Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[NorthernRaider]

To me that just sounds like people jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. Why would they do it. I'm not saying that people won't head this way, of course they will, but the kinds of figures being quoted are unrealistic.

(NR)When ebola broke out in a sub Saharan Africa township the people could have stayed but many chose to run out into the desert, when the twin towers started burning many chose to jump rather than burn, if you had say a terrorist inspired attack in London and Brum ( could be a viral attack like Ebola or simply DIY dirty radioactive bomb) the numbers leaving would be huge. Plenty scenarios that could see millions move, the recent events in Serbia in the 90s saw entire cities flee their former neighbours. Look at the Crimea now, the poor Tartars and Ukranians are being driven out enmasse without a shot being fired.

And surely if the whole of the South East and Midlands are in such an uninhabitable state that a mass exodus of all the Cities is happening, then surely the South West would also be in a similar uninhabitable state rather than being immune and remaining picture postcard perfect???
(NR) No not so, pandemics, terror attacks, first attacks by waring nations, natural disasters etc tend to impact larger cities first. that's why as soon as the Luftwaffe started bombing London the citizens sent all the capitals kids out the the south west and Wales .

In which case it looks like the best place for any Prepper will be to head to the cities for some peace and solitude as everyone else will clearly be on the beaches of the South West.....

(NR) I hope you believe that, once the cities are without power, water, sanitation, foods, law and order and the masses have finished looting, rioting and leaving if that is where you want to go then do so with my blessing.

As for the back lanes, the farmers would soon have them blocked off, I'd like to see your average family in their ford focus trying to get past a bale of Haylage plonked in the middle of country lane. Farmers down here have been blocking access to fields, lanes and roads for years to prevent travellers and ravers going where they want.

(NR) YES of course I should have realised that after driving out of London and navigating as far SW as they could as soon as they come across a hay bail in Little Snittering they will turn around and go home. They would never abandon their vhicles and finish their journeys on bike, foot, quad, boat etc. Stopping a traveller with his transit van and caravan is somewhat different to stopping refugees without vehicles or caravans, desperation makes ingenious refugees.

And despite what some say, fuel will be a major issue for lots of people. The fuel stations will run dry in a matter of hours, most people will not have a full tank of fuel and they will not be driving at 56mph along an open motorway, they will probably be crawling at a few miles an hour, or just be stuck because the roads are blocked by accidents caused by idiots desperate to get ahead of the hoards.

(NR) Yup I point out that fact in my original post, but again equally you will find plenty of fully laden vehicles with full fuel tanks and a few jerry cans crawling along for hours, and as every hour goes by they get those few miles nearer the south west, THEN they can cycle or walk.

With the convergence of the M5 and M4 with people from the Midlands/North, Wales and London/South all converging on a very small piece of real estate, then that is where the major problems will be and a lot of people will reconsider their options and simply be stuck with no way to move on.

(NR) and equally plenty of others will find their way past, lets not forget its not just the farmers and preppers who have guns, there is no shortage of guns in mainstream society.

Which part of the "South West" do you think you can get to (under normal conditions) in 90 minutes?? Brum to Bristol is 90 minutes Bristol to Exeter is another 90 minutes. Similarly London to Exeter is a 3+ hours car journey. After TSHTF, its anyone's guess how long it will take.

(NR) as far as you can get but as soon as you get past Basingstoke, Guilford, Reading you have the huge open spaces that I know personally from my army days that are the Salisbury plains, after you pass those areas everything else is in only a few days walk for normal people, and fear is a great source of adrenalin as well.

On the other hand, Birmingham to Newcastle is just over 3 hours, a comparable time, whereas Liverpool to Newcastle is less than 3 hours and London to Newcastle is less than 5 hours, I think we need to start promoting Northumberland and the Yorkshire Moors as the ideal bug out locations, far more resources than the SW, plus you are trapped on a peninsular Wink

(NR) Yup providing you can get over the Pennines past the Leeds and Manchester conurbations, through the Yorkshire dales / moors, through the Tees bottleneck or past the Catterick bottleneck. You can spread out and enjoy the region but those who get this far wil probably keep heading for Scotland

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Yup its nicely flat and generally gently downward sloping ground to the South West, I absolutely encourage everyone wanting to bug out to head towards that land of milk and honey. The evidence is 100% overwhelming that the south west is absolutely the best and only really suitable place for preppers to set up home. I give you my word honest.