D-Day, when with the SHTF ?

[Weyoun]

Knowing the answer to this would be pretty useful. My guess is that the likes of Obama and Cammyboy already know, hence the raft of draconian laws being introduced, and the complete militarisation of the UK Police Force, sorry, service.

My guess is between 1 and 3 years from now. Some event, or series of events, that I do not wish to enlarge on in this thread, will cause fuel or food, or both to run dry. People will not know what has hit them and the decent into chaos and mayhem will be swift.

We've all seen the predictions on how many people will die, over what period of time, but thinking about it, the sheer misery, pain and awfulness of it all is numbing.

When D-Day comes, some of us will be prepared. Some more than others. Those, the vast majority who are not prepared, are going to come looking for us. That scares me most.

It's not the Chavs, they will die off quickly without their fish & chips and cheapo Iceland crappy meals, it is the tribal groups from Africa and other places, who are not disjointed and who have experienced urban warfare before. They are the scary ones.

Yes, when D-Day does arrive, we need to be able to fend off these marauding gangs and protect our families and stashes.

So, the countdown begins.

Predictions ? and scenarios. ?

Thanks

Steve

[Reality Jones]

The Chavs wont die off as quickly as you think they will Steve, take a look at inner city housing estates and the gangs that control them. They're already organised and most definatley tribal !

[mikebratcher69]

Rj as you said the chavs will last quite a while, with there stockpiles of lager and crisps and such, I'd be looking at at least 3 to 6 months for people to completely run out of food then start dyeing off. 1-2 years for majority dye off. As people raid each other for food groups they will hang on for longer, that hampers us starting planting and such as crops have to be hidden to protect from raiding etc. The trouble for us starts with everything taking so long, because even normal sweet and innocent people can get dangerous when hungry.

[Scythe13]

I tend to agree with the chav's longevity after everything happens. There are loads of places all over the country that the police don't go into after dark. It's not because of the wildlife, it's the organisation and team work of the gangs that live in those areas.

People can survive 40 days without food. Many Christians do the same fasting as Jesus, and they come out just fine. Which makes me think the whole 28 days without food scenario is bollocks. I know 2 people that have done the 40 days fasting, and they seemed just fine afterwards. After day 2 they weren't even complaining because they said they didn't feel hungry. Which makes me think the general population will take around 3 months, minimum, until they are dying of hunger. Don't forget cannibalism which will get people living longer. As a general rule, expect people to be removed from the status quo within 6 months. That'll be when it's "safe" to return back to cities (or have your first ever trip to a city, if your name is BP haha).

But that's not what this thread is about. This thread is asking about when we expect the poop to drop and hit that big ol' fan.

Well, considering China expect a war in the Middle-East this summer, and by the looks of it, everyone else does as well, I think an oil crisis could be as close as Christmas. Depending on the severity of the Middle East, it could even be sooner.

In regards to a total collapse of society, it will be when fuel costs £5 a litre. By then a tin of beans will cost something like £3.00 and a loaf of bread will be £6.00 or there abouts. These things will be when taxes increase to pay for everyone on the dole, and those in jobs will not be able to afford it, then there will be hyperinflation because the government will scrap quantitive easing and opt for a more aggressive system....print the money and let the presses push out as much cash as possible. Then inflation will be something rediculous like 20% a day, like in Zimbabwe or anywhere else that's had hyperinflation. When that happens, it's only a matter of days...weeks. To be fair, 2 months of hyperinflation would be far beyond my expectations.

I'm expecting something of a reasonable size to shake up society by the end of the year. Probably middle east/oil centred. Financial issues by about 2015, if nothing has happened sooner than that.

[bigpaul]

maybe Chavs(Lumpunts down here) will last awhile, but just how much FOOD have they got stored? have they got freezers full of TV dinners ? or do they shop from week to week? a lot of people on this estate dont store much as we have a local Co-oP store in town, i see trolleys full coming out of there. just how long will their food last once the power goes off? maybe in the big cities they can find/loot food in the stores but around here once the Co-oP and the Bakery have been emptied that it!!we dont have the Ethnic problem here, 2 chinese families, 1 Black single father and 1 Greek burger bar owner (Name of GEORGE).

[Timelord]

You won't last 40 days without food in a PSHTF scenario and come out ok! In fact without external heating in a cold climate and at any time - using body energy reserves just to move around and survive, then it could be a lot less. Also the weaker you become, the faster the degredation. Even surviving for a certain number of days without food, does not mean you will recover due to internal organ damage. The body has 3 modes of energy reserves. By the time you get into the 3rd and your body starts to literally digest its own innards, then the process can quickly become irreversable. Cannibalism will not supply a balanced diet (hohoho) and even this will not on its own, suffice in the longer term. Any infections or diseases picked up , while not immediately critical, will only compound the rate of attrition.
On the brighter side - If we are aware of this already, then we can plan to mitigate the scenario. TL.

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(19 March 2012, 13:41)bigpaul Wrote: we dont have the Ethnic problem here, 2 chinese families, 1 Black single father and 1 Greek burger bar owner (Name of GEORGE).

You could always eat a nice chinese or a greek burger. Slavver slavver!

[Scythe13]

(20 March 2012, 01:17)Timelord Wrote: without external heating in a cold climate and at any time - using body energy reserves just to move around and survive, then it could be a lot less.

That's a really good point. The majority of the calories people burn is down to maintaining their internal temperature and keeping them alive. Only 8-10% of calories are used in the form of exercise. The basal metabolic rate will naturally reduce, however, to starve to death does take more than 40 days. The main reason people die before they reach that date is because they lose moral and things like that. That releases cortisol and other dangerous hormones that degrade your body much faster. It's as you said TL, the weaker the body, the faster you break down. If a person is able to maintain higher spirits, they are capable of living much longer than a negative person in the same situation. Remember that guy in the car that survived on snow? That was like 34 days or something, and that's just on snow. No calories in water.

[bigpaul]

people will not last very long without food supplies, remember most work these days is of a sedentry nature, usually sitting down, after TSHTF you will be doing more labour intensive tasks so you will need more food not less.