Is it just me ??

[bigpaul]

yep the actual figure is about 16million with 44million going starving if for some reason imports were to stop.

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i'll repost the link to the survey if anybody's interested.

[clv101]

Need to be careful with numbers like 14m. There are a lot of assumptions baked into such a number.
I presume many folk here are familiar with The Land Magazine?
A couple of interesting articles from them: Can Britain Feed Itself and a follow-up Can Britain Farm Itself.

There are certainly scenarios where even 14m people couldn't be supported, but I doubt whether 14m is the upper threshold.

[bigpaul]

OK here's the link to the survey, if you scroll down the page the UK index is number 22. http://www.populationmatters.org/documen...ountry.pdf

[I-K-E]

the scary thing would be that if TSHF big time the uk wouldn't be producing enough for the 16 million as I assuming that this number is based on modern farming methods that would be massively disrupted if RWOL happened and things like animal feed and fuel stopped being available

if end going back to pre 1800 subsistance farming type lifestyle then the numbers drop even more. I had a quick look at the population numbers and for a longtime the uk population was below 2 mil.

heres the chart on the numbers http://chartsbin.com/view/28k

how I don't think that the population would drop that low as during WWII and before framing practices have advanced massively but I still think there will be nowhere near the 16 million after a mass die off due to RWOL and starvation and it may take decades for the numbers to increase post SHTF when some sort of society emerges from the chaos

[bigpaul]

yes, if imports stop, and say no oil and no power, we would have to go back to a PRE-industrial age, based on small villages and subsistence type farming.

[David075]

so we could be looking at only 1 or 2 people out of every 10 surviving

[bigpaul]

(10 May 2013, 14:34)David075 Wrote: so we could be looking at only 1 or 2 people out of every 10 surviving

that would be a VERY large event if we had a 80% "die-off"! cant see ANYTHING being that severe myself, even the plague only managed about 50% of the national population.

[I-K-E]

(10 May 2013, 14:50)bigpaul Wrote:

(10 May 2013, 14:34)David075 Wrote: so we could be looking at only 1 or 2 people out of every 10 surviving

that would be a VERY large event if we had a 80% "die-off"! cant see ANYTHING being that severe myself, even the plague only managed about 50% of the national population.

the plague didn't have international travel and people traveling the country by planes, trains and automobiles

if an incurable disease hits with the the same mortality rates as the plague then it would be interesting to see how much effect on the population it would have

[Skean Dhude]

(10 May 2013, 14:34)David075 Wrote: so we could be looking at only 1 or 2 people out of every 10 surviving

Some scenarios have less than that. Some more. Not worth spending any time trying to calculate.

[Anything Really]

With the transportation network that we have it wouldn't take long. I think the biggest thing would be how quickly it is reported. if it takes a week to report it then i fear even the hardest prepper would be up the creek.