Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[bigpaul]

this is true, there is nothing about the modern world I will miss.

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"The New Dark Ages", that's very close to the truth, at last someone is getting it!

[Straight Shooter]

It has become obvious....reading through the posts .....there are two entrenched views at work here and no. One is a winner....nothing has changed my point of view , putting this one to bed.....with all due respects to ALL views.

[Lightspeed]

I’ve been away a few days, in which time this thread has been rather active.

It’s gone a good deal off track from the scenario I was assessing. Which was consideration of how a specific slice of society ( campers, caravanners and their families = C&Cs) would potentially react to a long term grid down situation, what are their numbers, and where might they choose to flee.

NR, plainly you have analysed this in great depth, and although your thoughts are based on golden horde type threat, they are very relevant to this discussion. Thank you. Interesting that they largely overlap my less thoroughly thought through ideas.

BP you state that these people will all die on the road. This is of course a an over-exaggeration. Some will not make it, that’s for sure. Overall the C&C group will survive far better while travelling than the general population as they have both the equipment and knowledge and self-reliance skills necessary to do so.

Devonian: Sorry about the links not working on OP. I just cut and pasted them in and they got truncated. For the main Pdf report google << Visit Britain FORESIGHT Issue 59 September 2008>> and that should take you to it.

As SS stated, we will all face unexpected visitors. We need to assess how many, where from, how capable, how equipped, what they will be looking for, and most importantly how we are going to deal with them.

Coming back on track:

C&Cs, and their immediate families, represent a sizeable population.

C&Cs are considerably more capable of bugging-out than the population at large

Most C&Cs ( but not all of them) are more self reliant than the population at large

C&Cs are already equipped to be able to survive longer in the outdoor environment than the population at large. This is not just in the form of shelters, but knowledge, skills, ancillary equipment and clothing.

C&Cs have skills and knowledge of
how to use their equipment in an outdoor environment

The group sub-divides into active and lapsed C&Cs. The active C&Cs, in addition to the basic equipment, will possibly have modern sleeping bags, lighting, portable radios, supplies of foods, cooking equipment, camping gas, drinking water containers, sterilising tablets, etc. They will also be running cars that are suitable for load carrying and trailer pulling, which will necessarily be tough. The lapsed C&Cs will probably still have basic shelter type equipment, but ancillaries will be dispersed/ lost and camping specific food stores probably run down. But they will still have knowledge of actual living in the outdoors.

It may be that at the start of a prolonged grid down situation, the C&Cs will use their equipment and knowledge to help their families Bug-In activities.

But being on the whole self-reliant, C&Cs will be more aware of the unfolding dangers. Those who are city based will more quickly identify the need to Bug Out than their non-C&C neighbours.
After decision to bug out, some C&Cs will have left it too late, or will have been caught with insufficient vehicle fuel stocks/ alternative transport to make BO feasible.

Some C&Cs will head off in the direction of safe houses of family and friends.

Some C&Cs will find no friend or family in suitable areas, and their thought of where to BO will turn towards what they see as wild areas that are already known to them.

The statistics I have found, and my own historic thinking, lead me to believe that a significant number of C&Cs will be heading towards Devon and Cornwall as these counties will have greatest draw-factor, being significantly the most popular camping areas in the country.

[Devonian]

Q. How many caravans are there in the UK?
- Over a million! Of the three main types for leisure use, there are:
- 500,000 touring caravans
- 330,000 caravan holiday homes (ie: Statics) and
- 135,000 motorhomes
Souce: National Caravan Council statistics

Not really the Millions and Millions that people are claiming. And how many of them are retired etc etc...

[NorthernRaider]

Morning LS, chaps and plebs
I think some of us MAY be missing the point and that is there is not one single scenario that will or will not happen, it could easily be any and all of them in varying degrees what IS important is that people stop looking at the west country or Wales or Scotland or the Pennines with rose coloured glasses, ALL of these areas are part of one tiny grossly over crowded island infested with millions of people who think they are ENTITLED to come and redistribute YOUR supplies, food, fuel, shelter among the hordes of displaced sheep.

YOU need to at least be AWARE of the possible problems you MAY or COULD face if millions or even only thousands of refugees come pouring out of ALL the cities. EG the West country COULD possibly face people coming from Cardiff, Bristol, Bath, Reading, Swindon, Basingstoke, Southhampton etc as well as Brum and Londonabad.

The west country is indeed the land of plenty with its green and pleasant land and MILLIONS of people know that, millions may not come maybe only a few hundred thousand but even that number will overwhelm the region's resources in days.

