Gulf Stream/colder winters????

[Highlander]

The Gulf Stream is one of the strongest ocean currents in the world. It is driven by surface wind patterns and differences in water density, it starts way down in the Gulf of Mexico, as it travels north the surface water in the north Atlantic is cooled by winds from the Arctic. It becomes more salty and more dense and sinks to the ocean floor. The cold water then moves towards the equator where it will warm slowly,.. the Gulf Stream moves warm water from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Atlantic, and then heads for the west coast of Scotland, this is one reason we see a lot of palm trees in Scotland,..and our [UK] winters are quiet mild, western Europe also benefits a great deal

Recently, there has been evidence that the Gulf Stream is weakening and slowing and there is growing concern about what impacts such a change would have on the world’s climate. Some reports suggest that without the Gulf Stream, temperatures in England and northwestern Europe could drop by 4-6°C.

I think that most people will now be realising that our weather patterns are changing, the ice caps are melting at an hell of a rate,..so what happens if we lose the Gulf Stream?

The likes of Boston can have winter low temps of -17c, and they are a lot further south than we are,... if we take a straight line then the UK is on the same latitude as Alberta Canada,.. and they can get wind chill temps as low as -50

So is this something to be preparing for?, I have to admit that here on the west coast, we dont yet have bad winters, the Gulf Stream is still working for us, but over the last few years we have noticed that it is colder and we get more snow than we used to,.. even if its not as much as most would think

Inland Scotland is getting more snow than they did years ago, and inland temps are a lot lower,.. England/Wales have had their fair share of bad snow these last few winters too.

If we take the lowering temps no matter how little at the moment and add that factor to the fact that we are all getting older, then it could be something to be looking out for in the future, would you be thinking,.. `hell I am only 30yrs old I have other things to worry about`,... or would you think ahead, and try and do something to make colder winters more bearable for our ever increasing elderly bodies

I think that there is a TV program on this subject tonight [ 2nd July ] on BBC2 Horizon

[Grumpy Grandpa]

I honestly don't know HL, if we should be taking it into account in prepping or not. I guess it's another topic for late night reading!

I seem to remember reading (or seeing) something about a decrease in the salinity of the North Atlantic, caused by all the additional fresh water entering it from those melting ice caps and from defrosting tundra in Canada and Russia (on top of the methane release!). I'm not sure about the mechanics of the thing but something like the seawater needing the salinity as well as the colder temperatures, to sink sufficiently to keep the conveyor running...?

I'd be very interested in a programme about it but after searching around a bit, I can't find any mention of it. Do you have any more info on that?

People do prep for all sorts of reasons though, don't they? Some of those have even more remote possibilities so why not this?

[Sunna]

yes the winters are getting much colder and lasting longer , i know this bye the amount of wood i need to store.
in the summer i could take it eazy a bit [getting wood] but over the last several years im getting more and more and because of the economic problems lots more people have wood burners and are looking for wood too
if things get much worse i could see people fighting over wood in skips ect

[Tarrel]

Weakening of the Gulf Stream due to reduced salinity of the sea has been a doomsday scenario among climate scientists for quite some time. However, it seems to have been overtaken by the issue of melting arctic sea ice. This impacts the jetstream, which has a mach more immediate impact on our weather, in creating the high pressure blocking patterns that contributed to our late winter and cold spring.

The melting sea ice isn't the only factor affecting the JS. There is also a multi-decade cycle that affects it, but the melting ice is certainly a contributing factor. See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release...al-seasons

If the Gulf Stream goes, perhaps through increased glacier calving activity leading to dumping of fresh water into the sea, it will certainly impact on the UK's climate. As a comparison, I once heard we might end up like Labrador, which is a maritime location on the Canadian eastern seaboard, on a similar latitude to ours.

