TS has HTF

[Highlander]

I take it you want the worse scenario....

6 hours.... very little, we all say we should be moving within that time, but realistically many of us will not,... we will be making it home, or to our place of safety,... or glued to the TV/radio if its on

6 days,... again very little, during these early days the sheeple will be panicking, and moving about, if cars are working, they will try to meet family, if not then they will be walking about aimlessly,... we dont want to be seen at all during these early days

6 weeks,... starting to settle down into a routine, the place is much quieter, although the larger estates are still operating, so bringing down deer from the hills to substitute the stores has still got to be done with a certain stealth

6 months,.. the estates have finally become empty and the workers disappeared, easier to move around now, took everything we could from local houses, there were two of us, there are now 15 within close proximity,.... we thought we saw a plane once, ...but probably not...... I have three of my five dogs, they have become much more territorial

6 years, we maybe older, but we have become harder and fitter than we used to be, there is little danger now, more diseases and infections crop up now than anything else, keeping clean is the only way,... animals roam where they never would before, not always a good thing

[Jonas]

(29 July 2013, 11:54)bigpaul Wrote: OK, lets imagine for just one moment that TS HAS hit the fan, how and what do you see happening in: 6 HOURS, 6DAYS, 6MONTHS and finally 6YEARS??

OK, the SHTF starts at 3PM on August 1st, 2013:

6 hours - nothing much. People who are aware of what's going on will be filling up their gas tanks, getting some cash from the ATM machines, and maybe buying some canned goods. Then these informed folks will either be bugging out or hunkering down. Most of the population will continue on blissfully unaware.

6 days - (August 7th, 2013) - the people are in a panic. Gasoline is in short supply to completely gone, and the grocery store shelves have been stripped bare with little chance of resupply. Electric power is "iffy". Folks down here in our small town will have their firearms "locked and loaded". It will be "open season - no bag limits" on looters. The federal government is no longer viable, despite speeches to the contrary!

60 days - (October 6th, 2013) - vegetable gardens planted in mid-August will be producing through early November. Hunting parties will be bringing in feral hogs which are common. Wives will be having "canning parties". Everyone will be planning how to ration their food supplies until May when early vegetable crops planted in late February will start to bear.

6 months - (February 1, 2014) - The US federal government is a thing of the past. Texas is now an independent republic again. Neighborhood security patrols will be up and running. News of gangs of "big city" thugs running around stealing and burning will have people on edge, but a small town with most everyone on the same page will be tough nuts to crack. City and county governments will be running in a "stripped down" mode, involved mostly in coordinating efforts to feed and provide for the population. Community gardens will be planned for planting in a month, chicken coops built, some roads into town will be blocked for security and control.

6 years - (August 1, 2019) - Welcome to the "new normal" - the population has decreased due to lack of advanced medical care and pharmaceutical drugs, but a balance has been achieved and in our little town folks are fed, and most everyone has found a niche. The Republic of Texas is now a functioning government. The borders are secured. Oil is being pumped and refined. Agriculture and the cattle business is growing. Some rationing is in effect but it's not a severe burden. The monetary unit is the "Alamo" - 1/4 oz of pure silver.

6 years - alternative - we're all dead.

[Scythe13]

Total financial collapse...okay, let's have some fun shall we?!?!

I'll start at 6 hours, but think adding events at these times will be difficult, so I'll just vector, the way I usually do. Enjoy.

6 Hours....well, considering a financial collapse is a pretty slow process, people will see it coming a mile away, right? Well, some would. Truth is, in 6 hours, unless it's hyper inflation, we'll all be blissfully unaware that the poop has actually hit the fan. It won't be until the government has declared a state of emergency, or something like that, until we will be able to state "TS Has HTF". Because, until then, people will be annoyed about fuel station queues, and lack of fresh produce. When the power outs, there will be double the 'on-duty' police, and add in some military, to 'maintain order'. The fire brigade will be roped in, no doubt. But this will cause huge stresses on them. People will be working 12 hour shifts, 12 on and 12 off.

Now is where things get really interesting, but only if you're into economics. The 'world bank' or EU will be called in to sort something out. More QE or some other CI to the banks or the people? Who knows. It all depends on what the situation really is. Whatever happens, if the UK is declared bankrupt, I believe there would be a resurgence of community. This is an obvious possibility, or more accurately, a probability. Look at Greece, Somalia, or some other place that has had serious financial issues. What about Iceland (not the supermarket)? They were declared bankrupt, but then after 9 months, they were seeing positive growth and have a booming economy! So that could well be the answer to the 6 month to 6 year section. But that all depends on how well people unite, which is seriously underestimated by the pessimist.

