A few possible scenarios

[Skvez]

Possible scenarios we need to consider preparing for.

Sever Weather Short-term event (1 or 2 weeks)
loss of power
Unwise to travel
Shops either closed, without food (panic buy picked clean) or unsafe to travel to

Sever Economic downturn (great depression 2)
Medium-term event (1 or 2 years)
Loss of jobs
Food expensive
Tax and price increases on those who still have jobs.
Many unemployed looking for handouts (or other ways to acquire the things they want).

Climate change Long-term event (lifetime)
gulf stream slows/stops
UK experiences temps like Canada (winter temps get down to -15C range)
Most UK homes not suitable, plumbing (which is mostly run outside) freezes
growing food 'problematic'

Pandemic short to medium term event (1 to 6 months)
Smallpox like infection.
Many deaths
Most people stop going to work
infrastructure comes to a grinding halt, no food, rationed or no power, limited or no water.

Nuclear 'incident' medium term event (1 or 2 years)
Either accident at a plant or 'man made' limited event
Mass evacuation (even by those not at risk)
Infrastructure in safe areas overwhelmed
Panic by the sheeple

Total global Economic collapse (TEOTWAWKI) Long-term event (lifetime)
Governments fall
WROL (Without Rule Of Law)
Collapse of infrastructure
Mass shortages in some foods
What foods are capable of being grown locally, machines are not available to harvest.

MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Global Nuclear War
We're all dead anyway unless you have a nuclear sub as a BOV or a deep underground bunker with at least a years food.

[Reason for edit: formatting]

[Skean Dhude]

(29 August 2011, 11:21)Skvez Wrote: Possible scenarios we need to consider preparing for.

Good list. Pick your risk(s) and plan for them.

(29 August 2011, 11:21)Skvez Wrote: MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Global Nuclear War
We're all dead anyway unless you have a nuclear sub as a BOV or a deep underground bunker with at least a years food.

No longer true, if it ever was, that we are all dead. The West may be dead but there are not that many nuclear targets in the southern hemisphere and as we reduce our warhead inventory and refine our targeting we may not be certain that a nuclear winter will arrive.

Basically though our species will be driven back to Africa, South America and Australia. No UK, US, EU, Russia, Asia will be devastated. So MAD really refers to the ones on the trigger not our species.

Of course this is a theory and awaiting a real test which I hope we never have.

The only problem is that I prefer to think of it as MAD because the biggest issue we could have is if our leaders think a nuclear war could be survivable.

[Skvez]

Skean,

True but I meant 'we' in terms of the UK.

There is nowhere in the British Isles that’s far enough away, it's just too small for us to survive hits on either major population centres or military targets. I suppose the Falkland islands are probably going to be the part of the UK least affected.
Hence the Bug Out Submarine

[Skean Dhude]

(29 August 2011, 14:39)Skvez Wrote: True but I meant 'we' in terms of the UK.

There is nowhere in the British Isles that’s far enough away, it's just too small for us to survive hits on either major population centres or military targets.

Accepted. It will only take 5 hits in the OK out of Russia's 18,000+ weapons to destroy us. What are the chances they will use less?

[iaaems]

Severe Weather: This can happen anytime - usually with some advance notice.
Severe Economic Downturn: We might just be in the middle of one of those right now.
Climate Change: I am told that the Jet Stream moves now and then which probably explains our longer than usual winter - but isn't the 'climate' always changing?
Pandemic: One or two of those over the last fifty years or so in different parts of the world including this country.
Of all the items on the list given I would think that the above are more likely to happen.
Nuclear Incident, Total Economic Collapse, M.A.D. Global Nuclear War: There are so many vested interests about these days that the likelihood of any of these happening are probably less likely than the first four - AT LEAST I WOULD HOPE SO.
As I am a total newbie to 'the cause' you might think that I am being a little bit simplistic - but my comments above are based on my life experiences so far.

[Skvez]

Iaaems,

Absolutely.
The list (more or less) goes from least sever at the top to most sever at the bottom and also goes from most likely at the top to least likely at the bottom … more or less.

[Skean Dhude]

I agree with most but the last part with low probabilities I would still order like this;

Nuclear Incident. - Accidents happen especially when people are trying to make them. So up at notch or two.

Total Economic Collapse - Increasing in risk every day and is much closer than we think. If something right is not done soon it will occur. So far it seems that nothing is being done right and I'm not sure it is accidental.

MAD. Way down the bottom atm. It is linked with TEC though. If that happens all bets are off.

[grumpy old man]

hi
i think a sever economic downturn 1st then nuclear incident or a TEOTWAWKI is more likely.
sever weather happens all the time but evertime it happens those who are ment to help cry it's never happened this bad before? they are just not ready for it.
climate change i think is slowly happening now or it seems that to me?
and MAD keeps us safe no big country would really think a full on neclear war is winning. the russians aren't that stuiped and who would buy all the cheap stuff from china.
just leaves korea and iran but i thing america would fire first to stop it after all it is the only country to have used it in the past. and in all fairness it is all about the globle trade and the money now.

[Skean Dhude]

Grumpy.

I think there is still time to fix it but the politicians seem to be avoiding doing anything positive and actually making things worse.

The risks talked about are in order of likelyhood but not impact. So preparing for a storm will not cover you for a nuclear war but preparing for a nuclear war will cover you for the worse storm you can imagine. That is why we prepare for the worst we think could come and it covers us for lesser events.

I can't see the US doing a proactive nuclear strike on Iran. It is more likely the other way around and that is something we really don't want. Although a nuclear waste where the Middle East is would make the world a safer place.

[Lord T]

I think collapse is a lot closer than we think. Even major players in government are starting to admit there are real risk that it will collapse. Parts of Europe first followed by us next year as we waste resources trying to stave off the inevitable.