A Hard Winter

[Straight Shooter]

theguru i had the same upbringing....rabbit for sunday dinner spitting out the buck shot.......and the lamb ......bit special, but never paid for...... the old man was pretty good putting food on the table for our family...... and others..where i get my skills from...and proud of it..when i was a kid i used to go shopping for a old couple in the village on a saterday...mr mrs nunney...she was a small little lady he was tall lean suffered with dust ( from the pit ) had a plot at the allotments i can see him NOW had a wheel barrow (timber) with a cast iron wheel, stopping for a wiff every 50 ft with veg in the barrow...... anyway down the butchers i would go every sat it was always "a nice piece of briskit.... but only if its nice mindyou....... and some bones for the dog......they did,t have a dog.... (but you haven,t got a dog.... HE will know what i mean.....and he did always meat on them bones....she made a nice soup......first hand and first class , i see that guy in my thoughts, the blue lips the stoop, the long herringbone overcoat and his wifes smile....and that thruppeny bit they always found for me........that couple invade my thought on a regular basis.... not for the money.....but for the lesson in life ...its told me that there are good people ...... even if they got f,ck all....i believe in people ......these days from the outside it looks like these sorts of people don, t exist anymore....BUT THEY REALY DO ....... i am just such a one ... cause i was shown that by mr mrs nunney.... i wish i could go back and tell em they kept me in good stead...P&L

[bigpaul]

this country always makes me laugh, the first little flake of snow or leaves on the railway line and the whole country grinds to a halt!!

[Geordie_Rob]

(11 November 2012, 10:53)bigpaul Wrote: this country always makes me laugh, the first little flake of snow or leaves on the railway line and the whole country grinds to a halt!!

I don't grumble at snow on the tracks. Being a railwayman, if the line is closed it means I get a paid day at home

[bigpaul]

(11 November 2012, 18:39)Geordie_Rob Wrote:

(11 November 2012, 10:53)bigpaul Wrote: this country always makes me laugh, the first little flake of snow or leaves on the railway line and the whole country grinds to a halt!!

I don't grumble at snow on the tracks. Being a railwayman, if the line is closed it means I get a paid day at home

i hope the passengers can say the same!!

[Geordie_Rob]

(5 October 2012, 22:18)Tarrel Wrote: First time I've written one of these, so here goes...

October; A blocked lubrication channel causes a bearing to overheat in the tail rotor assembly of a transport helicopter as it is approaching one of the North Sea's largest natural gas production platforms with a delivery. The tail rotor seizes, causing the helicopter to lose control and execute a crash-landing on the platform. As it does so, vital gas lines are severed, causing a catastrophic leak and immediate explosion. 20 people are killed instantly. The injured and remaining staff are evacuated. Damage is so severe that the platform is taken out of action for the forseeable future. The UK immediately loses 10% of its gas production capacity.

November; Continued tensions between the Russian and Ukraine governments lead to Russian state-owned Gazprom using the trans-Ukraine gas pipeline as a political weapon, intermittently restricting the Ukraine's gas supply. The uncertainty leads to an immediate 20% increase in the wholesale price of natural gas. Norway, having been suffering from the recent demand-destruction-led falls in oil prices, sees an opportunity. It switches supplies of gas away from the Norway-UK pipeline to the increasingly desperate Ukraine, reneging on its commercial contract with the UK and resulting in a 20% reduction in supplies to British shores.

December; An early cold snap causes a surprise jump in natural gas demand at home, mostly among domestic consumers. The recent fall-off in supply availability means that the UK's gas reserves are drawn upon unusually early. However, people enjoy a great Christmas, putting all the World's troubles behind them, and fire up those stoves for cooking the traditional Christmas turkey.

January; As has become common in recent years, the position of the jet-stream creates a prolonged high pressure blocking weather pattern over the UK, leading to biting North-Easterly winds and heavy snow. Temperatures plunge, reaching overnight lows of -15 commonly in southern England, and as low as -25 in the Scottish Highlands. Gas demand soars, leading to unpredictable pressure-drops. Reserves reach critically low levels. Gas distribution companies begin interrupting supplies due to the unsafe low pressures. People start to suffer. The sick and elderly start to die. The Government is under pressure to act.

An emergency debate in parliament grants the Government power to enact rolling gas-supply cuts to both residential and industrial customers. There is a knock-on effect on electricity supplies and rolling black-outs are also introduced. Companies start to introduce informal three-day weeks and begin laying off zero-hour-contract workers and agency staff.

