Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[Lightspeed]

[Steve]

Not many people will have enough fuel to get there and those that do will run into the vehicles abandoned by those that don't. I imagine a huge jam somewhere on the A303, with desperate refugees, on foot, flooding the area between Southampton and Swindon.

[Lightspeed]

The dreaded A303 will be easily blocked as you mention.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the camping and caravanning set will have the wherewithal to get out somewhat earlier than the masses, and have the skills to get around blocked roads... after all they deal with them every time they journey to the SW over a bank holiday.

These folk also tend to be quite well prepared. I know I was. I always stored enough fuel to be able to travel the best part of 1000 miles.

[bigpaul]

there are at least 2 choke points I know of in this scenario. the first is Tiverton Parkway where the A361(North Devon link road) joins the M5, another is near Exeter where the M5 ends and joins the A30(West) and the A38(Devon Expressway), given a few storms, some trees down and some flooding..Dawlish, Cowley Bridge to name but 2, flooding across the Somerset Levels between Glastonbury and Taunton, some parts of the A377(Exeter to Barnstaple road) have recently fallen into the river and are currently under repair. you can see it wouldn't take much post SHTF to make the West Country cut off from the rest of the country .that's even if these so called "refugees" had enough fuel to even get half way, and what about tail backs and traffic jams, to say nothing of scavengers and looters?

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in any case even if they make it here-which I somehow doubt- they will head for the coast, Torquay, Paignton, Brixham, Torcross, Dawlish, Teignmouth,through the South Hams and on to Plymouth and down into Cornwall, I doubt if many have the knowledge to go "wild" camping, they will head for the camp sites and caravan parks where they have stayed and "been entertained" before, most kids these days have to be "entertained" even on holiday, very few will have any idea of where they will obtain food and water, outside of a few fishermen and someone who may have some vague recollection of rock pools.

[bigpaul]

like I say I doubt very few in number will actually make it here, given the distances that these "refugee's" have to travel, every town or city they have to travel through or past will see a few drop by the wayside or be actually "dealt with" by the inhabitants, so that by the time any get to the South West they will be few in number. we don't get tourists where I live, its not a tourist area, oh sure we see some but that's usually cos their LOST!! they usually head for places like Morwelhamquay, RHS Rosemoor, Castle Drogo or places like Princetown, like I say they have to be "entertained"!!

[Scythe13]

My first paragraph on this is just a personal annoyance...Pareto's principle is the principle of disproportionate distribution. It is often referred to as the 80/20 rule, but that is not a genuine figure set in stone. It can be 90/10 or even 99/1. It's simply disproportionate distribution.

Secondly, I think people will be very reluctant to leave their homes. VERY reluctant. If they're forced out...the roads will block up. They won't get far on foot.

[Devonian]

I'm sure a lot of them will stop in Surrey; Hampshire; Wiltshire; Somerset; Glos; Dorset etc as well.......

They will be peeling off at every junction and side road along the M5/M4/A303 etc when they see the volume of traffic.

Devon and Cornwall certainly won't be isolated in this respect.

[bigpaul]

I think people will be very reluctant to leave their homes. VERY reluctant. If they're forced out...the roads will block up. They won't get far on foot.

this is the first thing that happened in America before some of their hurricaines, everyone evacuated in their cars and the freeway became one giant car park!!

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I'm sure a lot of them will stop in Surrey; Hampshire; Wiltshire; Somerset; Glos; Dorset etc as well.......

They will be peeling off at every junction and side road along the M5/M4/A303 etc when they see the volume of traffic.

see what I said about the choke points Devonian, by the time they get to the far south west they will be few in number.

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I doubt very much that a refugee from London or the Home Counties would make it this far.

[John]

The A303 has other choke points before then. Namely the single track bits between Countess Services and the new Honiton road. Block that and you can have fun.

I like BP doubt that many will make it and those that do will be headed for the holiday resorts where they think that they will get looked after.

I also think that many will leave it too late and be unlikely to get further than the end of their road.

[bigpaul]

absolutely John, I'm thinking also of the single track road from Monkton up the hill towards the turning to Yarcombe...they've been talking about dualling that stretch for years, but it never happened due to the lie of the land,a lot of the A303 and A30 is single track, that's why there is a lot of tailbacks in the summer with people towing caravans and boats.dont think anyone would get very far before all the traffic came to a shuddering halt.