Moneyweek article, The end of Britain, Economic collapse

[Scythe13]

(7 January 2013, 16:50)BDG Wrote: The article is a little shaky I feel - it is little more than a blueprint for how a financial collapse might happen - I would expect the same from a GCSE Business Studies essay. It offers no time frame, it offers no trigger point and comes across as exactly what it is and can be seen in hundreds of other places on the internet - an advert to get you to sign up to something.

Now, here are my three tips to protect yourself in the even of an economic collapse:

1. Buy a farm or large small holding where you can grow the majority of you own food, cut enough firewood for fuel for the home and stick on some renewables and get a large battery bank.

2. Build a barn around three full sized shipping containers - one full of canned goods, one full of clothing and one full of toiletries, hygiene items and first aid supplies.

3. Ensure you have means to defend yourself legally.

As for precious metals, if the situation plays out as in the article, it is quite clear the Govt would control the monetisation of the metals - making them worth what ever the Govt deems. You can bet you hat the Govt will value them lower in country than they are worth out country so the Govt can make a profit on their trade - that is unless you find yourself in the unlikely scenario of being able to trade with some Ragnar Danneskjöld type chap.

They have their place for dealing with certain situations such as GTFO during war or civil disorder or as a base of trade in situations WROL, but I would rather have a steel knife then than a silver one...

You've always come across very well educated, but this reply surprises me a lot.

No financial magazine is allowed to give solid advice on what people MUST/SHOULD do. Technically they can, but they're going to get screwed on the legal front (same reason I post 'legal warning' or 'invest on your own research' style things on my financial posts). Telling someone to invest is such a dangerous thing to do, that it's really not worth it. Advice is very different though. What MoneyWeek, and other such magazines do is inform people on their research, understanding, and the alike, then give recommendations for people to look into or about what they think will be good. But they also state that all such investments are done at the risk of the person investing and upon their own understanding, and about how the magazine has no part if the stock/PM/tip ends up failing.

As for a GCSE level assignment, I'd be impressed if a kid came up with something like that.

Why is it that the richest people on earth are buying into precious metals, while the poorer ones are selling them for "QuikCash" or 'Money4Gold" deals? Because they're idiots and not understanding what is going on in the financial world!!! Here's a quick quote I like "When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to stop and reflect." -Mark Twain. Does that make you think that knocking the Precious Metal holders is a silly thing to do?

As for the above idea of buying a farm, build a barn, stock all the stuff, defend yourself....great ideas. Where are the millions of pounds to do so going to come from? Maybe if you invested in precious metals properly, you'd be able to buy that farm, stock it up, and afford to pay the land taxes levied on you by the government.

In the Great Depression, the PM traders still existed. They were able to make profit. People were buying precious metals at extortionate prices! At one point, you could buy a house for about 82 ounces of silver (that's the lowest figure I've seen in my research, so don't think it's an average). At today's prices, of about $25 an ounce that's $2050, or £1500 (VERY loose conversion to GBP). Remember the Dot-Com boom? People with a website were making BILLIONS nearly over night? Tulipmania where a tulip was selling for around £100'000? People do some crazy things. This latest move to sell all their gold and silver is one of those crazy things.

---

I'm happy to be laughed at for having precious metals. Laugh all you want. I've already tripled my money while the market crashed.

I'll continue to hold the metals for a while, then cash out when I think the time is right. Then I'll buy a farm, build a barn, legally defend myself, etc. Then you can tell me how expensive precious metals are and how they're a great investment. Follow the flock, and get ready for the crash of the PM-boom. Guess what I'll do when the prices tank and drop? I'll start buying back at a HUGE discount! BARGAIN!!!

[BDG]

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: You've always come across very well educated, but this reply surprises me a lot.

Starting off like that gives the air of you being very condescending. What did the German Shepard think of your ideas on gold and silver or were you guarding confectionery / pirate money today?

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: No financial magazine is allowed to give solid advice on what people MUST/SHOULD do.

Please, highlight to me where I said they did or should? If you are responding to me highlighting a very vague time frame, you are constructing a straw man there.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: Technically they can, but they're going to get screwed on the legal front (same reason I post 'legal warning' or 'invest on your own research' style things on my financial posts). Telling someone to invest is such a dangerous thing to do, that it's really not worth it. Advice is very different though. What MoneyWeek, and other such magazines do is inform people on their research, understanding, and the alike, then give recommendations for people to look into or about what they think will be good. But they also state that all such investments are done at the risk of the person investing and upon their own understanding, and about how the magazine has no part if the stock/PM/tip ends up failing.

