Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[Midnitemo]

Her team is called "the south west" not west country, they play in inter regional competition's against teams like "london and the Home counties" the east midlands" the north west"....if she lived 20 miles north up the M5 in Worcestershire she would be playing for "the west midlands"

[bigpaul]

I couldn't care less what her team calls itself.and what the hell has that got to do with the OP anyway, it started off as Devon and Cornwall!!! can someone please start a thread about refugee's going to Lancashire or Yorkshire or Scotland please? this is now getting boring and onesided.

---

I'm very fast coming round to NR's idea about private areas.

---

I think I must have missed the thread about "lets have a go at the yokels week".

[NorthernRaider]

Central Wales, the Lake District inc the Eden valley, a fair chunk of coastal Scotland E & W, a bit of Anglia and the Fens all have much going for them as places for preppers to start nest building.

[CharlesHarris]

Not sure how the format will transfer, but this US emergency management conference has useful points for planning:

West Virginia Urban-Rural Evacuation State Planners Workshop
Federal Emergency Management Agency September 19 - 22, 2006
Potential for an Uncontrolled Mass Evacuation of the DC Metro Area as a Result of a Terrorist Attack:

A Report of Survey Findings
Identify breadth and scope of problem
Clarify the regional issues associated with the problem.
Discuss regional strategies and possible solutions to address the problem.
Identify low hanging fruit opportunities to get work done
- Collaborate on integrated regional evacuation plan
- MOU’s between states

Public potential response

Implication of a catastrophic terrorist attack in Washington, DC: Mass evacuation

Will Washington, D.C. metro area residents evacuate following a terrorist attack?

If so, under what scenarios? If so, where might they go? Key Findings

The public’s perceived risk of terror events is high:

Large scale, uncontrolled self-evacuation will occur as a result of a terrorist attack

Mass self-evacuation events are likely to be chaotic:
▪ stated target destinations are highly dispersed
▪ a large proportion of the public state a willingness to leave even absent specific event information

Conclusion

Planning for a large scale, chaotic evacuation into rural areas and states proximate to the DC Metro area warrants serious consideration.

Reported Propensity to Self-Evacuate

Presented with three types of terror incident scenarios, respondents who said they were “very” or “somewhat likely” to leave the area immediately:

Type of Attack “Very” & “Somewhat Likely”
Nuclear 83%
Radiological 76%
Chemical 67%

Distribution of above responses by state: No statistically significant differences between residents of MD, VA, WV

Information Sources on Self-Evacuation Decisions

What would your most important sources of information be in the aftermath of an event?
- 43% - News coverage of event
- 43% - Government announcements

If there were no local news coverage of the event available, would you stay in place?
- 67% - Likely to Stay
- 33% - Likely to Leave

Inference
Given ● the size of the population surrounding the DC area
● the reported propensity to self-evacuate, overwhelmingly by automobile,
● the distribution of target destinations,
● the perceived vulnerability of harm to terror attacks and anticipation of multiple attacks

Result: ● A large-scale, chaotic mass self-evacuation should be anticipated

Likelihood of respondent willingness to adhere to a shelter or evacuation directive – by “very likely” responses:

Type of
Attack: Very likely to shelter in place Very likely to evacuate
Nuclear 60.6% 79.9%
Radiological 65.3% 77.5%
Chemical 65.9% 75.7%

How much confidence do you have that the federal government has adequate evacuation plans in place to deal with a…
A natural disaster event?----a great amount---a moderate amount---very little----no trust at all
-----------------------------6.6%------------36.8%---------------38.2%------18.5%
A terrorist event? ------------7.5%------------36.3%---------------39.1%------17.1%

Summary Observations

The survey data indicate:

Residents in the DC area express a relatively high degree of anticipated vulnerability to terror attacks
Residents express a high propensity to self-evacuate and evacuation destinations are likely to be widely distributed geographically

Absent available local information, a large proportion of area residents are likely to evacuate

Residents also express low confidence in governmental evacuation planning on disaster events

“Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations – National Capital Region”

Control the Entry Points

- Primary/Secondary routes “Support is there if you stay the course”
- Information feed and flow (Public Radio, ITS, checkpoints)
- KEEP THEM MOVING! Pass-through Movement

Contraflow evacuation
- WVDOT Emergency Operation and Personnel Support

Secondary Routing to Support Emergency Operations
- Private Airstrips
- State Secondary & County Routes

Route Management Issues

Early Warning
Traffic Control
- Choke Points
- Breakdowns
- Accidents
- Flow

Fuel supply
Limited Assets
- Personnel
- Equipment
- Highway Routes
- Capacity

Time of Year/Weather/Terrain

[NorthernRaider]

Thank you Charles, that is very insightful and worth noting.

[Midnitemo]

I know its sounds picky , pedantic possibly but you have to use the correct description/title of something , you can't use you're own preferred name just cos you don't like or agree with the new official name... it leads to missunderstandings and mistakes...not having a go at yokel's just like stuff right so we all know what we are talking about.

[Scythe13]

Are we not talking about Zombie Dinosaurs then?

[Devonian]

(26 March 2014, 19:21)Midnitemo Wrote: I know its sounds picky , pedantic possibly but you have to use the correct description/title of something , you can't use you're own preferred name just cos you don't like or agree with the new official name... it leads to missunderstandings and mistakes...not having a go at yokel's just like stuff right so we all know what we are talking about.

I think that the problem is the SW boundaries being referred to by NR and Midnitemo are the OLD "Political" boundaries created by John Major in 1994 and abolished by the coalition Government in 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regions_of_England

These political boundaries were created for 'Administrative Reason' only and are not the 'Geographic'; 'Cultural' or 'Historic' boundaries accepted by the people living in the areas.

For example people in Gloucester and Swindon would not normally describe themselves as being from the South West; even people from Bristol would normally refer to themselves as coming from the 'Westcountry' rather than the SW.

Looking at the nine (OLD, now defunct!) administrative zones of England, the problem also exists with the South East, afterall how many of us would genuinely say that the New Forest was located in the South East!!

So when talking about regions I think we need to very clear about what we mean and the use of the South West as including Hampshire; Wiltshire; Gloucestershire etc are not really very conducive to the discussion and are simply being used to justify or argue against specific points of view (by both sides!).

[Midnitemo]

These area's haven't ceased to be just there Autonomy has been taken away and they are managed by a combination of local and central mandarins now.

---

typical divide and rule by a paranoid flawed and weak administration

[Devonian]

(26 March 2014, 23:50)Midnitemo Wrote: These area's haven't ceased to be just there Autonomy has been taken away and they are managed by a combination of local and central mandarins now.

---

typical divide and rule by a paranoid flawed and weak administration

Agreed, but they are Political Administrative Zones, as opposed to geographic regions.