As gorgeous as it is ( and it is) its on a peninsula, its to close to London and the massively over crowded south west. At least west Wales has a few natural barriers as does Scotland, plus space to try and reduce the influx. The NW will see people from Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford and all the other northern areas pour into the Lakes, Dales and Moors. Up here the Middlesbrough, York, Sunderland, Newcastle, Gateshead, Carlisle populations will pour into the national parks, moors and dales. All worst case scenarios of course and all utterly hypothetical but you MUST consider them in your plans.

Where I think some folks seriously underestimated the power of fear and desperation is when it comes to comments about turning them away, I don't think you have the numbers or resources to stop large numbers of desperate people arriving by car, boat, plane, bike, motorcycle, golf cart, pony, quad, foot, canoe, dinghy, coastal and riverine vessels. Hell even with the English channel , French and British border agents we cannot stop more unwashed herds of migrants from getting here.

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Q. How many caravans are there in the UK?
- Over a million! Of the three main types for leisure use, there are:
- 500,000 touring caravans
- 330,000 caravan holiday homes (ie: Statics) and
- 135,000 motorhomes
Souce: National Caravan Council statistics

Aye the the bastards all break down on the A1m and A19 every summer, they should be banned along with cyclists

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LS Scribed "The statistics I have found, and my own historic thinking, lead me to believe that a significant number of C&Cs will be heading towards Devon and Cornwall as these counties will have greatest draw-factor, being significantly the most popular camping areas in the country. "

Yup it has a warm, pleasant and very pleasing environment that attracts millions of holiday makers, second home buyers, semi retired over paid south easterners etc every year it is only natural that in a crisis many people will elected to head to that region in the belief they can disappear into the rambling rolling countryside. Its geography and climate is why it is so attractive to such huge numbers of people compared to the Anglian region which though green pleasant and nice is pretty flat, not as easy to get lost in cos of the many fewer roads, it faces the north sea, it will still attract many folks from London as well as the east midlands but has much less favourable topography unless you intend to live on a boat.

There may be only a few hundred miles tween the west country and Lake district nat park but the climate and topography is much less gentle or forgiving, the same can be said of much of Wales. Theres a good likelihood the South Downs and New Forest will attract quite a few displaced persons but neither area has the capacity the WC does.

My own area in the NE has much going for it but it still does not have the climate and topography of the WC, BUT it is MUCH further away from the primary and secondary cities that are likely to be the main threat to us. and I still have to contend with the three coastal conurbations or Tyne, Wear and Teesside. But there is more room for manoeuvre, property is less than half of the cost of London and many SW areas, but its offset by our greater altitude and more barren rural spaces.

[Devonian]

(25 March 2014, 10:40)NorthernRaider Wrote: Morning LS, chaps and plebs
I think some of us MAY be missing the point and that is there is not one single scenario that will or will not happen, it could easily be any and all of them in varying degrees what IS important is that people stop looking at the west country or Wales or Scotland or the Pennines with rose coloured glasses, ALL of these areas are part of one tiny grossly over crowded island infested with millions of people who think they are ENTITLED to come and redistribute YOUR supplies, food, fuel, shelter among the hordes of displaced sheep.

YOU need to at least be AWARE of the possible problems you MAY or COULD face if millions or even only thousands of refugees come pouring out of ALL the cities. EG the West country COULD possibly face people coming from Cardiff, Bristol, Bath, Reading, Swindon, Basingstoke, Southhampton etc as well as Brum and Londonabad.

The west country is indeed the land of plenty with its green and pleasant land and MILLIONS of people know that, millions may not come maybe only a few hundred thousand but even that number will overwhelm the region's resources in days.

As gorgeous as it is ( and it is) its on a peninsula, its to close to London and the massively over crowded south west. At least west Wales has a few natural barriers as does Scotland, plus space to try and reduce the influx. The NW will see people from Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford and all the other northern areas pour into the Lakes, Dales and Moors. Up here the Middlesbrough, York, Sunderland, Newcastle, Gateshead, Carlisle populations will pour into the national parks, moors and dales. All worst case scenarios of course and all utterly hypothetical but you MUST consider them in your plans.

Where I think some folks seriously underestimated the power of fear and desperation is when it comes to comments about turning them away, I don't think you have the numbers or resources to stop large numbers of desperate people arriving by car, boat, plane, bike, motorcycle, golf cart, pony, quad, foot, canoe, dinghy, coastal and riverine vessels. Hell even with the English channel , French and British border agents we cannot stop more unwashed herds of migrants from getting here.

