as low as 40% then any one leaving the cities would be a % of that 40%, which you must admit lowers the numbers a lot. i still wonder if anyone did leave how far they would get, literally carrying everything they own including the proverbial "kitchen sink", just water alone they need to carry a minimum of 2 litres per day PER PERSON and as we know water weighs heavy, if they are walking for, say, 5 days and there are 4 persons in the party thats a lot of water to carry, water weighs 1LB to 1 pint so i'm sure you can do the sums.(thats just DRINKING water, not for cooking or washing-thats on top of).

[JD1]

I think that it is pretty much a given that being in a rural area will be a bonus if the shtf over being in the middle of a city, but I also think that anyone who does live in a rural area and doesn't expect people to migrate from cities will be in for a shock.

Being prepared isn't just about food and water, its about being prepared for all eventualities, and raiders/refugees pouring out of cities is one eventuality that people in rural areas should prepare for

[bigpaul]

(2 November 2011, 18:00)JD1 Wrote: I think that it is pretty much a given that being in a rural area will be a bonus if the shtf over being in the middle of a city, but I also think that anyone who does live in a rural area and doesn't expect people to migrate from cities will be in for a shock.

Being prepared isn't just about food and water, its about being prepared for all eventualities, and raiders/refugees pouring out of cities is one eventuality that people in rural areas should prepare for

i never said, i didnt expect people to migrate from the cities i just dispute the numbers quoted, anyway as preppers by the time the sheeple think about coming here, we will be long gone(to our BOL's).