Ukraine

[CharlesHarris]

If the war is not going well for Russia the danger is that Putin will escalate to chem-bio-nuc to save face, make a massive strike, then withdraw and claim "victory." The ramifications of RU maybe resorting to chemical warfare are huge. Not just the Geo-political reaction but the physical encumbrance created by sliming territory across which your forces may have to later maneuver.

Even highly trained, well equipped and disciplined troops caught "under the slime" become combat ineffective.
All their time and energy will be focused on their own survival with none left over to shoot, move and communicate.

The Russian army is manned almost entirely by short term conscripts who are inexperienced, poorly trained and ill-disciplined. I’d venture that while they have the gear, my guess is that they are incapable of conducting effective operations "in the slime." (Hopefully the Russian leadership actually recognizes this fact.)

If the invader’s intention is to fully annex the territory it’s unlikely, he’ll contaminate it with poison or nuc.

I never say never but I just don’t see it happening in the near term.

I would be curious of what MB thinks, for his military education and experience is probably similar to mine.