TIME SCALE TO TSHTF

[Metroyeti]

Doesnt help that the media covers everything up and makes things sound better than they are. Polotitians are ostridgess with there heads in the sand.

[Straight Shooter]

its the people above goverments that runs the show ... half the polys wound,nt get it anyway their so far up their own arse the other half are on the payroll just look at blair and now the latest gordo taking over from king...... do me a favour

[HunterNurturer]

For me the EU collapse has to be the biggest immediate threat, alongside the UK economy having contracted for the 3rd quarter in a row again, which by definition puts us in "another" recession. I'd put a timescale on this coming to a head within the next 12 months. Greece will leave the EU, causing investors to lose faith in the EU's ability to prop up it's other failing countries. Everyone who lent money to Greece will take a big hit, which could see a nasty effect on interest rates. Cue more protests/riots, Spain inevitably needing a bailout which will come from the banks who create more money out of thin air, lend it to the EU and add some more debt to the EU's 10trillion Euro tally and some good ol inflation. These events alone could have devastating effects on the markets, and they will go batshit crazy when the Euro breaks up.

I personally don't see any kind of nuclear war being a real threat. The old "mutually assured destruction" thing, it just doesn't make sense for any country to make the first move IMO. Terrorists however is a different matter...

I'm also taking notice of all the "worst X in 50 years" type weather. UK's worst summer in 100 years, we just had the worst september storm in 30 years, America just had the worst draught in x years, as did Russia. We recently had the worst winter in 70 odd years.
It mostly worries me the effect this has on agriculture and ergo our food prices and availability, plus the UK's pathetic inability to deal with a little snow.

[BeardyMan]

Israel will attack Iran. Everyone else will join in. No oil. Exploding food prices. We're all up that smelly brown creek with no means of propulsion.

Timescale? The way it's going I'm thinking it may be any time after November (the 'Mericuns won't do anything until their Dear Leader is secure for another term)

[Skean Dhude]

It just has to be economic collapse at the moment. However, that then quickly moves on to war and that can escalate quickly. The issue is that there are a lot of people on both sides that believe a nuclear war is survivable. Partly due to our namby pamby attitude of reducing our firepower so our SSBNs are not full loaded. Luckily the yanks make up for that but it weakens our overall standing and makes us look weak.

My biggest fear though is a pandemic of some sort. Invisible killers.

[bigpaul]

i think it will be the collapse of the EU, financial and economic breakdown, followed by riots, arson and the general collapse of society.

[Paul]

(1 October 2012, 11:49)bigpaul Wrote: i think it will be the collapse of the EU, financial and economic breakdown, followed by riots, arson and the general collapse of society.

Problem is me is when and what will be the indicators?
Watching a TV today and business says we're in the poo.
Next screen an economist saying we're bumping along in the poo
Next screen, stocks and shares are up
Next screen jobless total up, but more jobs are available i.e 12000 vacancies last month.
Next screen some government Burke says things are looking better.
No wonder I'm confused.

[Hrusai]

personally me views differ depending whether we're talking about msot likely threats to come to fruition or wether its the ones likely to happen soon, also various others that wouldnt be an apocalypse scenario but would change the world we live in greatly

so yes economic woes are deepening, food shortages are beginning to happen too, climate change is beginning to have more of an impact, tensions between many nations, all these variables will inevitably come together at some point, as to the degree of apocalypsiness that will happen, who knows, deal with it when it comes, just prep for as wide a variety of situations as you possibly can, most preps are universal to any potential SHTF situation so things like food water, hunting and foraging, growing crops, rearing lifestock, making fire etc etc and most of all simple knowledge will mean you can see through most things, a few specialist items like a respirator system will come in very handy in a variety of events, from nuclear to biological

threats are everywhere, potential for collapse is everywhere, i prefer to be optimistic and hope it doesnt, but if it does ill be ready

[HunterNurturer]

(1 October 2012, 12:49)Paul Wrote:

(1 October 2012, 11:49)bigpaul Wrote: i think it will be the collapse of the EU, financial and economic breakdown, followed by riots, arson and the general collapse of society.

Problem is me is when and what will be the indicators?
Watching a TV today and business says we're in the poo.
Next screen an economist saying we're bumping along in the poo
Next screen, stocks and shares are up
Next screen jobless total up, but more jobs are available i.e 12000 vacancies last month.
Next screen some government Burke says things are looking better.
No wonder I'm confused.

Main indicators to look out for in the coming months -

Greece failing to meet their austerity goals
Spain requesting a bailout (likely to happen within days)
EU ESI (Economic sentiment indicator) continuing to decline
Greece dropping out of the EU
Any sign whatsoever of Germany's economy faultering (ie. decrease in exports or employment) - this could be huge, as Germany's strength and investors confidence in them is the only thing propping the EU up right now.

From a non-economic perspective -

Israel mobilising troops on a larger than normal scale
Further sabotaging of Iran's critical facilities by special forces
Iran's economy continuing to buckle under the pressure of sanctions
Any kind of "Iranian revolution", which will no doubt be backed by US guns and funds. This is one of america's favourite tactics for dealing with non-cooperative governments. Much more deniable than bombs.
US mobilising troops around Iran on a larger than normal scale (happening right now)
Any attacks on US Navy in the Straight of Hormuz. Maybe even the US staging an attack and blaming it on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard as a pretense for war... wouldn't be the first time...

[cryingfreeman]

(1 October 2012, 09:31)Skean Dhude Wrote: It just has to be economic collapse at the moment. However, that then quickly moves on to war and that can escalate quickly. The issue is that there are a lot of people on both sides that believe a nuclear war is survivable. Partly due to our namby pamby attitude of reducing our firepower so our SSBNs are not full loaded. Luckily the yanks make up for that but it weakens our overall standing and makes us look weak.

My biggest fear though is a pandemic of some sort. Invisible killers.

Yes, this is now becoming apparent. MAD may not actually be believed in by some of the powers that be, just as there is a school of thought that suggests there would be no such thing as a "nuclear winter". Consider this: there have been 2053 (admitted, that is) nuclear detonations since WW2. Is the earth experiencing a nuclear winter? Is it a radioactive shipwreck? Noooooo.... See this slow-to-get-going-but-eventually-quite-stunning time lapse animation of all 2053 nuclear explosions since 1945:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY