Observations on the Riots in US

[CharlesHarris]

Bias warning:

I tend to read most of these things through the lens of classical insurrections. Shadow government, zones of liberation, discredit duly constituted authority, expand liberated zones, external financial and logistic support, transient recruiting etc. The specifics change for each war of insurrection, but the principles remain generally the same. Greed motivates more than grievance. Grievance is just the pretty wrapping on the communist package to get useful idiots into the streets “fighting for a better future.”

I've been watching these riot developments closely. Local events are clearly orchestrated and organized to target upscale businesses and wealthy neighborhoods. Other cities appear to follow a similar general pattern. It’s not folks walking down the street to burn Ferguson, they’re traveling significant distances to loot.

Attacks on police stations are a classic insurgent move. Discredit the police and simultaneously move them out of the way. Creates a temporary "liberated zone" and instills fear to immobilize the weak-minded citizens.

If this were a foreign country my analysis would be:

A far left wing insurrection has nominal control of several major cities, including key government offices and institutions. Left wing militias (Antifa) conduct targeted violence to purge opposition and expand control in the liberated zone through physical and psychological means. Analogous to the Former Yugoslav purges to clear out Albanians.

Most likely Course of Action (COA). Consolidate territorial gains and gain concessions from constituted government, i.e. cash to rebuild and repair, purge police and opposition leadership and install "insurgent friendly" personnel.

Most Dangerous COA. Export violence to disputed territory in suburbs. Attack critical power and energy distribution infrastructure to discredit government and opposition citizens/businesses.

The corona re-opening clearly ties into this. Dem calls for state bail outs are falling on deaf ears. Draconian blue state population and resource control measures are being resisted by normal folks. Dems are mad that their authority isn’t respected. Now the looters come out for a trivial event.

The death of a thug resisting arrest is painted as proximate cause by the race baiters who paint everything as discriminatory. It’s the superficial grievance to get the naive out en mass. But it's largely irrelevant to what’s really going on.

Weapons. Fire is the weapon of choice because it’s easy and cheap to make Molotovs. Next steps might see escalation to some form of simple IED. Commercial explosives and initiators are relatively hard to get in cities, so the devices will be crude and low yield. Incidents of sophisticated IED using commercial grade components is a major indicator.

Near term forecast. This will burn out in 10 days or so, unless there is another event, like acquittal of one of the involved officers or another in-custody death.

Trump would be wise not to over-react. He should let local officials handle things until they ask for federal assistance. Develop the tactical situation and protect critical infrastructure. However, he is acting more like a tin-pot dictator which will not go over well.

Loyal local governments would be wise to begin organizing local-authorized self defense forces. Law Enforcement Reserves and neighborhood watch teams are a good start for American culture, with a wink and a nod to “roof Koreans”. Same for fire fighters. This serves the security purpose, and more importantly instills loyalty to govt that encourages lawful self-reliance and respect for fundamental property rights.

That’s the jist of my read right now. It’s just the next phase of Obama's "fundamental transformation" that was interrupted by Trump.

This activity has all the earmarks of a classic communist insurgency:
Expand when you can, contract when your must, but always agitate.