I did not say any different to the above - I did however say that the article was little more than an advertisement for a product - which it is.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: As for a GCSE level assignment, I'd be impressed if a kid came up with something like that.

What, that financial collapse = restriction on institutional credit > run on bank > further increase in interest rate > drop in property prices to reflect increased cost of credit and decreased demand > further problems of varying magnitude?

I would be worried if a GCSE business studies student could not fathom that and pad it out in an essay.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: Why is it that the richest people on earth are buying into precious metals, while the poorer ones are selling them for "QuikCash" or 'Money4Gold" deals? Because they're idiots and not understanding what is going on in the financial world!!! Here's a quick quote I like "When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to stop and reflect." -Mark Twain. Does that make you think that knocking the Precious Metal holders is a silly thing to do?

The richest people on earth are putting there money in which ever investments their financial planners tell them.

You know what happens when people want to buy gold and silver, or any other finite product for that matter? The price goes up. Do not for one second think they are putting the majority of their money into gold and silver, or hiding it under the bed or burying it in PVC tubes, because they are not.

Look at which nations having been increasing national stocks of gold. Look at which nations are going to struggle the most when the west does not or cannot buy there goods - the gold is there to tide over that country. When it needs tiding over, expect a slump.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: As for the above idea of buying a farm, build a barn, stock all the stuff, defend yourself....great ideas. Where are the millions of pounds to do so going to come from? Maybe if you invested in precious metals properly, you'd be able to buy that farm, stock it up, and afford to pay the land taxes levied on you by the government.

How big a farm do you think you will need? You do know with any money you invest in gold and silver, getting a farm now and playing the subsidies game properly will beat any gain on gold and silver? You will have a farm at the end of it. With gold and silver, you sell it for cash, which, due to inflation, may be worth nothing the next day.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: In the Great Depression, the PM traders still existed. They were able to make profit.

This is not surprising, the vast majority of trader in all commodities still made a profit - the majority did not go bust - if they had, you would have saw the collapse of society then.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: People were buying precious metals at extortionate prices! At one point, you could buy a house for about 82 ounces of silver (that's the lowest figure I've seen in my research, so don't think it's an average). At today's prices, of about $25 an ounce that's $2050, or £1500 (VERY loose conversion to GBP).

You can buy a house with plenty of land in rural America for $25000 NOW. Now, accepting your ghetto maths, accept mine when I say inflation on a fiat currency makes $25000 now worth $2000 then.

So 80 years ago 82 Oz of silver would buy you 10% of the property it buys you now. All it proves is that commodities can be volatile in price and as a long term investment, land and property knock them into a cocked hat.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: Remember the Dot-Com boom? People with a website were making BILLIONS nearly over night? Tulipmania where a tulip was selling for around £100'000? People do some crazy things. This latest move to sell all their gold and silver is one of those crazy things.

And the times anyone got rich it were those that were controlling the boom and so could sell at the highest price - once they sell, the arse drops out of it.

Remember that country I was referring to earlier?

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: I'm happy to be laughed at for having precious metals. Laugh all you want. I've already tripled my money while the market crashed.

So I take it you have sold your metals, for until you sell, you have not trippled anything other than you hold assets to a certain value. All the while you hold them, it is twitchy bum time, as you have to know the right moment to get off the bus.

I would guess that you are not managing a sovereign wealth fund and so are not leading the market, and so are having to judge your getting of the bus before the sovereign wealth fund does.

Maybe you will be clever, or lucky or sensible and sell up sooner rather than later, but the vast majority of the small men never do, and it is they who get stung.

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: I'll continue to hold the metals for a while, then cash out when I think the time is right. Then I'll buy a farm, build a barn, legally defend myself, etc. Then you can tell me how expensive precious metals are and how they're a great investment. Follow the flock, and get ready for the crash of the PM-boom. Guess what I'll do when the prices tank and drop? I'll start buying back at a HUGE discount! BARGAIN!!!

If you get off the bus in time. Then you will have to convert your metal to money and your money to goods and assets and here you run into problems of the things you cannot control - the value of your metal, restrictions on use of capital, abundance of land, quality of land, cost of land, abundance of goods, cost of goods &c.

Then you are going to have to learn to farm, look after stock and defend land in what could be pretty hostile times.