February; The icy temperatures continue. Hundreds of thousands of workers are laid off, unable to pay their bills. Energy costs rocket. The bad weather isn't helping. Protesters take to the streets, blaming the Government for its short-sightedness in energy security. Many of these demonstrations turn nasty. An incident of heavy-handed policing during one of the demos is the spark that creates a new round of rioting. The word soon spreads through social media and, before long, civil unrest is spreading through many of Britain's towns and cities. Continuing demonstrations, and striking worker picket lines become ready flash-points for riots to develop. Unlike the summer of 2011, the bad weather is hampering the police's attempts to maintain order. The disorder escalates to the point where whole town-centres become no-go areas night after night. The disorder on the streets, and the continued severe weather, start to affect transport and deliveries.

Early March; Supermarkets start to run short of basic foodstuffs....

Questions:

How would you react?
When would you react?
Would you be prepared for:
- Keeping warm?
- Keeping safe?
- Keeping fed?

Like others have said, this is a perfectly realistic scenario with (IMO) a very realistic chance of happening.

I would only react if I felt me & my family were under any sort of threat, but I would be keeping a very close eye on the news.

If the central heating was off, I would limit us to 1 room to try & retain as much heat as possible. We have a calor gas heater & 3 camping heaters (2x camping gaz & 1 cartridge type gas bottle). Also 2 camping stoves to cook with. I would put up the 4man dome tent in the front room. We all have sleeping bags, extra blankets etc..

Keeping safe - I have a dog that barks as soon as anyone is within about 3ft of the door, along with crossbow pistol, catapult & various knives.

Food wise, eating whatever we have in fridge & freezer 1st, then onto cupboards & finally onto preps (not much put away yet but my prep store is getting bigger all the time). I've got plenty of bulk stuff what we normally eat (porridge oats, no soak soup mix & pasta) so feel confident we could stand a good chance of being ok. Obviously the further off the event is, the more time I have to stock up. Although a lot of people are put off pets for prepping, my dog is the only one I actually have a long term food supply for.

There's no mention of water in your scenario, but I have a rigid plastic jerry can for water & I also have a few of the £1 shop camping water storage bottles (collapsible, hold about 5l each). Would fill those as soon as I knew an emergency was imminent. After that its onto the water butt & my improvised water filter & boiling it.

[NorthernRaider]

I get upset if I dont have three months supply of fuel for heating / cooking anyway.

[Tarrel]

Great idea about setting up the tent in the house.

I didn't mention water in the scenario, as I imagine it would keep running. The problems cited in the scenario are caused by restrictions of electricity to domestic and commercial customers. I imagine that essential services, e.g. pumping stations, would be preserved. One thing that could prevent this would be social unrest preventing maintenance or repairs being carried out. I could be wrong though.

I suppose the bottom line is that water is such an essential item to survival that it needs to be provisioned, even though the risks of supply failure are low in this scenario.

[TheGuru]

(12 November 2012, 01:34)Tarrel Wrote: Great idea about setting up the tent in the house.

I didn't mention water in the scenario, as I imagine it would keep running. The problems cited in the scenario are caused by restrictions of electricity to domestic and commercial customers. I imagine that essential services, e.g. pumping stations, would be preserved. One thing that could prevent this would be social unrest preventing maintenance or repairs being carried out. I could be wrong though.

I suppose the bottom line is that water is such an essential item to survival that it needs to be provisioned, even though the risks of supply failure are low in this scenario.

Are you kidding me on Tarrel I thought you now stayed up here in Jockland with the rest of us, water is not going to be a problem as it never stops pissing with rain.

[Tarrel]

Our area has the highest sunshine record in mainland Scotland (not saying much, I know!), second only to Tiree apparently. We're in a rain-shadow, apparently. However, point taken. Water doesn't figure too critically in my personal preps, apart from rainwater capture. We have a 2000 litre garden pond that we can run through the Katadyne if push comes to shove.

To be fair, the scenario was aimed at a generic UK audience, so water should figure (especially if you're in East Anglia).

---

p.s. Had my porridge in the garden this morning. Not bad for mid-November at 58 degrees north. Global warming? Just hard? Or just stupid? Answers on a postcard...

[Highlander]

We dont get a lot of snow in this part of the Highlands, we are a bit too close to the sea,... but it does get cold and that effects transport in and out of the area, hills become too icy, so being prepared is an every year activity.

Of course as we get older so our needs become more important, so over the last few years we put in the cavity wall insulation, we added Solar panels, [ that work well, even in Scotland ], we also have oil fired central heating linked to a multi fuel stove [ in case the oil runs out or cant get to us ]

I have 6 months food, and a full camping supply from tents to stoves and candles

Hard winters are determind on how prepared you are,... not prepared, then its going to be hard

We probably have about three years supply of wood, we have two good generators to keep the home lights burning, we have five dogs including three German Shepherds who need their two freezers of venison from defrosting.

Water is not a problem, as the Guru said above it doesnt often stop raining, and if it did then Loch Shiel is a few hundred metres away