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Q. How many caravans are there in the UK?
- Over a million! Of the three main types for leisure use, there are:
- 500,000 touring caravans
- 330,000 caravan holiday homes (ie: Statics) and
- 135,000 motorhomes
Souce: National Caravan Council statistics

Aye the the bastards all break down on the A1m and A19 every summer, they should be banned along with cyclists

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LS Scribed "The statistics I have found, and my own historic thinking, lead me to believe that a significant number of C&Cs will be heading towards Devon and Cornwall as these counties will have greatest draw-factor, being significantly the most popular camping areas in the country. "

Yup it has a warm, pleasant and very pleasing environment that attracts millions of holiday makers, second home buyers, semi retired over paid south easterners etc every year it is only natural that in a crisis many people will elected to head to that region in the belief they can disappear into the rambling rolling countryside. Its geography and climate is why it is so attractive to such huge numbers of people compared to the Anglian region which though green pleasant and nice is pretty flat, not as easy to get lost in cos of the many fewer roads, it faces the north sea, it will still attract many folks from London as well as the east midlands but has much less favourable topography unless you intend to live on a boat.

There may be only a few hundred miles tween the west country and Lake district nat park but the climate and topography is much less gentle or forgiving, the same can be said of much of Wales. Theres a good likelihood the South Downs and New Forest will attract quite a few displaced persons but neither area has the capacity the WC does.

My own area in the NE has much going for it but it still does not have the climate and topography of the WC, BUT it is MUCH further away from the primary and secondary cities that are likely to be the main threat to us. and I still have to contend with the three coastal conurbations or Tyne, Wear and Teesside. But there is more room for manoeuvre, property is less than half of the cost of London and many SW areas, but its offset by our greater altitude and more barren rural spaces.

This Pleb agrees with most of what you have stated there and this is the first time you have actually acknowledged that people will also flood into "other areas" as well, which is exactly what BP and myself keep saying.

We know there will be an influx to the SW, but we also know that we will not be the only area affected which is what everyone else keeps banging on about.

You also seem to forget about about the teeny tiny areas known as Dartmoor; Exmoor; and Bodmin Moor which make up a significant proportion of the SW and which are not exactly warm and hospitable areas, even in Summer, so that actually reduces capacity in the SW further. But those geographic areas also mean that access to the region can be controlled and blocked off 'very' easily.

[NorthernRaider]

"You also seem to forget about about the teeny tiny areas known as Dartmoor; Exmoor; and Bodmin Moor which make up a significant proportion of the SW and which are not exactly warm and hospitable areas, even in Summer, so that actually reduces capacity in the SW further. But those geographic areas also mean that access to the region can be controlled and blocked off 'very' easily."

But they are still covered in holiday, pony trekking centres, outward bound centres farms, old military bases which WILL attract people and the climate of those areas is still far milder in general because of their closeness to the sea and gulf stream compared with the Peak, Lakes, Moors and Dales national parks.
But that still does not remove the west Countries PROXIMITY to many large urban areas.
I 100% absolutely disagree with you about it being easy to block off and manage, unless you are going to put a line of people from Bristol right cross country, 24/7 to South Hampton there is no way you can even come close to securing the area. You probably could stop cars and trucks but theres no way on earth you can stop huge numbers of people walking in.

However I absolute 100% still encourage anyone planning on relocating to be more off grid, secure, prepped etc to go to the South West, there is nothing of interest or use in the north east or north west.

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Doing a quick Google there are at least 32,000 boat licences in the UK, not including fishing boats, commercial vessels, jet skis, hover craft etc.
According to Yachting and boating world there are 88,000 commercial vessels not including leisure craft ( FYI LS there are 60,000 licenced radio users).

According to the LAA there are over 8,000 pilot, amateur builder, vintage aircraft owner and enthusiast members, providing sector-leading consultation and lobbying on UK and European aviation regulatory matters. With over 2,500 operational aircraft, including microlights and autogyros, and another 1,700 aircraft under construction, our technical competence is second to none, worldwide.

According to Motorcycle there are
◦There are about 1 million UK licenced (taxed) motorcycles on the road each year. This implies 1.3 million active riders (given DVLA's assumption of 15-25% road fund licence evasion). But some of us have more than one bike taxed, which makes it a bit less.
◦So its somewhere around 1.1 - 1.2 million active riders in the UK.
(There are 5 million full motorcycle licence holders, so 4/5ths are inactive.)
(There are 525,000 female full motorcycle licence holders.)
◦Each year, there are about 139,000 new motorcycle registrations. So more than 1 in 10 of us bought a new bike.

According to Bike Radar.com
There are more cycles sold in the UK than cars. according to the DfT, in 2009 there were 3.5m bikes sold in the UK compared to 2.9m vehicles. With 1.9m of vehicle sales being cars. (source BBC news)

I cannot find accurate figures for competent 4x4 vehicles in the UK but the searches say sales of proper off road capable vehicles are at an all time high.

I cannot find accurate figures for Quad or Mule type vehicles but again sales in the UK are thriving.

I cannot find accurate visitor numbers for sw that are less than 10 years old.

According to Wiki there are 123,000 ramblers in the UK

The crow flying from Bristol to Southampton is nigh on 76 miles of mainly open rural undulating lush countryside passing through places like Somerset, Dorset, Wiltshire with Wiltshire being popular with the military for hiding huge numbers of troops in on exercise.

Good luck with keeping everyone out.

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Hmmm wifey just pointed an interesting doofah, what if TSHTF during the tourist season and / or whilst Glastonbury was on ? that could leave the summer season double the normal number of people in the area being STUCK there?

Still the WC is pretty and gorgeous and there's massive numbers of preppers and bushcrafters and hippies and offgridders living there they cannot ALL be wrong can they?.

[Devonian]

With the number of people prepared to walk in, it wouldn't be so much of a problem and they could probably be absorbed by the like of Bristol; Taunton; Exeter etc without too much problem.

Buts lets look at another scenario, there has been an event affecting London and the South East and for some reason, everyone is trying to leave the area.

The M5 and A303 (and side roads) are completely gridlocked back as far as the M25 and nothing (vehicular) is moving in either direction.

So you were one of the earliest out and you are stuck with your family (Wife, 2 Young Children, Dog and possessions in a couple of suitcases) in your car halfway between Swindon and Bristol.

So does Joe Average and his unprepared family:

1. Stay with the car and wait to be rescued
2. Head back on foot along the motorway to Swindon with his family etc
3. Head on foot along the motorway towards Bristol with his family etc
4. Leave the road and head north towards Cirencester or Gloucester (or any area of open countryside in that direction)
5. Leave the road and head south towards Bath or Southampton (or any area of open countryside in that direction)
6. Think about where his nearest family/friends (outside of the danger area) are and then head towards them
7. Head towards the South West by foot along the Motorway (several days walk)
8. Head towards the South West by foot across country (several days walk)

[Midnitemo]

there will be takers for all those options in that scenario , so you'll have quitters who will sit tight too long in the jam and become victims of thieves and looters(i think that this is your worst choice)then some will de camp to the surrounding countryside, some will head of in the general direction of the south west , some will have a change of heart and turn around and head for home , and some will think following the bulk a bad idea and scatter off in all directions...a lot of people snarled up in this jam will have been heading for wales aswell.

[NorthernRaider]

So does Joe Average and his unprepared family:

1. Stay with the car and wait to be rescued
2. Head back on foot along the motorway to Swindon with his family etc
3. Head on foot along the motorway towards Bristol with his family etc
4. Leave the road and head north towards Cirencester or Gloucester (or any area of open countryside in that direction)
5. Leave the road and head south towards Bath or Southampton (or any area of open countryside in that direction)
6. Think about where his nearest family/friends (outside of the danger area) are and then head towards them
7. Head towards the South West by foot along the Motorway (several days walk)
8. Head towards the South West by foot across country (several days walk)

The answer has to be ANY and ALL of the above. I don't think its the multiple and myriad options that people will take that the preppers down south have to consider because ALL are equal and valid depending on the situation. The problem is the age old one of simple distance and numbers plus topography.

1 The Greater London Built-up or Urban Area had a population of 9,787,426 and occupied an area of 1,737.9 square kilometres (671.0 sq mi) at the time of the 2011 census.
2 428,000 in Bristol
3 253,000 in Southhampton
4 145,700 in Reading
Then add the dozens and dozens of large towns that serve London like Guilford, etc The population of the SE EXCLUDING London is another 8 million people.

So nearly 18 million people right next door to the south west not including those possibly heading south from the midlands in any given scenario, regardless of any situation you or I or any of the other thinkers can come up with the unfortunate fact is the massive populations of the SE are right next door to the SW.

Up here as a simple comparison (only as a comparison not a boasting or competition ) this entire region including its big cities only has 2,597,000 (2011) people nearly all on the coast with the NY moors to the south (empty) Yorkshire dales to the SW ( fairly low population), Durham dales to the east (empty) with the equally low population of the Lakes heading west after that, heading north is Northumberland (90% empty) then the Scottish borders ( very low pops).

The sad unfortunate fact is that regardless of its wonderful climate, geography, people, resources etc etc etc, its sat right next door to the south east and its massive numbers of people.

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And again I absolutely encourage anyone thinking of bugging in permenantly to move to the south west, there is nothing of value or use up here its a barren wilderness.

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From Wiki to highlight the issue
Region Population
- South East 8,634,750
- Greater London 8,173,941
- North West 7,052,177
- East 5,846,965
- West Midlands 5,601,847
- South West 5,288,935
- Yorkshire / Humber 5,283,733
- East Midlands 4,533,222
- North East 2,596,886