[GrannyMike]

i would say buy land first it always gos up in value start small a acre or so in the counyside just a bare field and build a smallholding i bought 3 acres 22years ago for 4.5k at the time my house morg was 1019 a mouth gave up the house and after 4mouths bought this place value now about350k but iam not selling lot of unused land around us which we could use if shtf happens os size is not main thing haha
getting back to buying silver used to deal in antiques and yes silver items forks cups etc can be good value and cheaper than srcap value
buy things you will need now and save money banks pay shit intest rates anyway ours 0.5

[cryingfreeman]

I have been buying PMs (mostly gold) on bullionvault.com for years now. The most I ever had was around £13K of gold, nothing to get excited about. But I have found it easy to use and have managed to make a few grand off it. I'm... suspicious of the PM market though and would only use it as part of a "many eggs, many baskets" strategy.

[Scythe13]

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: You've always come across very well educated, but this reply surprises me a lot.

Starting off like that gives the air of you being very condescending. What did the German Shepard think of your ideas on gold and silver or were you guarding confectionery / pirate money today?

I really did mean that you seem very intelligent, and your response has shown that. Sorry if it came across condescending.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: No financial magazine is allowed to give solid advice on what people MUST/SHOULD do.

Please, highlight to me where I said they did or should? If you are responding to me highlighting a very vague time frame, you are constructing a straw man there.

Your response to the initial post was that it didn't have any timescale, and was only a blueprint. They can't give exact details for legal reasons, and we both know that economic forecasting is difficult to timescale, at best. So they will do what they can, and explain what people need to look for and about what they see coming. Yes it's also an advert, but MoneyWeek is one of the best financials available and foresaw the 2007 collapse 2 years a head of time.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: Technically they can, but they're going to get screwed on the legal front (same reason I post 'legal warning' or 'invest on your own research' style things on my financial posts). Telling someone to invest is such a dangerous thing to do, that it's really not worth it. Advice is very different though. What MoneyWeek, and other such magazines do is inform people on their research, understanding, and the alike, then give recommendations for people to look into or about what they think will be good. But they also state that all such investments are done at the risk of the person investing and upon their own understanding, and about how the magazine has no part if the stock/PM/tip ends up failing.

I did not say any different to the above - I did however say that the article was little more than an advertisement for a product - which it is.

I agree, my mistake there. Kind of went off on one.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: As for a GCSE level assignment, I'd be impressed if a kid came up with something like that.

What, that financial collapse = restriction on institutional credit > run on bank > further increase in interest rate > drop in property prices to reflect increased cost of credit and decreased demand > further problems of varying magnitude?

I would be worried if a GCSE business studies student could not fathom that and pad it out in an essay.

Time to get worried then. I had a load of people on my course (Business Management at uni) while sat in the union watching the budget announcement a few years back and asking me about why the gov would change the interest rate and what that would do to a business or consumer. Most uni students don't see how the change in interest rate changed the house prices. It's a fricking scary thought, but that's how it is.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: Why is it that the richest people on earth are buying into precious metals, while the poorer ones are selling them for "QuikCash" or 'Money4Gold" deals? Because they're idiots and not understanding what is going on in the financial world!!! Here's a quick quote I like "When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to stop and reflect." -Mark Twain. Does that make you think that knocking the Precious Metal holders is a silly thing to do?

The richest people on earth are putting there money in which ever investments their financial planners tell them.

You know what happens when people want to buy gold and silver, or any other finite product for that matter? The price goes up. Do not for one second think they are putting the majority of their money into gold and silver, or hiding it under the bed or burying it in PVC tubes, because they are not.

Look at which nations having been increasing national stocks of gold. Look at which nations are going to struggle the most when the west does not or cannot buy there goods - the gold is there to tide over that country. When it needs tiding over, expect a slump.

Now I know you're joking about that. Warren Buffet famously said "Wall Street is the only place where people take a limo to get financial advice from someone that caught the subway."

The 'smart' money is in Precious Metals. The richest people on earth (not some guy you know that makes £100K a year, but the RICHEST people on earth) have been on about PM's for a while. Most of the world's mighty wealthy are not recognised as having financial planners. Tax advisers, tax lawyers, and the alike....yes. Financial planners? Rarely (I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I don't know everything so that doesn't mean none have FP's). I can think of many VERY rich people who have said the only reason they're not in precious metals is because they can build businesses that will beat the investment increases offered by PM's. Having said that, even Donald Trump is checking the PM route.

Considering the Buffet took collection for hundreds (possibly thousands, but I can't remember) of tones of Silver a few years back, I hate to disagree that they're putting money into precious metals. Trump is on the PM's. Kiyosaki is big with the PM's. Secker..PMing it up! Even Bill Gates has checked that baby and smiled at it. Soros.....PMing it bit time. Carlos Slim.....you guessed it.

