Ref Ukraine

[Lightspeed]

This crisis is a real and present threat to UK energy supplies.

Gasprom the RF state oil company has already threatened cutting the UKR supply. This is the ultimate weapon that RF has against UKR. They will cut supplies immediately UKR mobilises against them.

Winter is still not over so that this is a very strong lever, and one that RF have used in the past. When they did there was collateral supply problem to Western Europe including UK.

Baltic pipe line is now open into Germany, but there is no knowing if increased flow from that route will end up reaching UK.