Ukraine

[CharlesHarris]

PUTIN’S UKRAINE GAMBIT

Gambit, a device, action, or opening remark, typically one entailing a degree of risk, that is calculated to gain an advantage.

In his echo chamber, staffed with group thinking, fearful and greedy yes-men, Vladimir Putin made the following assumptions;

1. The American president/administration has no stomach for a fight and can be intimidated into inaction. (Not entirely true but close.)

2. NATO is full of member nations lacking resolve and can be intimidated into inaction. (Nope, collective shock and fear has galvanized an erstwhile gaggle of lazy states. This is the best thing to happen to NATO since the French quit.)

3. The Russian military is capable of large-scale, first-world combined arms offensive operations. (We have yet to see this. So far it looks like a cluster-fuck of Biblical proportions.)

4. The Ukrainians will fold and run, in fear of the great Russian onslaught. (Ooops, who’d have thought these folks had so much spine.)

5. The ground will stay frozen until mid-April. (Bad luck here, road travel only for Russia’s 70-ton war machines.)

6. Unexercised, lowest bidder built (Chinese) tires are good enough for government work. (Oh snap, there you go. Again, who’d a thought these bargain tires left unmaintained, unexercised and exposed to sunlight for years would fail, generally?)

7. The rest of the world will sit idlily by and do nothing. (Nope, no more Big Macs for you)

8. Atop turret grill work will mitigate top attack missile fire. (Apparently not effective perhaps due to budget cutting lack of testing or simply wishful thinking.)

That’s enough; Putin took this gambit because he believed his own propaganda and lacked a clear and realistic view of the situation.

If he’s thinking clearly and objectively, he’ll seek a way out of this mess so he can take a time out and lick his wounds.

If he’s out of his head anything can happen and anything can be a bad thing.