Life imitating art...
http://theconversation.com/could-nato-go...-did-59694
A new book by General Sir Richard Shirreff, Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander for Europe between 2011 and 2014, evokes a potential scenario that leads to a devastating future war with Russia. The book, 2017 War with Russia, is clearly labelled as a work of fiction. But it portrays a fairly convincing manufactured incident that the fictional president of Russia uses as a causus belli for a clash with NATO. In his account, Russia rapidly expands its war aims by invading the Baltic States, which are NATO members, and world war ensues. Perhaps more worryingly, the author has since told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that such a conflict is “entirely plausible”.
Fact vs fiction
...the book (it is a good and authentic, if gloomy, read)...the general’s underlying message...– is that the hollowing out of defence capabilities across the West and its reluctance and inability to stand up to Russia is making war ever more likely...
Shirreff’s book...is deeply critical of the West’s reduced defence spending and its unwillingness – and inability – to stand up to the Russian threat. At first sight, this appears a persuasive case, but on reflection is perhaps slightly less so...
Shirreff’s scenario assumes either that the Russian president had no other option to achieve his political goals than through the use of military force – or “hard power” – or that he is what might be termed “an irrational actor” in the mould of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Neither strikes me as convincing.
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