Ukraine

[Mortblanc]

In the grand scheme of things how much bog roll and beans you have saved up means nothing in a war with Russia. Anti-hording laws would be instated immediately and they would be retroactive, just like in WW2.

The government computer sappers would be scouring prepper forums for the IP addresses of preppers with stockpiles on day one. Do expect a knock on the door.

That is not to mention that the first order of business will be shutting off your oil supply, both across the Ukraine and across from Norway. They tested that link out a couple of weeks ago, remember?

I am completely surprised that Russia has not already disconnected your supply. They are probably saving that for the thing where you turn off the lights when you leave the room! Doing so before-hand would signal the start of the invasion.

You are going to get cold fast and have no transport to anywhere after the tank runs dry.

And the well known "travel sanctions" will be in force from the date of oil shutoff. Your own government has tested that system thoroughly for the past two years. I would expect a quick arrest if found on the roads.

The internet will also be nonfunctional for one of two reasons. (1) Russia shuts it down
(2) Your own government shuts it down and blames it on Russia. There is no need to let the Russians know how bad things are back home by filtering social media.

This last little flurry of Russian activity was simply to see how fast NATO would and could mobilize, and they found out. They already knew the exact location and disposition of every soldier in western Europe, now they know how fast they can get to their taxis.

There was no intent to invade while the ground in the Ukraine was frozen and gave equal capabilities to the armor of both forces.

The intent is to wait until 4-6 days before the spring thaw and invade across country, by air, and with rapidly moving ground forces and reach their objectives just as the ground becomes "mud soup" and restricts any retaliatory strikes to (1) the main paved roads, (2) rail (3) air strikes. (there will be no NATO air superiority)

Western Europe has not fought a war with a power of equal strength and technology for nearly 80 years. You are not going up against the Argentines this time.

NATO has never in its history sent forces on missions where they expected 20%-50% casualties.

One in GB must also remember that the UK has approximately 180,000 troops under arms including all allied forces stationed or attached to UK forces. They are scattered all over the world. So far the direct commitment has been 8,000 men. The U.S. has sent the same.

NATO has approximately 60,000 troops ready for mobilization but not in staging areas.

Russia has 200,000 troops ready to take one step forward into the Ukraine.

Don't expect any of the first troops you send into an active war with Russia to come back. There will be no second Dunkirk.

I am one of the possibly 3 or 4 people on this forum that has been trained to fight against the Russian military. My trainers were NATO officers from across Europe and the UK. It was truly frightening to look at the numbers and the capabilities and have NATO trainers tell you, "you can't win, all you can do is slow them down and fight until they kill you!"

That was in the 1970s. The Russian technology has improved since then.