Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[NorthernRaider]

Awe its just a great big Yokel fest Mind you I do admire those two great west country political and social icons who are the pinnacle of West Country evolution Jethro and Pam Ayres

[bigpaul]

I think you'll find Pam Ayres lives in the Cotswolds, and Jethro("what happened was") a true Cornishman actually lives in Devon not far from me.

[Devonian]

And don't forget the Wurzels lol!!

They've been out doing their bit for the flood victims

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-26672943

[NorthernRaider]

somerset news
The floods are coming, the floods are coming, rape the men, kill the women but save the mangle worzels

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Reporter Erm don't you mean kill the men and rape the women ??

Yokel " Well m'dear you do it your way and we will do it ours

[bigpaul]

exactly!! and if you are "in-differently" you are doing it wrong!!

[Midnitemo]

love the wurzels although you do get a bit short changed when you see them now as they only play for about 45 min's but there support act last year at the Fleece were a band called the skimmity hitchers...cyderdelia at its best check em out on you tube

[BeardyMan]

(21 March 2014, 06:13)Lightspeed Wrote: SCENARIO: The S has hit the fan. The grid has failed. Petrol /diesel fuel deliveries to commercial filling stations have ceased. Quickly food supply chains break down, water and sewerage pumping slow / stop. After a week city food sources have dried up and water is getting harder to find. Those with the wherewithal to get out will do so, but they will be a small minority.

Families who enjoy ( or in the past enjoyed) camping and caravanning type holidays will have mind-set, skills, equipment, and the self-reliance to allow them to move. They will probably favour evacuating to regions that they know to have favourable climate, perceived plentiful food and water supplies, and with which they are somewhat familiar. Simplistically, this equates to rose tinted memories of past summer holidays, so this is where they may well head out for. (source: self-reference. This describes my own family’s pre-prepping situation and mind-set)

There are at least 11 million tents, caravans and mobile homes in semi-regular use in the UK. Assuming that each unit will have an average body count of 3, that’s a potential of 33million refugees! Further assuming that only 10% of those that can actually do that reduces the refugee count to 3.3 million (although Pareto principle would give a value of double this, let’s hope he’s wrong this time….) ( Source: http://www.visitbritain.org/Images/Fores...-14790.pdf‎ + http://www.thencc.org.uk/our_industry/statistics.aspx)

Most popular caravanning and camping region in UK is the South West with over 33% of all touring caravan and camping holidays are to this region. ( source: extrapolated from ( Source: http://www.visitbritain.org/Images/Fores...14790.pdf‎)

This scenario could mean 1 million or more refugees descending on Devon and Cornwall, who’s combined current population is around 1.6 million ( 2011 Census). And how many more will come, returning to family and friends with homes in the region?

To put this in context during ww2 Devon’s absorbed approx. 186,000 new arrivals, of which 85,000 were the US Army. This number is dwarfed by the potential numbers of refugees calculated in this scenario. (source: https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bits...S_Vol1.pdf page 18)

Plausible or misguided?

It all depends on where people are based initially. You're not going to get
a family loading up their caravan and trekking from up north to Devon and Cornwall, even if they did make the trip in good times and have fond memories.

[bigpaul]

unless its a life threatening event like nuclear war, a toxic spill or a large fire I don't see people leaving their homes at all. in say an economic/financial collapse people will sit tight and see what happens and expect the govt to come and save them, it will take some time before they realise help isn't coming. and most people if and when they do leave are more likely to head for relatives places than wander aimlessly looking for a "safe" place to stop, like some caravan or camping site.

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and on the subject of caravans, just look at any major road, say M5,A303 or the A38 in the summer and you will see the tailbacks caused by caravans and campers.

[Midnitemo]

I can think of an occasion when the southern most parts of the southwest would be the only place to make for....when there has been a nuclear or chemical release(accidental or intentional)obviously because of the prevailing winds and the nearest plant being hinckley point and the nearest potential source of contamination being devonport dockyard....far south west...well Cornwall really

[bigpaul]

the PREVAILING wind is FROM the south west so any pollution goes away from the area, Hinckley Point is in Somerset and we have Exmoor and the Quantocks in the way and as I said the wind goes AWAY from the south west. actually Hinckley Point C is why we moved away from Somerset.