[NorthernRaider]

Theres the melting sea ice scenario, then the melting glaziers to add to it, but one of the biggest concerns is the thawing of the siberian tundra which could see trillions of litres of free water pour into the upper oceans and this like the other scenarios could technically alter the salinity of the gulf current. it could change route, sink further or be disrupted. The only thing most ologists appear to agree with is the UK will get the same climate as parts of Nova Scotia and Alaska.

[I-K-E]

The melting of the Siberian ice would also release a hell of a lot of methane too adding to the green house gas issue

[NorthernRaider]

(2 July 2013, 15:38)I-K-E Wrote: The melting of the Siberian ice would also release a hell of a lot of methane too adding to the green house gas issue

Yup and guess what else would get released if sea temps continue to rise. Those massive great frozen methane deposits that sit on the ocean floor, enough to return the plane to precambrian times I guess.

What a wonderful but vulnerable and fragile world we inhabit, I just know we will fuck it up.

---

Methyl Hydrate !!! Could I buggery remember its name until of course AFTEr I pressed POST.

[Highlander]

(2 July 2013, 12:20)Grumpy Grandpa Wrote: I honestly don't know HL, if we should be taking it into account in prepping or not. I guess it's another topic for late night reading!

I seem to remember reading (or seeing) something about a decrease in the salinity of the North Atlantic, caused by all the additional fresh water entering it from those melting ice caps and from defrosting tundra in Canada and Russia (on top of the methane release!). I'm not sure about the mechanics of the thing but something like the seawater needing the salinity as well as the colder temperatures, to sink sufficiently to keep the conveyor running...?

I'd be very interested in a programme about it but after searching around a bit, I can't find any mention of it. Do you have any more info on that?

People do prep for all sorts of reasons though, don't they? Some of those have even more remote possibilities so why not this?

I guess that it depends on what you believe might be the time line between now and when things start to become bad.

Its ok now of course, but I am sure many people have noticed a great deal of change in our weather within just a few years,..and much of that weather will be connected to the Gulf Stream

So if we are seeing a great deal of change now, then what will it be like in 10 years time,.. no-one knows of course,.. but it might be a preppers concern, and I think that there are some that are worth trying to deal with now

I dont want to go into old age because of forever rising heating bills, and lowering temps, and dieing because of the cold

...and I am sorry, I said that there was a program on tonight, but I also cant find it again,... there has been BBC programs on the subject before, so I suspect I have seen one of those advertised and failed to notice the old date

[Tarrel]

I must say my own attitude to climate change has changed recently, in the light of the more in-depth information I've obtained by researching the subject. I used to be of the view that "every little helps", and had adopted a somewhat angst-ridden, green-ish lifestyle.

I now realise we are totally stuffed in this regard, and that we are heading for the sort of tipping-point effects that NR and HL mention above. The only thing that could possibly prevent this would be a full-on emergency stop, e.g. sudden and total economic collapse. So, my focus has shifted more towards the prepping mindset, rather than the sustainability mindset. (Although a lot of prepping activity automatically moves you towards a more sustainable lifestyle).

Where is my prepping focus?
- Riding out the sort of SHTF scenarios we talk about on here that might result from said collapse
- Preparing for more extreme weather events
- Becoming more grid-independent
- Becoming more self-sufficient in food

Specifically, I'm thinking:
- Climate-independent growing of fruit and veg (e.g. aquaponics, growing more under glass, etc)
- Starting a rabbit farm
- Chickens
- Increasing the size of the solar array, to provide more dependable power for things such as aquaponics
- Creating a full-blown bug-out location in our woodland in case of increased flooding. (House is at low level, near the sea, woodland is also by the sea but at 40+ metres ASL).

So, yeah, I think this is definitely something worth preparing for. At the end of the day, we prepare for dealing with effects (shortages, grid-failure, civil disorder, war, natural disaster). Climate instability is one of the several causes that will lead to the effects we're already prepping for, but it has a few specific symptoms of its own that are worth focusing on.

[Highlander]

Tarrel, ...we are certainly reading off the same page