a list of 2013 predictions

[cryingfreeman]

Thanks. I'm working it up into a book on nuclear war in the UK. The world has many more potential nuclear flashpoints now than ever was the case during the Cold War, yet everyone thinks we're in the clear now because of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[ObongoPox]

(3 January 2013, 22:38)cryingfreeman Wrote: Thanks. I'm working it up into a book on nuclear war in the UK. The world has many more potential nuclear flashpoints now than ever was the case during the Cold War, yet everyone thinks we're in the clear now because of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Going by the reviews that Rosenbaum book looks like serious journalism.Not crack-pot at all.I know you gave mid-Wales the all clear,but I'd love a bit more in depth info specifically on debatable and definite targets throughout Wales.Would flora and fauna survive a)the initial gamma fall-out b)any subsequent northern hemisphere nuclear winter?

[cryingfreeman]

I'm still working on the book (and my treatment of Wales and its current and potential targets) but everything has been held up by (a) a road trip to the continent in November, via Wales, oddly enough and (b) moving from the village I was living in to a house in the countryside far from the madding crowd in December!

The Welsh mountains, in particular the rugged northern ones, are as good as it can get south of the Highlands for initial radiation blocking in the UK in the event of a nuclear strike. Fallout however may arrive should Anglesey's bases (secondary targets) be struck and if the weather is the usual Atlantic zonal stuff (i.e. west-to-east air masses), or if we get an easterly carrying the denser fallout concentrations from primary strikes to the east of Wales. That all said, we're not talking Cold War proportions of fallout, due to the lower yields of modern precision weapons. As for a nuclear winter, my own view is that the powers that be themselves don't believe such a phenomenon is possible and that it was a propaganda relic of the old Cold War. Don't forget, thousands of nuclear test detonations since WW2 and no sign of a nuclear winter... Flora and fauna would be damaged to varying degrees but it wouldn't be wiped out unless we're hit with a cobalt-salted weapon (super-radioactive device designed to pollute and kill by sickness). Such devices are supposedly too dangerous for use because of hemispheric damage, i.e., the attacker would ultimately poison themselves.

[Scythe13]

I think we are a few years from WW3. But some of the items on the list are pretty damn likely in the next few months.

[ObongoPox]

Uninhabited coastline of NW Sutherland,how would that fare I wonder?Look forward to purchasing a copy of your book!!!

[Bucket]

(5 January 2013, 07:54)ObongoPox Wrote: Uninhabited coastline of NW Sutherland,how would that fare I wonder?Look forward to purchasing a copy of your book!!!

Well, you've got the Dounreay tip and it's glow in the dark sheep (for Aberdonian nightcalls) and Lossie/ Kinloss to the SW, Fort George/Cameron Barracks/ Inversneckie to the South. So lots of low level targets (maybe third/fourth wave) but which point we're stuffed anyway, so if the wind was blowing north it would be a problem, especially with rainy fallout (grey snow).

Apart from that you're OK

[ObongoPox]

(5 January 2013, 18:40)Bucket Wrote:

(5 January 2013, 07:54)ObongoPox Wrote: Uninhabited coastline of NW Sutherland,how would that fare I wonder?Look forward to purchasing a copy of your book!!!

Well, you've got the Dounreay tip and it's glow in the dark sheep (for Aberdonian nightcalls) and Lossie/ Kinloss to the SW, Fort George/Cameron Barracks/ Inversneckie to the South. So lots of low level targets (maybe third/fourth wave) but which point we're stuffed anyway, so if the wind was blowing north it would be a problem, especially with rainy fallout (grey snow).

Apart from that you're OK

Even if I only live long enough to witness a large-scale suburban clown die-back I'll be laughing like a drain.

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UK-wide that's equivalent to 2 million(or more)Columbines whooohaaaaa!!!

[cryingfreeman]

Sutherland... Well, Dounreay is no longer active (supposedly). But there are the SSBN Z-Berths in Loch Ewe which, while probably a secondary target, might be deemed primary by an attacker. You'd also be downwind (based on prevailing patterns) of 2 primaries, namely, St Kilda and Benbecula, both part of our critical north Atlantic early warning detection system. That all said, I know a guy from NI who moved to Tongue for the sublime isolation and hiking / kayaking.

A better area for the WW3 survivalist might be Lochaber, particularly to the west of Fort William (e.g. Knoydart). I know I had been looking at building sites in that area in the past year or so, but am now looking at the Alps instead. That said, if a global bio-plague erupted, Knoydart might be a great place to sit it out!

[BDG]

The only none ally who could realistically launch such a strike and not have most of their stuff shot down is Russia. Russia is not going to attack us.

Biggest threat nuke wise is in the UK is a bomb that comes in on a ship, but who ever could do that would much rather nuke America. Anyone want to bet £50,000 with me, I take the position the UK will not be attacked with nuclear weapons in the next 30 years.

If you want to go higher, we can, just do not want to scare any one off playing for real money - £50K will buy little more than a banger for running around in in 30 years. I am more than happy to play for £2.27M at the moment.

[Highlander]

(5 January 2013, 23:21)cryingfreeman Wrote: A better area for the WW3 survivalist might be Lochaber, particularly to the west of Fort William (e.g. Knoydart). I know I had been looking at building sites in that area in the past year or so, but am now looking at the Alps instead. That said, if a global bio-plague erupted, Knoydart might be a great place to sit it out!

Now that is very good news,..living as I do 50 miles due west of Fort William in the heart of Lochaber