Interesting that you mentioned a slump. In times of financial slump, PM's are at their highest. Seems like the smart money is already checking that route and expecting the inevitable.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: As for the above idea of buying a farm, build a barn, stock all the stuff, defend yourself....great ideas. Where are the millions of pounds to do so going to come from? Maybe if you invested in precious metals properly, you'd be able to buy that farm, stock it up, and afford to pay the land taxes levied on you by the government.

How big a farm do you think you will need? You do know with any money you invest in gold and silver, getting a farm now and playing the subsidies game properly will beat any gain on gold and silver? You will have a farm at the end of it. With gold and silver, you sell it for cash, which, due to inflation, may be worth nothing the next day.

Is that why so many farmers are committing suicide, because of the gains they're making from their subsidies? Maybe they're playing the game wrong, you could be spot on and I'm not doubting that. But I don't feel I'd have enough knowledge to play that game. You don't need to sell PM's to exchange them. Last depression, people were literally exchanging silver for property. In many countries with huge inflation, they do the same thing. Direct exchange, I buy your house, you get a load of silver, no CASH changes hands. The same was true in Germany years back before WW2.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: People were buying precious metals at extortionate prices! At one point, you could buy a house for about 82 ounces of silver (that's the lowest figure I've seen in my research, so don't think it's an average). At today's prices, of about $25 an ounce that's $2050, or £1500 (VERY loose conversion to GBP).

You can buy a house with plenty of land in rural America for $25000 NOW. Now, accepting your ghetto maths, accept mine when I say inflation on a fiat currency makes $25000 now worth $2000 then.

So 80 years ago 82 Oz of silver would buy you 10% of the property it buys you now. All it proves is that commodities can be volatile in price and as a long term investment, land and property knock them into a cocked hat.

This is 2 parts: The Ghetto maths.....82oz silver could buy a house outright. 82oz of silver now could not.....but come economic instability to a greater extent.....people panic buy, silver rises in price, houses and land decrease in value, great time to exchange one for the other. And you know land prices in America is much better than here in the UK. 2 mil is a big amount, but I was using it to make a point, not meant as an accurate direct value.

As for the 82oz then, 82oz now, property winning the investment war......agree with the second half. PM's are volatile, and I'm only using them as a way to later invest in land. Right now buying PM's will make a faster return than buying land. Then the increase in PM cost and a decrease in people able to buy land will naturally make more land available for me. Land and property is my end goal, but to make a gain to increase my buying power, it's currently about PM's.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: Remember the Dot-Com boom? People with a website were making BILLIONS nearly over night? Tulipmania where a tulip was selling for around £100'000? People do some crazy things. This latest move to sell all their gold and silver is one of those crazy things.

And the times anyone got rich it were those that were controlling the boom and so could sell at the highest price - once they sell, the arse drops out of it.

Remember that country I was referring to earlier?

Also those that saw the repeated pattern and got out while making a hefting profit managed to do well. I plan on being one of the sellers and watching he arse drop out. I'm not holding to PM's for a long term thing. I think I'll be all out of them by 2020, and onto property by then.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: I'm happy to be laughed at for having precious metals. Laugh all you want. I've already tripled my money while the market crashed.

So I take it you have sold your metals, for until you sell, you have not trippled anything other than you hold assets to a certain value. All the while you hold them, it is twitchy bum time, as you have to know the right moment to get off the bus.

I would guess that you are not managing a sovereign wealth fund and so are not leading the market, and so are having to judge your getting of the bus before the sovereign wealth fund does.

Maybe you will be clever, or lucky or sensible and sell up sooner rather than later, but the vast majority of the small men never do, and it is they who get stung.

Sold out my initial investment, got my money back and a load more, and have only bought more PM's when I have been able to find them at a discount where the seller doesn't realise what they have. So, in that regard, you're right. All I have is an initial investment of a load of silver, gold, platinum, and other such. Total initial investment amount still in investment.....£0.00. If I placed £5000 into Silver at $6.50 an ounce, then cashed in a chunk of that when it increased to $18 an ounce, I have managed to bring back £7000, and still have a high valued amount of silver sat happily waiting for me to cash it in. Gold was an easy one to see, and when the price was uber high, cashed out of that and pocketed the change. Other PM's are hugely undervalued and those are the ones, like gold, that area easy to see, and the one's I'm in at the moment.

Of course the majority get stung. They'll buy in when the price is rising, and assume they can make a quick buck. Like they did with the house boom from 2003 to 2007-8 and then they got stung. Same as the dot-com boom, same as Tulipmania many years ago, when people were selling their homes for a fricking tulip bulb, only to realise that all they have is a damn plant seed and no home! People repeat cycles.

