what if this was after TSHTF?

[bigpaul]

yeah, pity your 600 miles away, Dev's 20 miles up the road I see your point, might not be wise to rely on that old bridge across the river still being there WTSHTF if that's the way to your BOL eh??

[Devonian]

Rain water, flood water and wind does not generally damage roads.

Most road damage is caused by:

- HGV's turning
- Burst Water Pipes
- Sub-zero temperatures (after wet weather)
- Water scour (large volumes of fast moving water)

(31 October 2014, 17:43)NorthernRaider Wrote: Dev, just thinking about your comments above, some things last, some don't, up here when they built the Tees flyover on the A19 within 7 years it was falling apart, some columns sinking, others cracked and all the bearings to roadbed sat on failed completely meaning the deck could have collapsed within only a few years. And the new entrance road to teesside park has to be replared almost every year as it keeping subsiding badly.
Both sit only a mile from the Victorian built transporter bridge and newport Bridges which only need a lick of paint

Yes totally agree with this and this is my point, any problems with infrastructure failing will generally be localised (ie: the entrance to the park, but not the approach roads or the estate itself), you will not see "widespread or complete failure" and disintegration of roads and bridges.

(31 October 2014, 18:35)NorthernRaider Wrote: Dev what I think you MAY be missing is not the vulnerability of solid great stone, concrete or steel structures standing in magnificent isolation, but the roads and rail tracks that serve them, thats the weak point, roads and rail track beds are lined by fields, trees, buildings, foliage, they are often with drains, sewers, storm drains, cable ducting etc under them. they face a continuous onslaught from play overgrowth ( Think how destructive IVY is at ruining mortar and brickwork) flooding, leaf fall, land slip, erosion, etc etc etc The bridges may last a 1000 years but without maintenance and regular traffic the roads and trackbeds will disappear.

The bigger the structure, the more issues it is likely to have as it will not be self draining.

But the vast majority of ALL bridges are small single/double arches which are totally self draining due to their arched nature. Hence why they still standing after 100's of years.

As for roads, once you get out of the Cities, Towns and Villages etc, then there normally aren't any surface water drains, rain water does what it does, hits the road, and either drains off the sides of the road, or it runs along the side of the road (due to the road camber which has been around in all roads since Roman times) until it drains away - worst case scenario is the road is flooded for a couple of weeks, but that will not damage the road - as it didn't on the Somerset levels.

(31 October 2014, 18:47)bigpaul Wrote: with no inclement weather and no storms many of these bridges MIGHT last for a long time but life isn't like that, we have lots of Atlantic storms ex hurricanes downgraded which always seem to come from a south westerly direction so hit the West of the country first every time, I am thinking of something like the flooding at Boscastle and the trees and debris that TOOK OUT that old bridge along with all the cars from the car park. then there was the flooding in Somerset and on the Thames, subsidence in Dorset(killed 2 people in a road tunnel) and the train line being washed out at Dawlish and flooded at Cowley Bridge. sure the infrastructure COULD stand for ages but it wont cos its things like weather and storms more than traffic or lack of it which will do the damage and like I said in my OP if this is AFTER TSHTF they wont be repaired so how will that alter your plans?

Boscastle and Lynton/Lynmouth before it are isolated events, yes if it affects you directly, it is catastrophic, but how many people were affected by each event 50, 60?? out of how many million....

The Somerset Levels have always flooded, you've said as much yourself in the past, the subsidence (Cliffs) in Dorset, how many houses were affected?? 2 or 3??

So yes ALL of these things will happen after TSHTF (as they do already), but if you don't live in a flood plain; in a valley; or right next to the coast, then it's not really going to have any direct impact on you.

I know that the point you trying to get across is that things will be 100 times worse after the SHTF because suddenly the local councils will not be maintaining assets and infrastructure, but the truth is that the councils already operative a reactive programme of maintenance, rather than a proactive, so certainly in the next 20 years or so, it is unlikely "if" a major SHTF event happened tomorrow and total societal collapse followed, that we would see any real increase in the number of failure compared with what already happens.

Also I can assure that a lots of the bridge repairs that DCC are attributing the last winter storms, are actually defectives which have been known about for many many many years, but they haven't had the budget to do the works and are using the storms to try and get extra government funding.

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(31 October 2014, 18:47)NorthernRaider Wrote: I like this type of post, Mutual brainstorming to work out various potential outcomes really helps in making choices about Bug out Routes and even the suitability of structures in the long term

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Wish we three were all sat in the pub right now to work out as many scenarios as possible, this is better than chess

Yes, it's good to get the old grey matter working

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OK, here's another way of looking at it, the following You Tube video's are of completely unmaintained roads in Devon, they will not have seen a JCB or manhole cover during their entire existence.......