Okay, so, let's look at some things that will not stop, regardless of whether we are in a grid-down situation. Solar panels will continue to work. Water will still flow in streams, plants will still grow, the sun will shine, the rain will fall. Kind of stating the obvious, right? Well, yes, and so people with allotments will likely be working together to protect their crops, or they'll be working together to feed each other's families. For the pessimist, they will be killing each other to get food. Truth is, the murder rates in many places is not that high, even at times of economic crash. Mortblanc said that we would be similar to Greece. I hate to disagree. Greece is worse than we are going to be. In an island of 13 million people, where 12 million are in and around Athens, that is a much higher pop density than we have. If you look how things are over there, we will not be that bad. We will be more like Iceland.

Times will be hard, but plants will continue to grow, rain will fall, the sun will shine, and as with most disasters, a resurgence of community will cause areas to strengthen. They will self police, and protect one another.

[bigpaul]

sorry old bean but Scythe I think you are on some strange drugs if you think that!....only joking when things go pear shaped things will get worse, I have used the riots many times as an example but this time things wont get better they will just go on, and on, and on. we already have a " I want it and I want it now" culture and a "whats it to you" society so things will only get worse. people will not work together they will just grab what they can for themselves...forget "the Dunkirk spirit" or "the blitz spirit" in the UK of the 21st Century it dosent exist, its everyone for themselves.

[Skean Dhude]

BP,

I had to laugh at your comments.

You ask a very vague question and call for opinions, you get them and then you diss them because they sound too positive and don't fit in with your opinions. They are all just opinions, nothing else and as nobody knows what is going to happen then they could be right.

I hope thinks won't all be worst case.

[bigpaul]

granted SD, opinions are just opinions, and we all have our own, I am NOT dissing anyone elses opinions,i have lived in a city and large towns and I am in no doubt about the behaviour of the British public(sheeple) post shtf and I am taking this into account when making my plans. everyone is entitled to their own opinions and so am i.

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in any case I was more commenting on what young Scythe had said rather than what anyone else has said, he is young and dosent have the life experience some of us oldies have had, I know people and I know how they react to a stressful situation and it is never good. I know lots of people(but not everybody on this forum) believe that the population will band together for mutual salvation-those that survive the initial event that is- but given what I know about the human animal I do NOT believe this, I think it will be like the riots but 1000 times worse...especially in the cities.

[Steve]

People are writing that Greece isn't so bad, have they forgotten that Greece is being bailed out by the rest of the EU ? There won't be anyone to bail us out if everyone else fails at the same time.

[bigpaul]

(31 July 2013, 14:52)Steve Wrote: People are writing that Greece isn't so bad, have they forgotten that Greece is being bailed out by the rest of the EU ? There won't be anyone to bail us out if everyone else fails at the same time.

Greece isn't so bad? tell that to the people that live there-they think it IS that bad!, next is Spain and Portugal closely followed by Italy, even Germany has problems seeing as how they are bankrolling most of the bailouts! don't expect anyone to come to the rescue if we fail too.

[Mortblanc]

Yep, "Eventually you run out of other people's money!"

Who was it that said that anyway?

What do you propose be done about the insisted on super-disaster at the personal and individual level BP?

If you want to propose a hypothetical problem with only disaster as an accepted outcome how about proposing a hypothetical solution each person can implement in their own lives.

Please keep I realistic and not some plot of ruling the world from a hovel in Devon!

[bigpaul]

(31 July 2013, 15:30)Mortblanc Wrote: Yep, "Eventually you run out of other people's money!"

Who was it that said that anyway?

What do you propose be done about the insisted on super-disaster at the personal and individual level BP?

If you want to propose a hypothetical problem with only disaster as an accepted outcome how about proposing a hypothetical solution each person can implement in their own lives.

Please keep I realistic and not some plot of ruling the world from a hovel in Devon!

oh dear, Monty's swollowed a dictionary again. I have no intention of ruling the world...that intention never entered my mind..in fact much the opposite. I just wondered WTSHTF and I mean a societal collapse type event just how others saw it unfolding and in what timescale that is all. I don't think there would be a solution to that, I think we just do what we can in our own way.

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without cheap imports there would be a 75% die off as we(the UK) can only feed 16million people from the available land in this country, possibly less if we didn't have intensive farming methods, or any oil, or pesticides or fertilisers, we would have to revert to old time methods of farming pre the industrial revolution... if anyone watched "The Green Valley" this is the sort of subsistence farming/lifestyle I am talking about.