http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-eva...rea-2018-5
There is a base plan and a couple of branch plans to address various levels of Third Country Nationals who may be evacuated as a favor to allied nations. That plan is exercised at least twice a year, at varying levels of rehearsal. This spring they actually flew about 500 families to Guam as a test.
Every family is required to walk thru the processing twice a year. People are tracked by name and compared to G1 data base and the State Department F77 roster to ensure compliance. Like the flu shot, it’s a pain in the ass that probably benefits some people, but it’s tiresome after a few repetitions.
So there’s a plan on the shelf and people generally know what to do and how to do it. It covers DoD, DoS, all registered US nationals, contractors etc. Drawing up a plan to do it is little more than activating contracts for Civilian Reserve Air Fleet commercial aircraft, opening some warehouses and issuing supplies. Austere accommodations for the evacuee flow will be the rule. Each family is required to travel with 3 days Supply food and water to ease log burden.
Most families are in PyeongTek or points south, a hour or so south of Seoul. That move started a couple years ago. Very few DoD families remain in Seoul. All the DoS families are in Seoul and would move to Osan AIr Base for evac.
In the old days before 9-11, Korea was an unaccompanied tour except commanders and command sergeants major. GEN Leon LaPorte started the move to bring families to Korea in about 2003 and broadly supported the move to accompanied tours.
So, would a, evac order signal alarm? On its face, probably not. The Koreans around US bases would complain about lost revenue. The Korean War vets would protest. Most others would yawn and bid good riddance to everything but the dollars that come from off-post rents and shopping.
That said, Sabre rattling rhetoric would color the perception of a policy shift and might give Kim Jong Il an excuse for bad behavior. Blaming it on big bad America is a favorite tactic of Koreans North and South. It’s a Confucian culture thing to blame the powerful families so it transfers well to their foreign policy.
In my opinion and experience, the decision to conduct an NEO belongs to SecState, not SecDef. NSA should be involved only as an interagency facilitator to avoid unintended consequences. Army provides ground transport, security and life support. The planning teams include Combatant Commands and State Department. DoS has a veto vote on all aspects of the missions. Combatant Commands always came to the table with a base concept of operations. NEO is a fairly standard mission.
It’s possible this story is just the next turn in the drama with Lil Rocket Man to remind him that we are playing nicely and he should too. The Palacer Courtiers are a clever bunch in every country; their subtlety confounds me.
Does Bolton change the calculus? I don’t think so. His statutory authority is very limited. He can’t actually order anyone outside the Old Executive Office Building to to anything. He can ask, suggest, and recommend. He can build consensus. He cannot order. Orders flow from POTUS to SecDef to CJCS for DoD, and from POTUS to Ambassadors and SecState (technically equals) in DoS. National Security Advisor isn’t part of the orders loop.
In my opinion, war is less imminent on the Korean Peninsula than anytime in my life. Both sides have too much to lose and they know it. That situation could change any moment given the recalcitrance and desperation of the DPRK regime. The ball is literally in Kim’s court.
If I were POTUS for the day, I would absolutely order departure of all military dependents and non-essential USG civilians and their families. First as a cost saving measure because civilian employees receive very generous benefits abroad that they don’t get in CONUS. (I would probably order non-essential civilians home globally for the same reason. There’s just too much nonsense and bloat in manning documents).
For Korea, Early Return of dependents is different from Non-Combatant Evacuation. Early Return doesn’t signal emergency and it’s done over time. Easy. Early Return could be twisted as a prelude to war but that’s a hard stretch. DPRK would get the message that things aren’t chummy. Pundits would wail and moan, but it would settle down. And POTUS could rightly say that he’s making America stronger.
Related, I don’t worry that Bolton is a war hawk. He is plain spoken in a world where ambiguity is the norm. That’s a good thing in my view. Little room for misinterpretation. He draws bright and wide lines. Coupled with POTUS tendency to speak plainly that can only improve our foreign policy. No chance at all to stumble into war based on miscalculation.
If war comes it will be a deliberate choice.
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