But as you can see, they are completely passable (with a 4x4)

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[NorthernRaider]

One thing is sure once a societal collapse occurs for what ever reason it won't take long for journey times to get longer and longer and routes more circuitous . Those lanes in the video are only really going to be useful to horses, bikes and pedestrians.

[bigpaul]

have it your own way Dev, I can see your not convinced, however I believe everything I have written to be true.otherwise I wouldn't have written it. a good long cold wet winter post SHTF will damage enough of the road and other structure to have an impact on travel of any kind, a lot of the roads and bridges in the rural areas are nothing more than cart tracks with a bit of tar thrown on the top and the bridges are pack horse bridges(similar to the one at Gunnislake which I know well) and are not made for todays traffic. I wouldn't care to use the major roads post SHTF they'll either be full of abandoned vehicles, used by the Military/TPTB(if they still exist) or will be a good place for an ambush after societal collapse.

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it wont take long for the bushes at each side of the "green" lanes to grow together and completely shut off any access, they are only open now because someone cuts them back regularly...probably the local farmer or landowner I presume.

[Devonian]

(31 October 2014, 23:48)NorthernRaider Wrote: One thing is sure once a societal collapse occurs for what ever reason it won't take long for journey times to get longer and longer and routes more circuitous .

Agreed, plus the abandoned vehicles and improvised road blocks will only make things worse.

(31 October 2014, 23:48)NorthernRaider Wrote: Those lanes in the video are only really going to be useful to horses, bikes and pedestrians.

Again agreed, but the point was to illustrate that roads and tracks etc, do not simply vanish under 3 feet of soil and become unusable after 5, 10, 15 years etc..... the lanes in those videos have been abandoned by the local authorities for decades, yes we regularly have to remove fallen trees etc in order to pass through, but the tracks/lanes remain useable. Roads should fair even better as they are generally built over these sorts of tracks in the first place.

The idea that every bridge will suddenly fail and collapse within a few years and that every road will become impassable is simply ridiculous.

[bigpaul]

have it your own way Dev, I have seen enough road closures, road erosions and bridge repairs since the winter of 2012/13 to know that it wont take long for things to change, nature will not stand still just because you think it will, I have had enough allotments in my life to know that it only takes a few days less than a week for weeds to appear and start taking over, post SHTF this will happen with a vengeance and its all downhill from there.

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isn't there a saying something like "nature abhors a vacuum" or some such ???

[NorthernRaider]

I find the occasional footage from Pripyat fascinating and also that Japanese Island when film is occasionally released, the way nature reclaims land in such short periods of time is amazing, just be glad japanese knotweed is not endemic to the UK that stuff pushes through solid concrete. But I was truly fascinated to see how quickly trees started to grow almost everywhere.

Anyone remember what that creeping carpet type wed is with the small yellow flowers, it covers up the cycle tracks around here every year with a good inch of foliage?

[bigpaul]

err "Japanese Knotweed is not endemic in the UK"?? its here in abundance NR along with Himalayan Balsam, both are taking over the countryside at a fast rate, both are I think notifyable plants and landowners can be fined for not trying to remove them, I say "try" because they are the devil to remove. they are both endemic to North Devon and spread along the river valleys.

[Devonian]

(1 November 2014, 12:04)NorthernRaider Wrote: I find the occasional footage from Pripyat fascinating and also that Japanese Island when film is occasionally released, the way nature reclaims land in such short periods of time is amazing, just be glad japanese knotweed is not endemic to the UK that stuff pushes through solid concrete. But I was truly fascinated to see how quickly trees started to grow almost everywhere.

Anyone remember what that creeping carpet type wed is with the small yellow flowers, it covers up the cycle tracks around here every year with a good inch of foliage?

Yes Pripyat is a great example as is Varosha in Cyprus. Both show how despite being abandoned, the infrastructure remains intact. Even the temporary fairground/big wheel remain in place and haven't disappeared into a pile of dust just yet.

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(1 November 2014, 12:14)bigpaul Wrote: err "Japanese Knotweed is not endemic in the UK"?? its here in abundance NR along with Himalayan Balsam, both are taking over the countryside at a fast rate, both are I think notifyable plants and landowners can be fined for not trying to remove them, I say "try" because they are the devil to remove. they are both endemic to North Devon and spread along the river valleys.

It is a problem, but it's not endemic, and the South Wales Valleys for example have a far far bigger problem with it than we do in ND.

[bigpaul]

(1 November 2014, 12:16)Devonian Wrote: It is a problem, but it's not endemic, and the South Wales Valleys for example have a far far bigger problem with it than we do in ND.

you need to get out more Devonian, its all over the place in North Devon, its on the Taw, Exe, Torridge, Okement, Teign, anywhere where there is a river it can usually be found. its a major pest.

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I suppose we see more of it because we are out more than most people and we use the back roads and we come across it on our travels.

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its also on the river Brue all around Glastonbury, and also near Moretonhamstead and Chagford.