(7 January 2013, 20:20)BDG Wrote:

(7 January 2013, 17:22)Scythe13 Wrote: I'll continue to hold the metals for a while, then cash out when I think the time is right. Then I'll buy a farm, build a barn, legally defend myself, etc. Then you can tell me how expensive precious metals are and how they're a great investment. Follow the flock, and get ready for the crash of the PM-boom. Guess what I'll do when the prices tank and drop? I'll start buying back at a HUGE discount! BARGAIN!!!

If you get off the bus in time. Then you will have to convert your metal to money and your money to goods and assets and here you run into problems of the things you cannot control - the value of your metal, restrictions on use of capital, abundance of land, quality of land, cost of land, abundance of goods, cost of goods &c.

Then you are going to have to learn to farm, look after stock and defend land in what could be pretty hostile times.

My dad used to say it's never wrong to sell and walk away with a profit. As long as you can take knowing you didn't sell at the very peak, but sold relatively close to it and can live without that extra tiny bit of profit, then you're onto a winner. If something doubles in price and you sell, does it matter if it ended up tripling? It only matters if you're not emotionally mature about money. I will probably sell well before the peak, to avoid the crash.

As for learning to defend in hostile times, you're right. But I'll have the best equipment, a bigger farm, supplies, supplies for a team, and a load more, if I work things carefully financially. Anyway, it might not collapse totally, in which case, I'd be sitting pretty with an ultra tech farm, driving a John Deer or something like that. Better yet, I might end up with a load of property, collecting a chunk of rent, and the world returns to normal, and I still get to live on a farm!!! HAHA, I don't have that much precious metal....yet haha.


Good answers though BGD, and food for thought.

[BDG]

(8 January 2013, 15:25)Scythe13 Wrote: Now I know you're joking about that. Warren Buffet famously said "Wall Street is the only place where people take a limo to get financial advice from someone that caught the subway."

The 'smart' money is in Precious Metals. The richest people on earth (not some guy you know that makes £100K a year, but the RICHEST people on earth) have been on about PM's for a while. Most of the world's mighty wealthy are not recognised as having financial planners. Tax advisers, tax lawyers, and the alike....yes. Financial planners? Rarely (I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I don't know everything so that doesn't mean none have FP's). I can think of many VERY rich people who have said the only reason they're not in precious metals is because they can build businesses that will beat the investment increases offered by PM's. Having said that, even Donald Trump is checking the PM route.

Considering the Buffet took collection for hundreds (possibly thousands, but I can't remember) of tones of Silver a few years back, I hate to disagree that they're putting money into precious metals. Trump is on the PM's. Kiyosaki is big with the PM's. Secker..PMing it up! Even Bill Gates has checked that baby and smiled at it. Soros.....PMing it bit time. Carlos Slim.....you guessed it.

Interesting that you mentioned a slump. In times of financial slump, PM's are at their highest. Seems like the smart money is already checking that route and expecting the inevitable.

LOL @ £100K a year. I am not talking about some insurance salesman.

A tax lawyer and an accountant are financial planners, for they help to get the best return for their clients. They employ the services of fun managers - sure, they play different markets themselves, but only with what they know they can afford to lose - they have someone else behind the scenes managing a lot more than that.

Now, think of you, the average man in the street or a prepper who buys metals. The % of their cash invested in metals is much higher than the big fellas.

Your average man in the street is more vulnerable to market fluctuation do to the smaller amount of other investments.

And the slump I mentioned is the slump that will come in metal prices when the markets are flooded with metals when countries who are heavily export dependant on exports are exporting a lot less.

Never ever think land is going to go down in price. I will stand you anything that over any two year period, the cost of land will not fall - it is always going to increase, at least for mine and your lifetimes unless we are in such a situation where private contracts cannot be enforced.

Potatoes have had a bigger % increase than gold this last three months.

[Barneyboy]

nice to see you guys getting on so well

[BDG]

(8 January 2013, 22:05)Barneyboy Wrote: nice to see you guys getting on so well

You know me chap, I am such an agreeable sort.

[Barneyboy]

yeah i no thats wot i thought not like you

[grumpy old man]

your both wrong buy guns, bullets and body armour
for when you need to ask others you can do so knowing they will agree
sam colt made men equal so make sure you get the drop first!
lol
i know s13 is right about the pms gold can be traded all over the world that's why gypies have loads and asians (safe money) for when you on your toes lol
i have loads put in a safe hiding paid £1.50 per gram
i'am smiling now